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Takeover News/Rumours

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Folks can we not put this bloody thread to be bed once and for all. We know theres gonna be no takeover, gobsite SD is to throwing the dice at another pop at promotion...
 
Soton Pete said:
You think they've got enough money to keep going, if so where is it coming from?
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Essentially from one of two sources: FPP's loan, or from Madrox to service the money they have said they will pay back.

I think we likely all understand that last year, the FPP loan wasn't particularly used for any substantial purpose. Yeah, I know, "The lifts!" but the point being that a few grand here or there was pittance. very few player purchases, very little staff movement, basically nothing that cost even £500k, let alone £9m.

Furlough, Season Ticket revenue and EFL help mean that it's unlikely we made a loss during the first lockdown - I'd estimate a maximum of £250k and possibly even less than that. Remember that when Lockdown 1 hit with only 5 home games of the season left, we had essentially received the vast majority of forecast revenue for 2019/20.

On that basis, I personally believe there was at least £8m left in the pot at the start of the new financial/football year in August, if not more, but I don't see any compelling reason to believe it was less than that, because we were not forecast to make a loss last season.

We will have been hit by season card sales. We sold 22,000 in 2019 and 12,000 in 2020. That is a drop of around 45% (or 3.5m). You can add on a further £2m lost if we can't host any home games for hospitality revenue. There are also merchandise and other revenue which we can add on as £1m or so. Essentially, I think that he has 'lost' around £6m in cash.

What complicates matters are three things

  1. External help - I think in the end somewhere between £1.5-2.5m will be made available via various means, but that is still in discussion.
  2. TV/Streaming revenue - as much as £2.5m could be recouped by that, it's difficult to know without knowing viewing figures and season card refunds, but let's take £1.5m as a reasonable estimate.
  3. Season card refunds - a proportion of the £3.5m will need to be paid back, but I'd estimate it's unlikely to be all of it because many fans won't cancel and others will have taken the streaming option. Let's say £1.75m.

Altogether, my estimate is that the losses are in the £4m range, or £350k a month. Bad? Yeah, but nowhere near a problem for Madrox. They most likely use part of the FPP money loaned to pay it, ie: kick the can down the road and pay that back when it's owed, or they fork out for the money they (used to) owe the club and said they'd pay back. I'd class the latter as less likely because if I were in their situation, I'd work specifically using the money from FPP and leave my own ambiguous debt back into SAFC as something negotiable in a sale.

So that's why I don't think we're going bust in the near future.
 
KittenMittens said:
Essentially from one of two sources: FPP's loan, or from Madrox to service the money they have said they will pay back.

I think we likely all understand that last year, the FPP loan wasn't particularly used for any substantial purpose. Yeah, I know, "The lifts!" but the point being that a few grand here or there was pittance. very few player purchases, very little staff movement, basically nothing that cost even £500k, let alone £9m.

Furlough, Season Ticket revenue and EFL help mean that it's unlikely we made a loss during the first lockdown - I'd estimate a maximum of £250k and possibly even less than that. Remember that when Lockdown 1 hit with only 5 home games of the season left, we had essentially received the vast majority of forecast revenue for 2019/20.

On that basis, I personally believe there was at least £8m left in the pot at the start of the new financial/football year in August, if not more, but I don't see any compelling reason to believe it was less than that, because we were not forecast to make a loss last season.

We will have been hit by season card sales. We sold 22,000 in 2019 and 12,000 in 2020. That is a drop of around 45% (or 3.5m). You can add on a further £2m lost if we can't host any home games for hospitality revenue. There are also merchandise and other revenue which we can add on as £1m or so. Essentially, I think that he has 'lost' around £6m in cash.

What complicates matters are three things

  1. External help - I think in the end somewhere between £1.5-2.5m will be made available via various means, but that is still in discussion.
  2. TV/Streaming revenue - as much as £2.5m could be recouped by that, it's difficult to know without knowing viewing figures and season card refunds, but let's take £1.5m as a reasonable estimate.
  3. Season card refunds - a proportion of the £3.5m will need to be paid back, but I'd estimate it's unlikely to be all of it because many fans won't cancel and others will have taken the streaming option. Let's say £1.75m.

Altogether, my estimate is that the losses are in the £4m range, or £350k a month. Bad? Yeah, but nowhere near a problem for Madrox. They most likely use part of the FPP money loaned to pay it, ie: kick the can down the road and pay that back when it's owed, or they fork out for the money they (used to) owe the club and said they'd pay back. I'd class the latter as less likely because if I were in their situation, I'd work specifically using the money from FPP and leave my own ambiguous debt back into SAFC as something negotiable in a sale.

So that's why I don't think we're going bust in the near future.
Click to expand...
We'll be going bust still within 20 posts of what you've just typed
 
KittenMittens said:
Essentially from one of two sources: FPP's loan, or from Madrox to service the money they have said they will pay back.

I think we likely all understand that last year, the FPP loan wasn't particularly used for any substantial purpose. Yeah, I know, "The lifts!" but the point being that a few grand here or there was pittance. very few player purchases, very little staff movement, basically nothing that cost even £500k, let alone £9m.

