• The first stage of the forum upgrades has now been completed but they remain in a degraded state and are still being worked on.
    Please read this thread for more details.
    New user registrations are currently disabled.

Mags odds on to win

  • Thread starter Thread starter Icarebecauseyoudo
  • Start date Start date
Status
Not open for further replies.
Odds are always weighed heavily in the favour of the team who needs to win more in these games. That's why Hull are much shorter than they normally would be and mags are.

Agree with op that they are a ridiculous price, I'd make them very marginal favs 6/4, 9/4 draw, 7/4 West Ham. So therefore West Ham at nearly 4/1 or a draw no bet West Ham would be value. Although I won't be having a penny on it as I don't want to lose money on top of us getting relegated by it :lol:
 

SafcForeverFTM said:
Odds are always weighed heavily in the favour of the team who needs to win more in these games. That's why Hull are much shorter than they normally would be and mags are.

Agree with op that they are a ridiculous price, I'd make them very marginal favs 6/4, 9/4 draw, 7/4 West Ham. So therefore West Ham at nearly 4/1 or a draw no bet West Ham would be value. Although I won't be having a penny on it as I don't want to lose money on top of us getting relegated by it :lol:
Click to expand...

Isn't that because they will probably put more effort in than usual and also be fired up even more by the supporters? Plus do punters not like a final day bet on the 'shock' result and therefore also drive the odds down?

Football betting/odds aren't based on the chance of probability in the same way as the statistical odds of 4-1 for picking a Diamond from a pack of 52 cards. They cam also be influenced by where the money is being placed. If a bookie offered 7-2 for each suit when picking a card from the 52, then if all the punters put the money on Diamonds the bookie would possibly change the odds in an effort to balance the bets and it's called overround. Saying that, the odds wouldn't change in Roulette if everyone bet red constantly but that betting pattern doesn't happen. The probability of it being red is not affected by the betting amounts in any way.

I'm talking shit to some degree but some on here need to read something like this link below as they seem to take the odds offered for footy results as gospel! :lol:

You must be logged on to see external links
 
SafcForeverFTM said:
Odds are always weighed heavily in the favour of the team who needs to win more in these games. That's why Hull are much shorter than they normally would be and mags are.

Agree with op that they are a ridiculous price, I'd make them very marginal favs 6/4, 9/4 draw, 7/4 West Ham. So therefore West Ham at nearly 4/1 or a draw no bet West Ham would be value. Although I won't be having a penny on it as I don't want to lose money on top of us getting relegated by it :lol:
Click to expand...

That's really not how it works...bookies want the same amount of money that's bet on Man U as there is on Hull. That way the losers pay the winners and the bookies make their money on the vig...if the money starts to get unbalanced then the bookies change the odds to get it back to zero. It's all about the bets coming in...and protecting themselves against heavy losses.
 
LineTrash said:
That's really not how it works...bookies want the same amount of money that's bet on Man U as there is on Hull. That way the losers pay the winners and the bookies make their money on the vig...if the money starts to get unbalanced then the bookies change the odds to get it back to zero. It's all about the bets coming in...and protecting themselves against heavy losses.
Click to expand...

Yep, obviously the bookies have to set the inital odds but then they change accordingly based on how much is staked on what, ensuring that they will always make profit.
 
LineTrash said:
That's really not how it works...bookies want the same amount of money that's bet on Man U as there is on Hull. That way the losers pay the winners and the bookies make their money on the vig...if the money starts to get unbalanced then the bookies change the odds to get it back to zero. It's all about the bets coming in...and protecting themselves against heavy losses.
Click to expand...
They're are not set by the bookies now though. It's the betting exchanges. If the odds on Betfair move from Evs to 4/5 on their the bookies will cut their odds even if they don't see that much money.
 
The mags will only stay up due to Hull's ineptitude. They will not beat West Ham.
 
shogun1904 said:
Yep, obviously the bookies have to set the inital odds but then they change accordingly based on how much is staked on what, ensuring that they will always make profit.
Click to expand...

There's some dumb shits over here in the states who start their own book...they use Vegas odds and get their clocks cleaned. There's a lot of people who don't understand the difference between gambling and being a bookie.
 
SafcForeverFTM said:
Odds are always weighed heavily in the favour of the team who needs to win more in these games. That's why Hull are much shorter than they normally would be and mags are.

Agree with op that they are a ridiculous price, I'd make them very marginal favs 6/4, 9/4 draw, 7/4 West Ham. So therefore West Ham at nearly 4/1 or a draw no bet West Ham would be value. Although I won't be having a penny on it as I don't want to lose money on top of us getting relegated by it :lol:
Click to expand...
5/4 about right for me. Though like you I won't be laying
 
LineTrash said:
There's some dumb shits over here in the states who start their own book...they use Vegas odds and get their clocks cleaned. There's a lot of people who don't understand the difference between gambling and being a bookie.
Click to expand...
Good point.

As a punter, I think the only way to make money is backing anything that's overpriced. Hard to find these days but you do find the odd thing. Again, it's still a matter of opinion as to whats overpriced mind you.
 
minkey said:
Good point.

As a punter, I think the only way to make money is backing anything that's overpriced. Hard to find these days but you do find the odd thing. Again, it's still a matter of opinion as to whats overpriced mind you.
Click to expand...
Don't you want to find value? If you look at the option market in the stock market your best premiums generally around the strike price which makes sense at overpriced odds but sometimes bettors hedge bets like buying Sunderland to go down wait for the Arsenal result then buy a Hull & Newcastle win combination not a perfect hedge but close enough......you still can win on a Newcastle draw......that what the betting market is telling me....
 
minkey said:
Good point.

As a punter, I think the only way to make money is backing anything that's overpriced. Hard to find these days but you do find the odd thing. Again, it's still a matter of opinion as to whats overpriced mind you.
Click to expand...
DrewC said:
Don't you want to find value? If you look at the option market in the stock market your best premiums generally around the strike price which makes sense at overpriced odds but sometimes bettors hedge bets like buying Sunderland to go down wait for the Arsenal result then buy a Hull & Newcastle win combination not a perfect hedge but close enough......you still can win on a Newcastle draw......that what the betting market is telling me....
Click to expand...

There are some very good gamblers out there who do the research and find out where the smart money is...but as my Dad used to always say "gambling money has no home"... whatever you win today, you'll probably be paying next week!
 
Reading some of the posts on here looks like the mags are brilliant all of a sudden.
They are f***ing shit and can you imagine how nervous they will be
 
We just have to get a point and save ourselves.

If a freak combination of results sends us down, the entire Summer will be spent looking at every decision, miss, draw that should have been a win, defeat that should have been a draw, giving up at four down at Southampton etc.

If we went down on goal difference..... Feel sick thinking about it. Just wish tomorrow was here and at the Emirates doing something rather than thinking the worst.....
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top