Texas numbers continue to fall after reopening



squavers said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1394162142593617920

From that twitter thread. If that graph is correct (I haven't checked but have seem similar graphs showing similar results previously) then it's hard to argue that masks make much of a difference.
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That makes the assumption that the underlying factors influencing transmission are the same though, and that transmission is equally patterned everywhere.

For example, a very rural area with no masks is unlikely to see significant transmission, whereas a city centre with no masks would.

The CDC also stated in December:

“Mask mandates were associated with statistically significant decreases in county-level daily COVID-19 case and death growth rates within 20 days of implementation”

www.cdc.gov

Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing ...

This report describes changes in COVID-19 case and death growth ...
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

We will never know exactly what the impact of masks was, but the evidence does not suggest they do not work, and they do not cause any harm.

People resistant to masks are, as they have demonstrated on here, small, bitter, selfish people who care only about themselves. They are anti-science, ideologically driven and for the most part, just not that bright.
 
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McMackem said:
Interesting tweet, all politicians lie, but some are clearly just more 'Trump-level' than others.

The latest available figures from Texas are 862 cases, the fifth worst in America, and three deaths. Overall if Texas were a country it would be the 19th worst hit in the world and at one time would have been 5th. It's figures for the level of restrictions it has had are incredibly good, but there are so many factors involved such as closing the borders properly, rurality, etc etc that it can hardly be held up as evidence we needn't have bothered.

As for it's evidence 'lockdowns don't work' - absolute cackbabble.
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We have had three lockdowns now. Two full on and one half arsed. The two full on lockdowns showed an almost immediate rapid drop in cases. The half arsed showed an immediate reduction but not to the extent of others.

Three dates, three sudden drops in cases, all perfectly aligned. If lockdowns don’t work, what caused those figures to drop?
 
Frijj said:
Did you find that evidence comparing states that suggested lockdowns weren’t that effective?

Texas is not sufficient evidence that lockdowns “may not be” the best option.

People who present alternatives to lockdown almost never present a counterfactual scenario.

Since we know that social contact spreads the virus, lockdowns limit social contact, and NHS capacity was significantly stretched by the number of cases despite restrictions...how do you think we’d have coped without a lockdown?
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Lock downs work

Are they the best option? I don't think so
 
Rustie Trombone said:
Lock downs work

Are they the best option? I don't think so
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But any alternative would have increased levels of social contact above what they were during lockdown, no? And with that, more cases. More cases inevitably mean more people in hospital, and more deaths.

I am struggling to see what is a better option than lockdown given this.
 
Early on, IMO, masks were a great way of focussing minds, of making people conscious of an invisible enemy, propaganda if you want, but effective. They do restrict transmission of course, but most are not great, but as part of the 'actions taken' to me it made a lot of sense. I think we've passed the need for that now, but unfortunately telling everyone to ditch masks would be telling the naive, selfish and ignorant that the 'day of total normality' had been reached. As they are such a minor imposition on life we should wait until that day actually has been reached.

Lockdowns have a terrible economic price, and once we reach the endgame of the vaccination process, any further restrictions will surely never need to include anything that you could describe as a 'lockdown' again even though ours have been some of the least policed, half-hearted lockdowns of any developed nation. If people wore masks, actually socially distanced and washed their hands now and then, this would quickly be over now. Consistent virtually zero hospitalisations equals 'it no longer matters'.
Frijj said:
But any alternative would have increased levels of social contact above what they were during lockdown, no? And with that, more cases. More cases inevitably mean more people in hospital, and more deaths.

I am struggling to see what is a better option than lockdown given this.
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Couldn't agree more, though I'm hoping in the UK this is soon to become a historical debate not 'where we are now'.
 
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if you ignore all the rhetoric...almost impossible i know..this is good news. Regardless of what has happened up u til now it shows that a large centre of population can open up completely and there isnt a big spike in hospitalizations after a month or so.

Surely we don't want folk in Texas to start dropping likes stones so we can therefore be proven right?
 
Jap Stammer said:
Then let's all wear full suits of armour!

I mean, those pesky meteorites are everywhere, aren't they?
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Anne Hodges is famous for being the only person on record to be hit by a meteor. It ruined her life, sadly.
Her landlord tried to claim the meteor as his as it had gone through the roof of his house before hitting her. She suffered stress and ill health and eventually died in a convalescent home aged just 52.
A neighbour of hers found another piece of the meteor and sold it. He got enough cash to buy a house and a new car. There's a moral in that story. Don't get hit by a meteorite. Just find one.
 
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zinedine said:
Anne Hodges is famous for being the only person on record to be hit by a meteor. It ruined her life, sadly.
Her landlord tried to claim the meteor as his as it had gone through the roof of his house before hitting her. She suffered stress and ill health and eventually died in a convalescent home aged just 52.
A neighbour of hers found another piece of the meteor and sold it. He got enough cash to buy a house and a new car. There's a moral in that story. Don't get hit by a meteorite. Just find one.
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I never knew that - as my Dad would have said, "You learn something every day".

Cheers.
 
jcrossan said:
if you ignore all the rhetoric...almost impossible i know..this is good news. Regardless of what has happened up u til now it shows that a large centre of population can open up completely and there isnt a big spike in hospitalizations after a month or so.

Surely we don't want folk in Texas to start dropping likes stones so we can therefore be proven right?
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Some will, but not to win an argument...just to feel safe.
 
Hulkster said:
Texas (population 29 million) has now been fully open with no restrictions whatever for three months.

The government are lying to us on am unprecedented scale.
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They are quite some way behind us with the delta variant, hopefully it doesn't become a problem. Will be interesting to see how it pans out.
 
Hulkster said:
Texas (population 29 million) has now been fully open with no restrictions whatever for three months.

The government are lying to us on am unprecedented scale.
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No they’re not. Time and time and time again you fail to appreciate that we don’t live in Texas.

You may think you are making a valid comparison but you aren’t.

The 7-day average for COVID deaths in Texas is 28, which adjusted for population is 6.5 times higher than our rate.

If we were experiencing deaths at the rate Texas is, we’d be recording 65-70 deaths a day, compared to the 10 we are recording at the moment.
 
Frijj said:
If we were experiencing deaths at the rate Texas is, we’d be recording 65-70 deaths a day, compared to the 10 we are recording at the moment
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Genuine question here. Is 80 deaths per day not going to be the expected death rate going forward under no restrictions according to Sage.
 

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