Furlough, Season Ticket revenue and EFL help mean that it's unlikely we made a loss during the first lockdown - I'd estimate a maximum of £250k and possibly even less than that. Remember that when Lockdown 1 hit with only 5 home games of the season left, we had essentially received the vast majority of forecast revenue for 2019/20.

On that basis, I personally believe there was at least £8m left in the pot at the start of the new financial/football year in August, if not more, but I don't see any compelling reason to believe it was less than that, because we were not forecast to make a loss last season.

We will have been hit by season card sales. We sold 22,000 in 2019 and 12,000 in 2020. That is a drop of around 45% (or 3.5m). You can add on a further £2m lost if we can't host any home games for hospitality revenue. There are also merchandise and other revenue which we can add on as £1m or so. Essentially, I think that he has 'lost' around £6m in cash.

What complicates matters are three things

  1. External help - I think in the end somewhere between £1.5-2.5m will be made available via various means, but that is still in discussion.
  2. TV/Streaming revenue - as much as £2.5m could be recouped by that, it's difficult to know without knowing viewing figures and season card refunds, but let's take £1.5m as a reasonable estimate.
  3. Season card refunds - a proportion of the £3.5m will need to be paid back, but I'd estimate it's unlikely to be all of it because many fans won't cancel and others will have taken the streaming option. Let's say £1.75m.

Altogether, my estimate is that the losses are in the £4m range, or £350k a month. Bad? Yeah, but nowhere near a problem for Madrox. They most likely use part of the FPP money loaned to pay it, ie: kick the can down the road and pay that back when it's owed, or they fork out for the money they (used to) owe the club and said they'd pay back. I'd class the latter as less likely because if I were in their situation, I'd work specifically using the money from FPP and leave my own ambiguous debt back into SAFC as something negotiable in a sale.

So that's why I don't think we're going bust in the near future.
Click to expand...
I'd like to see our streaming figures like. I know quite a few people who cancelled season cards who've paid for every single stream so far. If they do that right to the end of the season they'll actually put more money into the club than they would've done buying a season card. Equally some of the away games where we'd maybe get 1,000 £20 tickets to sell we could be selling over 10,000 streaming passes and actually be making a considerably larger amount for away games to offset the considerable loss on the home ones
 
I agree. I try to be conservative with my estimates, but there's definitely scope for a lot more revenue via some of these channels. As we hit the end of the season it could definitely be the case that streaming could earn the club at least the same, if not more money on a per-game basis and as you say, with away games factored in, would perhaps be enough to generate a profit.

But yeah, in a nutshell, there's almost zero chance of us going bust or the amount of money in itself being enough to force Donald out. It's not a nice amount, but it's not beyond paying no matter whether you're at the upper or lower estimate.
 
Sunderland must have tremendous valuation for "good will" and Donald will want to see that in the offer price.
In the current climate that must be a difficult negotiation.
 
The Beautiful Game said:
I'd like to see our streaming figures like. I know quite a few people who cancelled season cards who've paid for every single stream so far. If they do that right to the end of the season they'll actually put more money into the club than they would've done buying a season card. Equally some of the away games where we'd maybe get 1,000 £20 tickets to sell we could be selling over 10,000 streaming passes and actually be making a considerably larger amount for away games to offset the considerable loss on the home ones
Click to expand...

Can't remember where I saw it quoted but I'm sure it was mentioned that one of our away games was 8,000 streams so the club would have got about £75,000 (minus VAT before GOM pulls me on it). So for away games I reckon we'll be fine, probably making a lot more than we do from fans attending away games normally. Trouble is if we also only get £80,000 for home games then obviously that's a massive hit
 
KittenMittens said:
Essentially from one of two sources: FPP's loan, or from Madrox to service the money they have said they will pay back.

I think we likely all understand that last year, the FPP loan wasn't particularly used for any substantial purpose. Yeah, I know, "The lifts!" but the point being that a few grand here or there was pittance. very few player purchases, very little staff movement, basically nothing that cost even £500k, let alone £9m.

Furlough, Season Ticket revenue and EFL help mean that it's unlikely we made a loss during the first lockdown - I'd estimate a maximum of £250k and possibly even less than that. Remember that when Lockdown 1 hit with only 5 home games of the season left, we had essentially received the vast majority of forecast revenue for 2019/20.

On that basis, I personally believe there was at least £8m left in the pot at the start of the new financial/football year in August, if not more, but I don't see any compelling reason to believe it was less than that, because we were not forecast to make a loss last season.

We will have been hit by season card sales. We sold 22,000 in 2019 and 12,000 in 2020. That is a drop of around 45% (or 3.5m). You can add on a further £2m lost if we can't host any home games for hospitality revenue. There are also merchandise and other revenue which we can add on as £1m or so. Essentially, I think that he has 'lost' around £6m in cash.

