The Summer rebuild.


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I mean, I'm probably more likely to believe the best performing teams in football at all levels over posters on a message board. There's so much evidence that, in the modern game, this is what you do if you want to succeed. We see that across countries, divisions, you name it. If we design our club to appease the average fan's sense of what is important in the short term we'll be a disaster. That's because mostly modern football is about intelligence rather than emotion and we're all fans so the latter trumps the former. The disconnect in that short term view between what fans want and what players and clubs want is a real problem. Witness the reaction on here to Johnson's turn of phrase. The only thing that can bridge that gap is results. That is ultimately what football fans care about. Get those going and discomfort about the methods of modern football clubs melt away.
 
There might be however Im not 100% up on the rules after last season's fiasco. The rule with the cap meant they had a clear advantage, now I'm not sure.

Either way, I would be very surprised if we didn't have the highest wage budget in the league again.

Which in really simple terms means, if Speakman, Harvey and co get it right, we win the league.
I don't think there is on the old SCMP rules - although I could well be wrong. The two things that drove our situation were firstly that we still had PL parachute payments hanging about and secondly the much more draconian salary cap rules came in. I don't think (though I'm not sure) we got any special dispensation in either the first or second season.
 
Is that likely to change when he's given another set of players to coach who he also didn't pick. Johnson can only be evaluated on his coaching ability as he won't be identifying players directly. He can suggest positions and qualities but ultimately someone else finds that player for him.


You think our budget will be higher than Sheff Wed's?

Wednesday are a basket case. There are multiple reports that players are being paid late on a regular basis.
I don't think there is on the old SCMP rules - although I could well be wrong. The two things that drove our situation were firstly that we still had PL parachute payments hanging about and secondly the much more draconian salary cap rules came in. I don't think (though I'm not sure) we got any special dispensation in either the first or second season.

Relegated clubs get an extra 10% I think.
 
Some of our fans seem to think we've stumbled on the holy grail with it yet clubs like Southampton have been using it for over 10 years.
It is a bit of 'thing' with some. Am no expert, but I assume most clubs use off the shelf platforms. How the data is interpreted and what criteria are used being the important bit. I was reading something about a club yesterday. Can't remember who it was, but how they use it etc. Identify players from data against criteria they've agreed upon, then do the "eye test" by watching them in 90 minute games. Hardly some mysterious art
 
Those who think the club are changing how they do things and those that think LJ deserves more time seem to be basing their suppositions on starting next season with a high press, younger and more athletic team with pace and energy. I don't think any fan would disagree with this aim but just how realistic is it?

From the snippets we've been fed there's a suggestion that the wage budget will be lower. There was also the statement by Johnson that there are players the club want to retain but can't afford to. If most clubs are using the data driven approach why would we get better results than them looking at the same data. In my opinion next season will see L1 stronger than any of our seasons down here. I'd expect Sheff Wed to mount a strong promotion push, Rotherham seem to be too good for L1 but not quite good enough for the Championship. Throw in Pompey, Ipswich, Charlton and the loser of the play off final and the top two places may take some achieving.

Question for those not as sceptical as I am but what makes you convinced that we can put a league winning team together from scratch with a reduced wage budget.
I’d personally say we’ll be looking to near enough half the wage bill. The net benefit of replacing McGeady, Wyke, Grigg and Leadbitter alone will be probably in the region of 1.5 mill a year.
 
It is a bit of 'thing' with some. Am no expert, but I assume most clubs use off the shelf platforms. How the data is interpreted and what criteria are used being the important bit. I was reading something about a club yesterday. Can't remember who it was, but how they use it etc. Identify players from data against criteria they've agreed upon, then do the "eye test" by watching them in 90 minute games. Hardly some mysterious art

That's exactly how Speakman described the approach in his last podcast.
 
Up and coming or those with a point to prove, either playing in this league or the league below and doing really well, or someone thats been at PL academy and been released with a point to prove. We've got to get away from players approaching 30 getting binned off by Champo clubs, its not worked well.
 
You think our budget will be higher than Sheff Wed's?
Im far from up to date on their financial standing or whose contract is up in the summer but I thought they had a lot of financial issues to the extent they aren't paying their players?

I know they're a basket case with contracts so if some of their high earners stay on then perhaps we won't be highest. If they are able to get rid of them, I can't see them replacing like for like.

Hull for example when coming down kept the majority of their players from the championship, added very well and still had less wage budget.
 
I’d personally say we’ll be looking to near enough half the wage bill. The net benefit of replacing McGeady, Wyke, Grigg and Leadbitter alone will be probably in the region of 1.5 mill a year.

