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This xG nonsense


woodlebert said:
i'm not sure you understand xg
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I'm very sure he doesn't
Binxy said:
Of course I understand it.

Put it this way if the exact same chance fell to Erling Haaland and John Kay (one for the oldies) they'd both have the exact same XG, but who's most likely to score?

What gets me is when they produce league tables based on XG, it's bullshit.
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It's not.
It's another measure amongst many others like Possession, tackles, crosses, distance ran, headers won, shots etc etc. None of these win you the game or tell the whole story, neither does XG. Put them all together and it gives you a decent view of how the team is performing overall in relation to others and can help to spot areas of weakness.
It also doesn't tell you how many games you're winning - that's what the score does.
 
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KCB1998 said:
I'm very sure he doesn't

It's not.
It's another measure amongst many others like Possession, tackles, crosses, distance ran, headers won, shots etc etc. None of these win you the game or tell the whole story, neither does XG. Put them all together and it gives you a decent view of how the team is performing overall in relation to others and can help to spot areas of weakness.
It also doesn't tell you how many games you're winning - that's what the score does.
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I'll tell you what is a load of bullshit, when they start producing league tables based on XG.
 
Binxy said:
I'll tell you what is a load of bullshit, when they start producing league tables based on XG.
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Yeah but it’s not just xG. They simulate every game 10000 times based on the chances created in the game to determine a final score

It’s not just hmm Sunderland had 2 xG and Chelsea 1 xG that means Sunderland win 2-1
 
chunkyshanhawk53 said:
People get way too upset about it. It’s just another stat like corners, shots, possession.

It’s an indicator, and can be misleading sometimes. But I don’t get why people get so angry about it
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This is correct, of course. I saw a stat somewhere that showed that usually in the PL there is a pretty good correlation between xG difference and actual goal difference, but that there are always outliers (just like every other decent stat out there).
 
Two biggest xG overachievers this season have been us and Villa by a long shot.

Form table over the last 10 games:

SAFC - 15th, 2 wins
Villa - 8th

Last 6 games:

SAFC - 15th
Villa - 11th

Obviously a superb season for us regardless, but the xG numbers once again proving to not be the rubbish that many think they always are, as results for both start to fall in line with same.
 
The Situation said:
Two biggest xG overachievers this season have been us and Villa by a long shot.

Form table over the last 10 games:

SAFC - 15th, 2 wins
Villa - 8th

Last 6 games:

SAFC - 15th
Villa - 11th

Obviously a superb season for us regardless, but the xG numbers once again proving to not be the rubbish that many think they always are, as results for both start to fall in line with same.
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Over a sustained period, they tend to always be on point.
 
jcrossan said:
If the Premier league table was set according to this xG silliness, that pundits are always mentioning and we are supposed to take seriously, we would be 4th bottom, just ahead of Aston Villa who would be 16th.

Thankfully we play on grass and not inside a computer program.
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Xg seemed to suggest us and Villa were in a false position. 🤔
 
We’re reverting to the mean, like xG predicted. All it’s doing is measuring the quality of chances created and conceded - something people have always discussed after a game - but for some reason as soon as statisticians tried to put a number on these chances old and/or ignorant people - who took no time to understand it and probably have crap maths grades - decided it was bollocks.
 
The Situation said:
Two biggest xG overachievers this season have been us and Villa by a long shot.

Form table over the last 10 games:

SAFC - 15th, 2 wins
Villa - 8th

Last 6 games:

SAFC - 15th
Villa - 11th

Obviously a superb season for us regardless, but the xG numbers once again proving to not be the rubbish that many think they always are, as results for both start to fall in line with same.
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4 wins in 14 now.

16th in the form table over the last 10 games.

18th in the form table over the last 6 games.

Again, obviously a superb season regardless considering we were massive odds-on to go down before a ball was kicked, but xG proving once again not to be the "nonsense" so many think it is.

It has been coming for quite a while.

Looking ahead, one concerning aspect is that there's a huge correlation between teams who significantly overperform their xG and how much they struggle the following season.

Again whilst it has been a superb season, it would have only taken a couple of games we got something from in spite of our xG performance to go the other way and we'd be very nervous going into the last 8.

Fine margins.

Any thoughts, @jcrossan?
 
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