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Two and half weeks to go until the general election, with daily updates now the manifestos are out and constantly updated polls and forecasts. This is the thread for everyone who wants to follow the countdown, discussions and then election day and results night.
Everyone is predicting a hung parliament, with Tories and Labour neck and neck with neither likely to get enough seats for a majority. Unlike last time it's the SNP and not the Lib Dems who are expected to hold the balance of electoral power, as the Lib Dems are taking a pasting and the SNP look like getting an unprecedented 40 to 50 seats.
This is making the election particularly difficult to call as the coalition outcome is going to be like a love triangle in a bedroom farce. The SNP say they'll refuse to go into coalition with the Tories, and instead are making eyes at Labour. Labour say they'll refuse to go into coalition with the SNP because they think to do so will require unacceptable conditions on independence and increasingly devolved powers. Who will change their minds first? Whose circumstances on May 8th will demand that they change their stance? Will the SNP get fewer seats than predicted or the Lib Dems more?
And then there's UKIP. They are the party most talked about, even though the predictions are they won't get enough seats to affect the outcome of coalition talks. However, they have been picking up nearly 15% of the vote and are perceived to be one of the reasons no one can get a majority. Will the Tories or even Labour have to come up with something major in the next two weeks to win back voters from UKIP? Is the recent fall in UKIP's polling numbers significant? What if they and the Lib Dems DO pick up more seats than expected and a coalition is an option?
As a side point Farage himself is standing as an MP candidate in Thanet South in Kent. This is the first time he's actually been up as a candidate for a Westminster constituency since he became leader unless I'm very much mistaken, so that will be a big seat to watch out for. It's currently Tory with a 7000 majority but they won it off Labour in 2010, meaning it's a potential swing seat.
Start your engines...
Two and half weeks to go until the general election, with daily updates now the manifestos are out and constantly updated polls and forecasts. This is the thread for everyone who wants to follow the countdown, discussions and then election day and results night.
Everyone is predicting a hung parliament, with Tories and Labour neck and neck with neither likely to get enough seats for a majority. Unlike last time it's the SNP and not the Lib Dems who are expected to hold the balance of electoral power, as the Lib Dems are taking a pasting and the SNP look like getting an unprecedented 40 to 50 seats.
This is making the election particularly difficult to call as the coalition outcome is going to be like a love triangle in a bedroom farce. The SNP say they'll refuse to go into coalition with the Tories, and instead are making eyes at Labour. Labour say they'll refuse to go into coalition with the SNP because they think to do so will require unacceptable conditions on independence and increasingly devolved powers. Who will change their minds first? Whose circumstances on May 8th will demand that they change their stance? Will the SNP get fewer seats than predicted or the Lib Dems more?
And then there's UKIP. They are the party most talked about, even though the predictions are they won't get enough seats to affect the outcome of coalition talks. However, they have been picking up nearly 15% of the vote and are perceived to be one of the reasons no one can get a majority. Will the Tories or even Labour have to come up with something major in the next two weeks to win back voters from UKIP? Is the recent fall in UKIP's polling numbers significant? What if they and the Lib Dems DO pick up more seats than expected and a coalition is an option?
As a side point Farage himself is standing as an MP candidate in Thanet South in Kent. This is the first time he's actually been up as a candidate for a Westminster constituency since he became leader unless I'm very much mistaken, so that will be a big seat to watch out for. It's currently Tory with a 7000 majority but they won it off Labour in 2010, meaning it's a potential swing seat.
Start your engines...
