Russia invading Ukraine (NEWS/UPDATES) - Please put sensitive content behind a spoiler

ealing bee said:
"Simple" Or do you mean "simplistic"?

Russia in 2022 differs from the USSR in the 1980's in several important respects:
1. With the USSR, you had a multi-national, multi-ethnic empire, spanning a huge geographical spread. This made keeping control by any method other than extreme repression (eg Hungary 1956, Czechoslovakia 1968) ever more difficult.

2. At the same time, there emerged relatively progressive leaders like Gorbachev and Yeltsin, who recognised the inherent contradictictions and weaknesses in the USSR, but crucially weren't prepared to send in the army any more to keep control. Remember Solidarnosc in Poland, for instance? Therefore they gave up without firing a shot before "defeat" became inevitable.

3. Meanwhile, in those days, the USSR had nothing to export abroad, bar weapons to their allies in Africa etc.

4. Crucially, after Richard Nixon's "ping pong diplomacy from 1972 on, the USA managed to divert China from its former alliance with the USSR.

Whereas today, Russia is very different:
1. Whether you like it or not, Russia is a reasonably united, homegeneous and smaller state, where there is nothing like the disunity which was corroding the old USSR from within.

2. Putin doesn't give a stuff how much ordinary Russian citizens suffer, so he will run the economy into the ground to maintain personal control, backed up by the Army, Police and FSB etc.

3. As well as oil and gas, Russia today has valuable minerals and other natural resources which will still find an export market somewhere, even if at vastly reduced margins due to sanctions etc. While Russia is also a net exporter of food, which will always find a market, unlike the old USSR which had to import food from the West, or steal it from its satellite states like Poland and (ahem) Ukraine.

4. Presently, China is moving back towards an alliance with Russia, not away from them.

But yeah, apart from that, it's exactly the same....

P.S. It took 35 years of concerted pressure to bust open the USSR. It's still less than a decade since we were forging alliances with Putin - remember the G8 summit in the UK in 2013?
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There is a growing unrest on the ground in Russia.

What people say about putin in public and in private are two different things.

Just like in the USSR days.

Wait until the Russian army runs out of steam at the end of this month.

Then the Rasputitsa comes.

It’s going to be a dark and depressing winter in Russia, the sort where plans are made.

An Arab spring is coming.
 


smoker said:
Delighted to be proven right about this shitgibbon. If he'd been in charge Ukraine would have got nowt from us.

www.theguardian.com

Jeremy Corbyn urges west to stop arming Ukraine

Ex-Labour leader also tells Beirut-based TV channel he was criticised over antisemitism because of stance on Palestine
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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He's a tankie. Same idiots who made excuses when Russia invaded Hungary and Czechoslovakia
 
ealing bee said:
I agree, Ukraine cannot, will not and should not settle for anything short of a complete restoration of their sovereignty, incl Crimea.

But my whole point is that Ukraine is completely dependant upon the West for military, economic and political support.

And I don't believe we can depend upon (a united) West to maintain that support to the bitter end. I sincerely hope I'm wrong, but I fear that they/we will compromise at something short of that to get it over with, which will mean giving Putin some sort of "Golden Bridge" over which to retreat.

So where was the Budapest Memorandum when Putin annexed Ukraine eight years ago? Fact is, we did sod all since when it comes to it, we simply didnt care enough about Crimea (or Ukraine, for that matter).

And what state will Ukraine be in (physically) once we've pulverised Russia's army?

Putin simply would not care how much damage he caused, or how many casualties he incurred, in continuing a conflict where his only option was unconditional surrender or withdrawal.

I mean, just google "Chechnya", to see how far he's prepared to go.
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Make up your mind. First you are gung-ho Ukraine must get all its territory then you twist 180⁰ and bleat on about the country being flattened if Ukraine fights to defeat the Russian invasion.

I do not believe we, the US, Poland, The Baltic States or Finland would push Ukraine to an enforced peace treaty. The UK and USA might not know how long or how much money supporting Ukraine in this war will take, but what we do know is if Putin's Russia isn't defeated then we only achieve a temporary peace.

