D
Deleted member 6694
Guest
It just means that if nobody else dies from today which is the actual date of death, they'll still be reporting deaths for days, weeks to come
wisemensaysteve
Winger
That's my thought too, a lot of people even in the NHS work Monday-Friday and a good few will finish early on Friday. Tuesday's figure will give us a better idea of where we are and I think that figure will be more than A thousand
I hope I am wong
As others have said the weekend numbers report low, so not out of the woods yet unfortunately.
It's a similar story for the whole of the North East unfortunately, we've gone from around 700 confirmed cases 5 days ago to approximately 1,830 now. In context that is from a population of circa 2.75M. Obviously the number of actual cases is anybodies guess, over 20,000 probably.
Apologies if you think I was being a bit twattish in the reply but the "do you know my occupation?" line set me off laughing and I couldn't refuse replying
Can you show me an example of a log scale that shows the trend of daily deaths that will show what the newer figure (along with previous) that isn't simply a continuation of the line? Basically what do you suggest that will show a recent deaths trend where you can easily see changes and I may just hoy them up on here instead.
Shush child, go back to playing with your Lego and let the grown up discuss complicated things
My personal preference is a log scale of cumulative cases, failing that a linear scale of cumulative cases, either way you're looking for the inflection point when growth starts to slow down, aren't you? I assume that's what you were demonstrating in the figures you posted earlier, but the charts should show more information ideally.
A three-day rolling average of the growth factor - on a linear scale - would be interesting but that itself is all over the place and needs more data points until it can be shown without a three-day average, hence the peaks and troughs on your chart, it's hard to infer anything meaningful from it when the data is all over the place like that.
Either way crack on and have fun marra.
Brian Griffin
Striker
Idiots thinking that death rate is going down so that the lockdown will be eased next weekI’d say we’re in for at least another 3 weeks of lockdown
We’ll be like this til September easily.
Disgusting the way we collate figures mind.
T
The Exile
Guest
Yep. Amazing how the scale of this is simply not registering with the management class. First contingency plan I wrote I was told to do til the end of April. So I said yes Boss, then wrote May, June and July as well.
Our lot are attracting complaints from the locals around the bases that we're not taking it seriously enough.
DoctorMick
Striker
D
Deleted member 6694
Guest
That's why I asked for an example yet you haven't given one
I'll ask you again, hoy up a graph or whatever that will make most on here see that the death increase isn't climbing as it once was as I had suggested I would use it. I'm not asking for much given the data you'll have. Personally I focus on more recent deaths as this is the deaths thread and most people who die now won't have been infected way back in February. Also using the older numbers means a lot of variations so unless you use the averages and possibly a log scale to smooth it. Doing it that way you may eventually see the curve decline and level out (S curve or summit ain't it?) but from a last few days trend you see very little change. Aye I could make it better and I'm changing things now and then so I can make it easier for people to see.Personally as it's not my job, cases aren't something I'll focus on now due to ramped up testing. There will be far more positives as tests go up given they're testing people with milder symptoms who will recover rather (NHS staff) than before when it was selective testing. Hospital admissions would be ideal but so far I've only seen the ones in daily brief so can't see actual numbers, just a steady climb unless you've got that data and would like to share.
I've done the 3 day rolling average before in graphs to smooth curves and also use to it match our data to Italy's deaths in numbers as I posted here (LINK).
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I will crack on and have fun, it's you that needs to chill out a bit as coming out with the "my job shite again" earlier after I was clearly taking the piss with the comment I made was amusing as fuck
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D
Deleted member 6694
Guest
I'm not politically minded but you can spot them easily on here and I think you are one aren't you?
Still waiting for your log scale or linear curve by the way as I genuinely want to see what you mean or is it too much to ask from the all and mighty knowledgable being?
Banks
Striker
Or maybe they do and this all just a calming tactic.
That's why I asked for an example yet you haven't given one
Personally as it's not my job, cases aren't something I'll focus on now due to ramped up testing. There will be far more positives as tests go up given they're testing people with milder symptoms who will recover rather (NHS staff) than before when it was selective testing. Hospital admissions would be ideal but so far I've only seen the ones in daily brief so can't see actual numbers, just a steady climb unless you've got that data and would like to share.
I've done the 3 day rolling average before in graphs to smooth curves and also use to it match our data to Italy's deaths in numbers as I posted here (LINK).
I will crack on and have fun, it's you that needs to chill out a bit as coming out with the "my job shite again" earlier after I was clearly taking the piss with the comment I made was amusing as fuck
This is an example of what I meant. By plotting the cumulative number of deaths on a log scale, you can see when the growth starts to slow down. You may call that an inflection point if you were presenting this on a linear scale.
I believe this better demonstrates the growth in the number of deaths than presenting a day-by-day percentage growth.
This chart displays the number of deaths on a log scale, with lines to demonstrate what doubling every two, three and four days looks like. Growth is slowing down - that can be more easily seen this way, IMO.
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dangermows
Striker
Numbers are fleeing up.
D
Deleted member 6694
Guest
Thanks for that but that's exactly what I was getting at and I was going to post it myself but wanted to see if I was right in what you were talking about. How can you see the trend over the last few days in a simple way apart from that tiny little drop off right at the end? You can obviously interpret that graph as can I, however many won't be able to and that's why I said it ends up looking like a straight line when you focus on a shorter time period as shown in the image below.
That's why I just hoyed up the graph I made for myself as it's showing a trend and aye I may possibly change how I show the decline. I'm not trying to be cocky or owt mate, just that I can't see how this bit of the graph below can be helpful to those on here who don't look at them normally but still focus on the last weeks daily deaths etc which is what I hoyed up today to show the decline.
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Plus those kinds of graphs are everywhere as the Financial Times hoys them up and they're helpful in a way. They posted this one but I debated the fact the used the 3 deaths in 1 day as a starting point as the 2nd one showed the UK differently. My point was that if I took it from 10 deaths on a day our line shifted right instead and I posted about it HERE that log scales could show different things depending on your starting point (is it called index?) as it's got a 3rd log scale that Sky showed from 50 deaths (which is what is shown in the daily gov briefs IIRC).
I would be interested in what you think of those 3 different log scales given your experience in this and whether you think that people who don't have a clue may see it differently. That was my point in that other thread as most people will look at this graph and think one is far worse than the other, hence why that thread was started and I posted what I did. You (and I) will also be looking at the numerical data and also see the days it started etc and this helps in how you interpret the graphs, again many don't so may not see it the same way.
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I don't think there's much value in graphically displaying just a few days. Isolating any parts of an overall trend will not display the overall pattern. As you could see from graphing the percentage change over just a few days, the line was up and down and all over the place.
As a personal preference I do not like taking an arbitrary number of deaths and setting the chart from there. I find that fishy.
Tell me if you think otherwise but I'm of the belief that we are past the inflection point of the period of exponential growth and growth in the number of deaths is slowing.
