UK Daily figures update for April 5th

  • Thread starter Deleted member 6694
  • Start date
Scotty 1978 said:
Idiots thinking that death rate is going down so that the lockdown will be eased next week 😂 I’d say we’re in for at least another 3 weeks of lockdown
Click to expand...

At the very least. Without much ramped up testing capacity and in he absence of vaccine, I could only see that resulting in another round of high infection and subsequent deaths
 


Frijj said:
The dashboard hadn't updated when the OP posted this thread, so there's a spreadsheet posted online by the DH that is updated each day. I'm just asking for the address to that.
Click to expand...
Aye dashboard is slow as are the spreadsheets so I just parse the page on GOV website. It's simple to set up as you may well know and then it's done and auto populates when it's updated.

What I'm saying is that the best way to display the cases is the cumulative numbers on a log scale. I'm not confused - that's the best way to display the information.

I do not understand what you are trying to display using the metrics of "death%" and "case%".
Click to expand...
I'm not displaying the cumulative cases or deaths etc log scales as many places have that, plus this is only a few days data to see the more recent trend and a log scale would show a straightish line :lol:

I may well stop looking at the cases as it's just going to go up and up now they're testing more per day so you'd expect a rise though the % of case per tests may be something to track. I'm sure you've posted about the daily % increase elsewhere when commenting and that's what made me look as I find easier to look at personally. I've got a few various graphs that update automatically, some logarithmic but I can't be arsed to post them :lol:
 
Last edited by a moderator:
box2box said:
New cases is the first that needs to drop, assuming sufficient testing in the right areas is happening

the government could start to release numbers around people who are self isolating 7/14 days if they have used the online form ?
Click to expand...
It won't drop now as they're testing more people and also testing non severe symptom people such as NHS staff. Some will test positive but they're aren't the ones who were being tested before who had bad symptoms that required testing at hospital.

It's the daily hospital admissions that need to start to drop as we could test 100,000 tomorrow and end up with 50,000 new cases (if it's 50% ratio like today) but there would still only be the same amount admitted due to severe symptoms.
Epping said:
You two need to get a room.. if it wasn't for social distancing .. 😉
Click to expand...
He's trying to be the dominant one and telling what I should do and asking me where I get my info from before him, the cheek of it ;):lol: All this after he ignored my posts recently and didn't reply over a few days asking him about the ICU thread and if he had any other demographic data he'd seen anywhere? In the end I actually had to ak him if I was on ignore or if he was ignoring me :lol::lol: That's why I was teasing him earlier in thread but still told him though he still hasn't answered me.

https://www.readytogo.net/smb/threads/how-many-people-have-got-it.1512438/page-2#post-31478999
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Very concerning that today was by far the biggest number of new infections given the deaths lag behind infections. I can’t see anything other than 500-1000 deaths daily for the next ~3 weeks. Hopefully it starts to fall substantially thereafter.
 
Italian Outcast said:
Sadly I think the UK is now at the over 500 deaths a day stage - i don't think you can over interpret daily differences too much at this point in time
In Scotland there were only 2 cases reported today - and 40+ the previous day
Often better to look at longer 3, 5, and 7 day period trends to get a broader picture
Click to expand...
The 40 plus were reclassified from a number of previous days as they hadn’t been confirmed by the lab that processes the tests to the families of those that died. Once they were done, those figures hit in one day.
 
MackemX said:
It won't drop now as they're testing more people and also testing non severe symptom people such as NHS staff. Some will test positive but they're aren't the ones who were being tested before who had bad symptoms that required testing at hospital.

It's the daily hospital admissions that need to start to drop as we could test 100,000 tomorrow and end up with 50,000 new cases (if it's 50% ratio like today) but there would still only be the same amount admitted due to severe symptoms.
He's trying to be the dominant one and telling what I should do and asking me where I get my info from before him, the cheek of it ;):lol:
Click to expand...

I don't need to display my dominance over anyone. Healthcare analytics is my day job, being paid to track and model the impact of COVID-19 in the region I work is my day job. I think most people on the coronavirus sub-forum are aware of that.

I'm interested in the link to the actual file for the number of cases because it's a good way of saving time downloading a file each day.

I don't have the inclination to start a daily thread and fill it with charts. I'm simply trying to a) find out the actual link to the xlsx file that you automatically download each day, since that's a good idea and b) trying to bring some clarity to the statistics that you're presenting because the message you're trying to give is being lost in the noise of you presenting less valuable metrics like in the graph you posted earlier.
 
haway said:
Very concerning that today was by far the biggest number of new infections given the deaths lag behind infections. I can’t see anything other than 500-1000 deaths daily for the next ~3 weeks. Hopefully it starts to fall substantially thereafter.
Click to expand...
Some of this is down to additional tests and don't read into it too much as it's daily hospital admission that matter more, see my post just above for an example.
 
T S Garp said:
Also from the Guardian rolling updates

the NHS England figures – which make up the bulk of UK deaths – reflect the day on which the death was reported, not the actual date of death, which is usually days, sometimes weeks, before it appears in the figures

I've no idea how that affects the graphs and trends, some of you number crunchers may be able to shed some light
Click to expand...


AND THIS

MackemBob said:
The 40 plus were reclassified from a number of previous days as they hadn’t been confirmed by the lab that processes the tests to the families of those that died. Once they were done, those figures hit in one day.
Click to expand...