We need only look at WW1 to see how an incomplete victory led to the expense of WW2.

Even worse, China will see pushing Ukraine into a territory-ceeding peace agreement as a green light for invading Taiwan, knowing that the US won't stand by its commitments.

UK and US know that we didn't do enough in 2014 and how that has led only to the current invasion. That is why I can't see us selling Ukraine short now.

One thing is certain, helping Ukraine win and reconstruct their country will be cheaper than not helping them win.
 
lurker said:
An Arab spring is coming [for Russia].
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I'd like to think so.

But I don't see the faintest sign of it.

And if ever there was a sign, you can be certain Putin's paid goons would be down on it in an instant.

But still, if you have any real evidence, beyond wishful thinking, I'd certainly be open to reading it.
 
Schnauzer said:
Make up your mind. First you are gung-ho Ukraine must get all its territory then you twist 180⁰ and bleat on about the country being flattened if Ukraine fights to defeat the Russian invasion.

I do not believe we, the US, Poland, The Baltic States or Finland would push Ukraine to an enforced peace treaty. The UK and USA might not know how long or how much money supporting Ukraine in this war will take, but what we do know is if Putin's Russia isn't defeated then we only achieve a temporary peace.

We need only look at WW1 to see how an incomplete victory led to the expense of WW2.

Even worse, China will see pushing Ukraine into a territory-ceeding peace agreement as a green light for invading Taiwan, knowing that the US won't stand by its commitments.

UK and US know that we didn't do enough in 2014 and how that has led only to the current invasion. That is why I can't see us selling Ukraine short now.

One thing is certain, helping Ukraine win and reconstruct their country will be cheaper than not helping them win.
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ealing bee said:
I'd like to think so.

But I don't see the faintest sign of it.

And if ever there was a sign, you can be certain Putin's paid goons would be down on it in an instant.

But still, if you have any real evidence, beyond wishful thinking, I'd certainly be open to reading it.
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Funny how my opinions need evidence but yours doesn’t eh?

Pulling a bit overtime tonight are we?
 
elder said:
as someone who served in an armoured regiment, i'm really glad i don't any more... not sure how close the person is who fired the missile was but it seems they would not have been able to view the tank partly or whole when they did fire it.

the other tank(s) get the fuck out of dodge straight away

https://twitter.com/x/status/1549962515395842048
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Oh but Ukraine are losing @ealing bee says we’ve got no chance but to ultimately try and broker a deal :D
Brian Griffin said:
You need to keep the nukes under one command.

Putin will die at some point
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Once the launch codes rotate they’re redundant anyway. Large paperweights.
 
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Schnauzer said:
Make up your mind. First you are gung-ho Ukraine must get all its territory then you twist 180⁰ and bleat on about the country being flattened if Ukraine fights to defeat the Russian invasion.
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Jeez, I really didn't think it that hard to understand what I was saying, never mind infer a contradiction where none exists.

So I'll repeat it one final time.

Morally and legally, Ukraine has the right to see every last Russian kicked out of the whole of Ukraine, including Crimea and I certainly would support them in that.

But quite clearly it cannot do so without continued 100% backing from the West.

And my fear is that the longer it goes on, with Putin carrying on the fight come-what-may, elements in the West will get weary, the present unity will fracture, and they/we will force Ukraine to compromise, at least to the extent of granting Putin a "Golden Bridge".

Of course I could be wrong - and I sincerely hope I am - but by any reading oif history, both modern and longer term, there are any number of precedents to support such a prognosis.

Further, how any of that makes me some sort of an appeaser, never mind a "shill", as some have dubbed me, is just wifully stupid, if not offensive.

Schnauzer said:
I do not believe we, the US, Poland, The Baltic States or Finland would push Ukraine to an enforced peace treaty. The UK and USA might not know how long or how much money supporting Ukraine in this war will take, but what we do know is if Putin's Russia isn't defeated then we only achieve a temporary peace.

