tynevalleyblackcat
Striker
This current obsession with death rates etc has got me thinking so I took a look at the worlds current population which is approx 7.8bn
In the year I was born (1966) it was 3.4bn, so that's a massive 229% increase in my lifetime. I also looked at the population at the time of the Spanish Flu (1918-1920). It is estimated to have killed 50m to 100m people and the world population at that time was around 1.8bn, so even using the lower 50m deaths figure it killed, one person in every 36 on the planet which is a terryfying death rate (2.78%). If the current virus kills even say a quarter that many (0.7%), then the final death toll worldwide would be 54.6m (464,000 in the UK). Hopefully it will be nowhere near that and many people avoid infection or we get a vaccine in time.
www.worldometers.info
What I find interesting is that even this massive number of deaths would not prevent the world population growing this year. The projected increase in world population is around 80m for this year and as many of the 54m deaths would have died anyway in either this year or the next decade or so due to their age, plus they are mostly not of child baring age, then the world population will still continue to rise fast and the virus will have only been a minor blip in that upward trajectory. Births will continue to accelerate at the same rate as before while deaths in the older generations will be lower slightly in the next few years due to those deaths being effectively front loaded into this year.
www.worldometers.info
So much for the four horseman theory trying to correct population growth. It would take something even more catastrophic that attacks the younger child baring generation to stop the rise in world population.
In the year I was born (1966) it was 3.4bn, so that's a massive 229% increase in my lifetime. I also looked at the population at the time of the Spanish Flu (1918-1920). It is estimated to have killed 50m to 100m people and the world population at that time was around 1.8bn, so even using the lower 50m deaths figure it killed, one person in every 36 on the planet which is a terryfying death rate (2.78%). If the current virus kills even say a quarter that many (0.7%), then the final death toll worldwide would be 54.6m (464,000 in the UK). Hopefully it will be nowhere near that and many people avoid infection or we get a vaccine in time.
World Population by Year - Worldometer
Population growth through history from 5000 BC to the current year (2021) for the entire population of the world
www.worldometers.info
What I find interesting is that even this massive number of deaths would not prevent the world population growing this year. The projected increase in world population is around 80m for this year and as many of the 54m deaths would have died anyway in either this year or the next decade or so due to their age, plus they are mostly not of child baring age, then the world population will still continue to rise fast and the virus will have only been a minor blip in that upward trajectory. Births will continue to accelerate at the same rate as before while deaths in the older generations will be lower slightly in the next few years due to those deaths being effectively front loaded into this year.
World Population Clock: 8.1 Billion People (LIVE, 2023) - Worldometer
How many people are there in the world? World population has reached 8 billion on November 15, 2022 according to the United Nations. World population live counter with data sheets, graphs, maps, and census data regarding the current, historical, and future world population figures, estimates...
www.worldometers.info
So much for the four horseman theory trying to correct population growth. It would take something even more catastrophic that attacks the younger child baring generation to stop the rise in world population.