This is a concern I have had for some time - the lack of accurate day by day numbers that reflect the reality of deaths (in particular) in the UK
Though I'm uncertain- I believe Italy had a handle on this early on

Understanding the real trends is essential

I find it astonishing that the UK cannot recalibrate and the cannot accurately report 24/7 - it can't be considered a civil service 9-5 job with weekends and Bank holidays off
In general the govt websites tracking and reporting are very poor when compared to other European countries and to the US
 
Frijj said:
I don't need to display my dominance over anyone. Healthcare analytics is my day job, being paid to track and model the impact of COVID-19 in the region I work is my day job. I think most people on the coronavirus sub-forum are aware of that.

I'm interested in the link to the actual file for the number of cases because it's a good way of saving time downloading a file each day.

I don't have the inclination to start a daily thread and fill it with charts. I'm simply trying to a) find out the actual link to the xlsx file that you automatically download each day, since that's a good idea and b) trying to bring some clarity to the statistics that you're presenting because the message you're trying to give is being lost in the noise of you presenting less valuable metrics like in the graph you posted earlier.
Click to expand...
Haha, I was jesting man and you're bringing out the "do you know my occupation?" line out again? :lol: If it's your job then how has little old me with no qualifications in your field or masters degree knocked up a basic external data request in excel to get the data? ;)

I can't believe I'm posting all this but I may as well say it again and show why I post what I do. As I said the metrics you're talking about are there for everyone to see anyway, however they are over longer periods so why post them again to add just a single day? There will be very little variation unless it's a huge increase/drop so what exactly would you gain from that? :confused: Here's what I mean, yesterday's and today's logarithmic since March 1st for cases, it's similar for deaths. It's an even flatter line if you use a smaller time scale of 10 days. There may be a way to do it but I can't be arsed to set up the scale trying to show another line that I can see anyway in simple form that shouldn't be that hard to interpret for some people.

Can you show me the increase in the last few days cases like my graph does?


Logon or register to see this image


Logon or register to see this image


With that simple graph I visually see the last 10 days trends quite easily. I can also quickly change the % easily based on the trend and get an idea of future deaths/cases/totals but I just blanked them out prior as it still has deaths going up and peaking in 900's next weekend. I'm nee expert and people can think what they want and I should have explained what the graph meant also in the original post.


 
Last edited by a moderator:
MackemX said:
Haha, I was jesting man and you're bringing out the "do you know my occupation" line out again? :lol: If it's your job then how has little old me with no qualifications in your field or masters degree knocked up a basic external data request in excel to get the data? ;)

I can't believe I'm doing this but I may as well say it again and show why I post what I do. As I said the metrics you're talking about are there for everyone to see anyway, however they are over longer periods so why post them again to add just a single day? There will be very little variation unless it's a huge increase/drop so what exactly would you gain from that? :confused: Here's what I mean, yesterday's and today's logarithmic since March 1st for cases, it's similar for deaths. It's an even flatter line if you use a smaller time scale of 10 days. There may be a way to do it but I can't be arsed to set up the scale trying to show another line that I can see anyway in simple form that shouldn't be that hard to interpret for some people.

Can you show me the increase in the last few days cases like my graph does?


Logon or register to see this image


Logon or register to see this image


With that simple graph I visually see the last 10 days trends quite easily. I can also quickly change the % easily based on the trend and get an idea of future deaths/cases/totals but I just blanked them out prior as it still has deaths going up and peaking in 900's next weekend. I'm nee expert and people can think what they want but


Click to expand...

My job isn't to obtain data, it is to work with the data provided. So your ability to automatically pull the data once it is uploaded is a useful skill, just not one that I'd need for work. It's a really useful thing to have for this particular circumstance and I even said that it was a good idea.

I don't have a problem with you, I don't have anything against you, I'm not ignoring you - I'm just trying to get to the bottom of your methodology. You may be and probably are a very competent data person, but perhaps with limited experience of working with health-related data.
Baloo said:
Does anyone else not have a f***ing clue what @Frijj and @MackemX are talking about?
Click to expand...

I think he isn't presenting the most useful data, he thinks otherwise. I think there's more value to seeing the wider trend using the cumulative number of deaths on a log scale, he appears to believe otherwise.
 
Last edited:
Frijj said:
My job isn't to obtain data, it is to work with the data provided. So your ability to automatically pull the data once it is uploaded is a useful skill, just not one that I'd need for work. It's a really useful thing to have for this particular circumstance and I even said that it was a good idea.

I don't have a problem with you, I don't have anything against you, I'm not ignoring you - I'm just trying to get to the bottom of your methodology. You may be and probably are a very competent data person, but perhaps with limited experience of working with health-related data.


I think he isn't presenting the most useful data, he thinks otherwise. I think there's more value to seeing the wider trend using the cumulative number of deaths on a log scale, he appears to believe otherwise.
Click to expand...
Apologies if you think I was being a bit twattish in the reply but the "do you know my occupation?" line set me off laughing and I couldn't refuse replying :lol:

Can you show me an example of a log scale that shows the trend of daily deaths that will show what the newer figure (along with previous) that isn't simply a continuation of the line? Basically what do you suggest that will show a recent deaths trend where you can easily see changes and I may just hoy them up on here instead.

Baloo said:
Does anyone else not have a f***ing clue what @Frijj and @MackemX are talking about?
Click to expand...
Shush child, go back to playing with your Lego and let the grown up discuss complicated things ;)
 
Can we not all just accept that the situation is bad! Beyond that all I want to know Is wether it is getting worse or improving. Just a couple of sentences is all that needed
 

Back
Top