We need only look at WW1 to see how an incomplete victory led to the expense of WW2.

Even worse, China will see pushing Ukraine into a territory-ceeding peace agreement as a green light for invading Taiwan, knowing that the US won't stand by its commitments.

UK and US know that we didn't do enough in 2014 and how that has led only to the current invasion. That is why I can't see us selling Ukraine short now.

One thing is certain, helping Ukraine win and reconstruct their country will be cheaper than not helping them win.
Click to expand...
That is your opinion and I respect it.

My opinion differs in a number of critical aspects, which I've tried to explain.

I would appreciate if you (and others) accorded me the same respect in return.
lurker said:
Oh but Ukraine are losing @ealing bee says we’ve got no chance but to ultimately try and broker a deal :D
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Jeez, it's like Father Ted trying to explain perspective to Father Dougal!

Nowhere have I said that the West couldn't defeat Putin (though imo it would prove much harder than some people seem to think).

Rather I fear that it may become so expensive, messy and protracted that eventually the unity will fracture, war weariness will kick in, and they/we will impose some sort of fudge on Ukraine that will persuade Putin to fuck off back to Russia before he's completely defeated.

Of course, as others have pointed out, it should prove cheaper in the long run to sort him out this time once and for all, I get that.

But when have our political leaders ever looked beyond the next short term consideration of where their own personal interests lie?

"Er, Mr. President, the last quarter's economic figures have just come in and they're not looking good. What do you reckon we should do now?"
 
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ealing bee said:
I'd like to think so.

But I don't see the faintest sign of it.

And if ever there was a sign, you can be certain Putin's paid goons would be down on it in an instant.

But still, if you have any real evidence, beyond wishful thinking, I'd certainly be open to reading it.
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past history.

Russia has done this before, more than once when things have gone bad.

It is also thought Starlin was bumped off, dont think we will ever know for sure, but plenty of accounts that the night he died of strange going on, like the fact Starlin who was obsessive about his personal security told his guards to leave and not disturb him, many years later one of the guards claims it was the head of security, Khrustalev, that gave the order claiming it came from Stalin. Speculation suggests Khrustalev was the culprit and acted under the orders of Beria.
Any assassination would need to be kept secret because Stalin’s Cult of Personality meant most Soviets revered him, at least in public.

Also if you have noticed tyrants tend to fall when they look weak, happens all the time, once Putin starts to look weak things will change faster than expected, the yes men we see today in public doesn't mean they are yes men in private, one of the reason why Stalin may have been removed was the fear he could take the USSR into a 3rd world war, as he was becoming more and more out of control

I see a lot of similarities, where the people in power are scared of Putin and support him in public and there is a cult of Putin in the public, but he has also had some ill health issues and seems to be losing it, maybe if things get worse his ill health will do him in, like Stalin...

IMO this war in part is because of issues at home, I get the feeling Putin needed a win and has misjudged the whole campaign, we have already seen its not a united front, plenty of discontent already, next few months will be very telling.

History does tend to repeat itself.
 
ealing bee said:
Jeez, I really didn't think it that hard to understand what I was saying, never mind infer a contradiction where none exists.

So I'll repeat it one final time.

Morally and legally, Ukraine has the right to see every last Russian kicked out of the whole of Ukraine, including Crimea and I certainly would support them in that.

But quite clearly it cannot do so without continued 100% backing from the West.

And my fear is that the longer it goes on, with Putin carrying on the fight come-what-may, elements in the West will get weary, the present unity will fracture, and they/we will force Ukraine to compromise, at least to the extent of granting Putin a "Golden Bridge".

Of course I could be wrong - and I sincerely hope I am - but by any reading oif history, both modern and longer term, there are any number of precedents to support such a prognosis.

Further, how any of that makes me some sort of an appeaser, never mind a "shill", as some have dubbed me, is just wifully stupid, if not offensive.


That is your opinion and I respect it.

My opinion differs in a number of critical aspects, which I've tried to explain.

