We are still the bookies favorites to win the league

[Iansun45]

Weren't we the favourites the last two seasons aswell, so doesn't really meant anything.

 

[Moderate Power]

Don’t be sorry to me I don’t give a shit

Neither do I, no vested interest just a long standing fascination in probability and the pricing in markets.

 

[Eric gates hair]

We were 1/2 to win last night and 10/11 v Pompey. What happened there then?

Ahem , we were f***ing shit .

 

[Qwerty]

We were 1/2 to win last night and 10/11 v Pompey. What happened there then?

And if any bookie offered 8/13 they should have cleaned up last night. The bookie that offered the best price on Pompey should have lost on that game.

 

[Scunny Dan]

You get that bookies don’t assign odds against probability of an event occurring but against what has already been laid down in bets right?

Horseshit. Of course projected probability is a huge factor. How do you think a market is formed prior to any bets being made?

 

[Moderate Power]

Horseshit. Of course projected probability is a huge factor. How do you think a market is formed prior to any bets being made?

I tried to go a little easier on Scunny Dan despite his sarcastic tone. Maybe it did deserve to be called out as horse shit.

 

[safcforever]

And will be next season

Don’t think we’ll be the favourites in the championship

 

[TravellingMackem]

Horseshit. Of course projected probability is a huge factor. How do you think a market is formed prior to any bets being made?

It’s formed based on where the bookies think the money will go. Which isn’t necessarily a function of probability. For instance man Utd and arsenal were at the start of the season much shorter than Leicester, although I’d have said Leicester were more likely to win it. Because of where the money will likely go

 

[Father Jack Hackett]

Weren't we the favourites the last two seasons aswell, so doesn't really meant anything.

Nothing whatsoever. Just means we have more fans putning on us

 

[Scunny Dan]

It’s formed based on where the bookies think the money will go. Which isn’t necessarily a function of probability. For instance man Utd and arsenal were at the start of the season much shorter than Leicester, although I’d have said Leicester were more likely to win it. Because of where the money will likely go

On balance, what a load of rubbish. If nobody had backed Liverpool, but plenty had backed West Brom, Liverpool would still be much shorter as they are a more likely winner.

 

[TravellingMackem]

On balance, what a load of rubbish. If nobody had backed Liverpool, but plenty had backed West Brom, Liverpool would still be much shorter as they are a more likely winner.

If Bill Gates went and threw every penny he could on West Brom winning the league then you wouldn’t be able to get odds on them winning as they’d diminish so much. That’s how it works. If no one at all bet on Liverpool, they’d offer really good odds on them, to spread the field and protect their potential losses against other outcomes.

 

[bomber]

ipswich are 10-1 to win the league,3-1 to get promoted,10-11 top six finish with Skybet,good value imo

 

[Moderate Power]

It’s formed based on where the bookies think the money will go. Which isn’t necessarily a function of probability. For instance man Utd and arsenal were at the start of the season much shorter than Leicester, although I’d have said Leicester were more likely to win it. Because of where the money will likely go

“I’d have said”. Clearly, however most other people betting

If Bill Gates went and threw every penny he could on West Brom winning the league then you wouldn’t be able to get odds on them winning as they’d diminish so much. That’s how it works. If no one at all bet on Liverpool, they’d offer really good odds on them, to spread the field and protect their potential losses against other outcomes.

They wouldn’t have to offer more attractive prices on other teams. They would have no potential losses on Bill’s daft bet after about 2 months of the season once it’s obvious it’s a losing bet.

Whatsmore Bill will have wasted a lifetime of invention and philanthropy on one silly bet because he had a soft spot for Brendan, Lawrie and Cyrill in the 70’s.

 

[Scunny Dan]

If Bill Gates went and threw every penny he could on West Brom winning the league then you wouldn’t be able to get odds on them winning as they’d diminish so much. That’s how it works. If no one at all bet on Liverpool, they’d offer really good odds on them, to spread the field and protect their potential losses against other outcomes.

You are plain wrong tbf. I'll guarantee you Brazil will be a shorter price than England in the next World Cup, and I'll guarantee you England will have immensely more money backed on them.

 

[TravellingMackem]

You are plain wrong tbf. I'll guarantee you Brazil will be a shorter price than England in the next World Cup, and I'll guarantee you England will have immensely more money backed on them.

Considering the bookies vary per country you’ll definitely be wrong. For the 2018 World Cup I believe we were second favourites with the English bookmakers. Doubt we were probabilisticly the second most likely team to win it.

“I’d have said”. Clearly, however most other people betting

They wouldn’t have to offer more attractive prices on other teams. They would have no potential losses on Bill’s daft bet after about 2 months of the season once it’s obvious it’s a losing bet.

Whatsmore Bill will have wasted a lifetime of invention and philanthropy on one silly bet because he had a soft spot for Brendan, Lawrie and Cyrill in the 70’s.

Clueless. And we aren’t on about 2 months into the season were on about what would happen today, if the bet was placed this morning, to the odds.

 

[Cox Green Fc]

No chance. Hull will 100% finish above is imo.