Posted this before, I used to look at it this way when were trying to stay up. There are normally 5-7 teams you pretty much expect to get no points from home and away. This season I put that as 7.
Man City
Chelsea
Liverpool
Tottenham
Arsenal
Man Utd
Leicester City
You can argue that all you like and maybe this season add West Ham and take Leicester out, but not many of us would give the mags much chance home or away against the teams I have listed above. So far they have only played three of those games (and lost them all). So they still have 11 of those 14 games to play. One of their problems is that they have to play 5 more of them BEFORE the transfer window opens. These are, Man Utd and Man City at home and Arsenal, Leicester and Liverpool away. There is normally a freak result or two and they maybe could muster 3-4 pts from these remaining 11 games if they get lucky or improve massively in the window, but I would not put much money on that.
That leaves the other 12 clubs where they need to get their points from to stay up. Lets say they need 37 pts and get 3 from the 'tough' games. That means they need 34 pts from the 24 games v the rest. So far they have played 9 of those games and got 6 draws and 3 defeats.
Everyone expects them to imrpove in the window but lets face it, Mbappe isn't coming just yet. They have three more of these 'easier' games to play before the window opens which are Norwich and Burnley at home and Everton away.
Those two home games are massive and the very definition of 'must win'. If they get only say 3-4 pts from those three games (or worse) then the equation becomes almost impossible for them.
They will still have 6 of the tougher games to play after the window opens and they are not going to become a City or a Chelsea overnight and I would still expect them to loose the vast majority of those matches. That leaves them 12 games v the rest after the window opens to get maybe 24 pts.
The recent draws v Palace, Brighton and Brentford are all terrible results for them. 3 winnable games that they will have targetted and they won none of them.
PS - Another way to look at it, they have 26 games left, 15 in my winnable group and 11 in my not so winnable group. They have actually had a very easy start fixture wise. They have already played 37.5% of their winnable games and only 21.4% of their tougher matches.
If this was one of our previous relegation fighting seasons I would have had the prayer mats out by now (no pun intended).