Unlicensed Vaccine come October / November???

Sorry if this has already been posted. Make of it what you will.

I was sent it a couple of weeks back and didn't take it seriously then. But Boris's second wave comments today make me wonder

 


There is no vaccine. It currently does not exist. There are candidates that are being tested, which will take time. Nothing will be distributed in October or November or anything like that soon.
It has been mentioned.

They are proposing to cut the red tape but only if the vaccine is proved safe and effective.
It's 'red tape' that helps us to know that it's safe and effective though!
 
There is no vaccine. It currently does not exist. There are candidates that are being tested, which will take time. Nothing will be distributed in October or November or anything like that soon.

It's 'red tape' that helps us to know that it's safe and effective though!

I disagree. I think there is a good chance we have a vaccine available to vulnerable groups and frontline workers by Christmas, based on the way other countries are planning to deliver one.

The Astra Zeneca/Oxford vaccine does exist, people are being given it, it just is not available for use outside of that trial.
 
I disagree. I think there is a good chance we have a vaccine available to vulnerable groups and frontline workers by Christmas, based on the way other countries are planning to deliver one.

The Astra Zeneca/Oxford vaccine does exist, people are being given it, it just is not available for use outside of that trial.
How can you call it a vaccine when you don't even know if it is effective? Right now, as with the many others in Phase 3 trials, it's a candidate vaccine, no more.

That's not a trivial distinction at all by the way.

Also, define good in percentage terms
 
I disagree. I think there is a good chance we have a vaccine available to vulnerable groups and frontline workers by Christmas, based on the way other countries are planning to deliver one.

The Astra Zeneca/Oxford vaccine does exist, people are being given it, it just is not available for use outside of that trial.

It's showing strong anti-body and strong t-cell production too. Assuming the double blind reveals no issues, then once they do roll out I think they have to monitor outcomes again before scaling up delivery. Sarah Gilbert talks confidently about getting in front of the regulators before the year is out.

China alone has 8 different vaccines currently performing well in phase 3 trials.

I'd wager there will be a few viable vaccine candidates available for distribution before winter is over.
 
Excuse my ignorance, but is phase 3 the final trial? (No jokes about Cup Final tickets please :lol: )
Yes. There are Phase 4 trials but they are ran as long-term safety trials after approval.

The success rate at Phase 3 (measured in likelihood of subsequent approval by regulators) is about 50%, so flip a coin on this one
 
How can you call it a vaccine when you don't even know if it is effective? Right now, as with the many others in Phase 3 trials, it's a candidate vaccine, no more.

That's not a trivial distinction at all by the way.

Also, define good in percentage terms

60% or more

I bet you a bag of avocados the govt are delivering this to some people in the UK during 2020
 
60% or more

I bet you a bag of avocados the govt are delivering this to some people in the UK during 2020
I think it's unlikely so I'll happily take that bet. I think the pressure to drive candidates through means the usual 50% chance is more like 30%, and that's at all let alone delivery this year. We'll see

I actually found out today that the company I work for should have people in the room when the Oxford Phase 3 trial results are first presented to clinicians for comment. Maybe I'll be there, which would be slightly nerve wracking.
 
I’d give it to anyone eligible for a flu vaccine and anyone working in a frontline healthcare role.
I understand that’s what is going to happen but assuming they start before Christmas it’ll be well into next year before they're in a position to make it available to everyone and that’s assuming u only need one shot
 
I think it's unlikely so I'll happily take that bet. I think the pressure to drive candidates through means the usual 50% chance is more like 30%, and that's at all let alone delivery this year. We'll see

I actually found out today that the company I work for should have people in the room when the Oxford Phase 3 trial results are first presented to clinicians for comment. Maybe I'll be there, which would be slightly nerve wracking.
Why would you be there :lol: ffs
 

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