I would appreciate if you (and others) accorded me the same respect in return.

Jeez, it's like Father Ted trying to explain perspective to Father Dougal!

Nowhere have I said that the West couldn't defeat Putin (though imo it would prove much harder than some people seem to think).

Rather I fear that it may become so expensive, messy and protracted that eventually the unity will fracture, war weariness will kick in, and they/we will impose some sort of fudge on Ukraine that will persuade Putin to fuck off back to Russia before he's completely defeated.

Of course, as others have pointed out, it should prove cheaper in the long run to sort him out this time once and for all, I get that.

But when have our political leaders ever looked beyond the next short term consideration of where their own personal interests lie?

"Er, Mr. President, the last quarter's economic figures have just come in and they're not looking good. What do you reckon we should do now?"
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So when you said 'And what state will Ukraine be in (physically) once we've pulverised Russia's army?' you weren't implying that Ukraine should give up and negotiate a peace before then? That is how I read your intent otherwise why would you even mention it if you support Ukraine fighting to get back to its 2013 borders?

After all, it is your fear that the cohesive support of western governments will waver and fracture over financial costs and not over any care for the damage being inflicted upon Ukraine.

You are entitled to your opinion, and I certainly haven't called you a Russian shill or troll or anything. I'm only interested in what I perceive as an inconsistency in your discussion.

Finally I'll round off with what I consider the foundation of my belief that Western support for Ukraine will remain solid;

The west tends to fight for aný of ideology, geopolitics or petrochemicals. Ukraine has plenty of onshore oil and gas but there is plenty more under its Black Sea region of exclusive economic interest and it needs to reclaim Crimea to secure a large part of that area.

The USA and Europe will keep on backing Ukraine to secure a democracy, to move Russia's Black Sea fleet to the eastern shores well away from Moldova (thus further isolating Transnistria). Most of all they will support Ukraine's fight to establish it as a petro rival to Russia, something of interest to the whole EU and Turkey - security of gas supply as well as having a competitor to help drive prices down.
elder said:
as someone who served in an armoured regiment, i'm really glad i don't any more...
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The missile wouldn't have hit if the tank was fitted with the Trophy protective system.
 
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ealing bee said:
Jeez, I really didn't think it that hard to understand what I was saying, never mind infer a contradiction where none exists.

So I'll repeat it one final time.

Morally and legally, Ukraine has the right to see every last Russian kicked out of the whole of Ukraine, including Crimea and I certainly would support them in that.

But quite clearly it cannot do so without continued 100% backing from the West.

And my fear is that the longer it goes on, with Putin carrying on the fight come-what-may, elements in the West will get weary, the present unity will fracture, and they/we will force Ukraine to compromise, at least to the extent of granting Putin a "Golden Bridge".

Of course I could be wrong - and I sincerely hope I am - but by any reading oif history, both modern and longer term, there are any number of precedents to support such a prognosis.

Further, how any of that makes me some sort of an appeaser, never mind a "shill", as some have dubbed me, is just wifully stupid, if not offensive.


That is your opinion and I respect it.

My opinion differs in a number of critical aspects, which I've tried to explain.

I would appreciate if you (and others) accorded me the same respect in return.

Jeez, it's like Father Ted trying to explain perspective to Father Dougal!

Nowhere have I said that the West couldn't defeat Putin (though imo it would prove much harder than some people seem to think).

Rather I fear that it may become so expensive, messy and protracted that eventually the unity will fracture, war weariness will kick in, and they/we will impose some sort of fudge on Ukraine that will persuade Putin to fuck off back to Russia before he's completely defeated.

Of course, as others have pointed out, it should prove cheaper in the long run to sort him out this time once and for all, I get that.

But when have our political leaders ever looked beyond the next short term consideration of where their own personal interests lie?

"Er, Mr. President, the last quarter's economic figures have just come in and they're not looking good. What do you reckon we should do now?"
Click to expand...
It’s been very cheap to wage war so far.

Hope this helps.

Keep calm and carry on eh?
 

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