What complicates matters are three things

  1. External help - I think in the end somewhere between £1.5-2.5m will be made available via various means, but that is still in discussion.
  2. TV/Streaming revenue - as much as £2.5m could be recouped by that, it's difficult to know without knowing viewing figures and season card refunds, but let's take £1.5m as a reasonable estimate.
  3. Season card refunds - a proportion of the £3.5m will need to be paid back, but I'd estimate it's unlikely to be all of it because many fans won't cancel and others will have taken the streaming option. Let's say £1.75m.

Altogether, my estimate is that the losses are in the £4m range, or £350k a month. Bad? Yeah, but nowhere near a problem for Madrox. They most likely use part of the FPP money loaned to pay it, ie: kick the can down the road and pay that back when it's owed, or they fork out for the money they (used to) owe the club and said they'd pay back. I'd class the latter as less likely because if I were in their situation, I'd work specifically using the money from FPP and leave my own ambiguous debt back into SAFC as something negotiable in a sale.

So that's why I don't think we're going bust in the near future.
Click to expand...

When Ian Botham casually dropped in his mate Rodwell said we were losing £450k a home game I'd say that averaged at £900k per month. Not sure if he was right but no reason to say it if it wasn't true, a strange thing just to drop in.
 
Guinness Guzzler said:
Can't remember where I saw it quoted but I'm sure it was mentioned that one of our away games was 8,000 streams so the club would have got about £75,000 (minus VAT before GOM pulls me on it). So for away games I reckon we'll be fine, probably making a lot more than we do from fans attending away games normally. Trouble is if we also only get £80,000 for home games then obviously that's a massive hit
Click to expand...
Aye home games we’re taking a hit. There’s obviously things like hospitality and catering losses associated too unlike for the aways.

I’m surprised that it’s as low as 8,000 like especially with overseas supporters etc but suppose people who live in the same house won’t all be buying their own streams
 
The Beautiful Game said:
Aye home games we’re taking a hit. There’s obviously things like hospitality and catering losses associated too unlike for the aways.

I’m surprised that it’s as low as 8,000 like especially with overseas supporters etc but suppose people who live in the same house won’t all be buying their own streams
Click to expand...

Might actually be less than 8,000, just seen it was in the echo (apologies for the website!)
You must be logged on to see external links
so around about 8,000 streams per game but that seems to include the opposition as well. Presumably we'd be the lions share mind.

Looking at that maybe 6-7k buying our streams. Which I think is about what I'd expect. As you say there's lots of families where 2 or more go to the match together but would buy one stream, then there's those who are older or less tech savvy who can't get it working or don't want to try, then there'll be absolutely loads who already have an IPTV sub and won't want to pay an extra tenner or more a week, and some who just think it'll be shit watching it on a stream and might opt for the radio instead.
 
Guinness Guzzler said:
Can't remember where I saw it quoted but I'm sure it was mentioned that one of our away games was 8,000 streams so the club would have got about £75,000 (minus VAT before GOM pulls me on it). So for away games I reckon we'll be fine, probably making a lot more than we do from fans attending away games normally. Trouble is if we also only get £80,000 for home games then obviously that's a massive hit
Click to expand...

Things wouldn't be as bad if they hadn't handled the season tickets fiasco so badly and made a lot of people who would've let them hang onto the money want it back as soon as possible.

The club have no one else to blame but themselves in that respect.
 
Wylie Coyote said:
What's the crack for anyone who hasn't followed this at all and generally thinks there is no takeover happening currently?
Click to expand...

there isn’t and was never a takeover happening, it may turn out that some shares are shifted around a bit but no one is gonna buy us now and not for 37 mil anyway
 
Guinness Guzzler said:
Might actually be less than 8,000, just seen it was in the echo (apologies for the website!)
You must be logged on to see external links
so around about 8,000 streams per game but that seems to include the opposition as well. Presumably we'd be the lions share mind.

Looking at that maybe 6-7k buying our streams. Which I think is about what I'd expect. As you say there's lots of families where 2 or more go to the match together but would buy one stream, then there's those who are older or less tech savvy who can't get it working or don't want to try, then there'll be absolutely loads who already have an IPTV sub and won't want to pay an extra tenner or more a week, and some who just think it'll be shit watching it on a stream and might opt for the radio instead.
Click to expand...

Like I say, I think estimating somewhere between £1.5-2m over the season is a good middle ground. Towards the end of the season I'd expect more casual fans to purchase one-off games. I actually fall into the bracket of people buying single game passes, may be time to get a streaming pass...
 
Guinness Guzzler said:
Can't remember where I saw it quoted but I'm sure it was mentioned that one of our away games was 8,000 streams so the club would have got about £75,000 (minus VAT before GOM pulls me on it). So for away games I reckon we'll be fine, probably making a lot more than we do from fans attending away games normally. Trouble is if we also only get £80,000 for home games then obviously that's a massive hit
Click to expand...

Depends how you look at it, the club won't be getting £10, some will go to the EFL/iFollow and there will be other expensez associated with it, but if we take your figures into consideration and assume (best case) that the full £10 is club revenue, that would equate to circa £3.68m

Then you factor in the amount of money they are saving each match day on expenses i.e. reduced energy costs, staffing etc. making use of the furlough scheme as well as reducing our investment in the first team, it surely isn't going to be as grim as we think.
 
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