Grigg is under contract though and we've already seen in this league that they don't leave willingly unless they get a pay off. Is that included in your salary projection?
 
It is a bit of 'thing' with some. Am no expert, but I assume most clubs use off the shelf platforms. How the data is interpreted and what criteria are used being the important bit. I was reading something about a club yesterday. Can't remember who it was, but how they use it etc. Identify players from data against criteria they've agreed upon, then do the "eye test" by watching them in 90 minute games. Hardly some mysterious art
True. But SAFC didn't use it at all during the Donald era. It was all contacts, buffets and recruitment days. And as a result we overpaid for an under-quality squad. Even then we got close to a promotion run in all three seasons. Doing the 'right' things is more likely to produce more of the right outcomes. That's basically all that is being said here. And a SAFC in League One that is getting more right than wrong on the recruitment front is a real contender for automatic promotion.
 
I said before the start of this season that we’d finish in the playoffs if we were lucky but no higher.

Next season unless we get the recruitment absolutely bang on we’ll struggle to repeat this seasons achievement.

Rotherham, Sheff Wednesday, Wycombe, Oxford, Charlton, Portsmouth (Lincoln or Blackpool), Bolton maybe all will have realistic playofff/promotion aspirations and there’s usually at least one club that surprises everyone and over achieves (Lincoln being this season’s example).

It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if some of our out of contract players end up looking far better in another L1 side next season and we struggle to implement Johnson’s 422222222222222 formation all over again.
 
It is a bit of 'thing' with some. Am no expert, but I assume most clubs use off the shelf platforms. How the data is interpreted and what criteria are used being the important bit. I was reading something about a club yesterday. Can't remember who it was, but how they use it etc. Identify players from data against criteria they've agreed upon, then do the "eye test" by watching them in 90 minute games. Hardly some mysterious art

Earlier in the season I heard Peterborough's chairman talking about what they do, sounds very similar to this. They have one data person (I think) who works with thw chairman and uses stats to identify players, many from the lower leagues. They have had a seemingly never ending conveyor belt of successful signings.
 
Grigg is under contract though and we've already seen in this league that they don't leave willingly unless they get a pay off. Is that included in your salary projection?
He’s done well enough at MK Dons that I think he’ll go. I don’t think we’ll end up giving him a pay off either. You could also argue that even if we do, it’s mitigated by the pay offs to Catts and Oviedo ending.
 
I’d personally say we’ll be looking to near enough half the wage bill. The net benefit of replacing McGeady, Wyke, Grigg and Leadbitter alone will be probably in the region of 1.5 mill a year.
ifall of those leftit would be over 2 million i would have thought..but whose going buy wyke?
 
Im far from up to date on their financial standing or whose contract is up in the summer but I thought they had a lot of financial issues to the extent they aren't paying their players?

I know they're a basket case with contracts so if some of their high earners stay on then perhaps we won't be highest. If they are able to get rid of them, I can't see them replacing like for like.

Hull for example when coming down kept the majority of their players from the championship, added very well and still had less wage budget.

Would Hull have fallen foul of the 60% salaries to turnover though if they hadn't been exempted like we were first season down here. Its a sizeable advantage which we squandered, along with two parachute payments which the owner trousered.
He didn't think Sanderson was good enough either until he was forced to play him when under performing players were injured......No injuries and we would never have seen how good Sanderson was

Cracking young player imo and the EXACT type we should be going for.......potential to play in the top league I reckon.
 
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ifall of those leftit would be over 2 million i would have thought..but whose going buy wyke?
He’s on freedom of contract and I don’t personally feel we’ll offer him a new one. I did rough sums based on the net wage benefit of replacing their approx wages (done 12k Grigg and McGeady, 6k Wyke and Leadbitter, all a week) with players earning about 2.5-3k a week coming in.
 
Would Hull have fallen foul of the 60% salaries to turnover though if they hadn't been exempted like we were first season down here. Its a sizeable advantage which we squandered, along with two parachute payments which the owner trousered.


Cracking young player imo and the EXACT type we should be going for.......potential to play in the top league I reckon.
hull cut theirwage bill when they came down here.
He’s on freedom of contract and I don’t personally feel we’ll offer him a new one. I did rough sums based on the net wage benefit of replacing their approx wages (done 12k Grigg and McGeady, 6k Wyke and Leadbitter, all a week) with players earning about 2.5-3k a week coming in.
sorry your completely roght..i meant to say, whose going to buy grigg
 
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