Texas numbers continue to fall after reopening



An example of one state apparently bucking the trend for the policies it has in place, does not itself make for an argument against restrictions.

It also doesn't necessarily present a fair comparator for other countries, so anyone wanting to look at Texas and say that they're containing it without masks, so why can't we, is starting from a fundamentally flawed position.

The idea that Texas does or does not have a mask mandate is further complicated by the layers and layers of bureaucracy in the United States. Some parts of Texas have kept the mask mandate, and some state judges have ruled they can keep it, despite the governor's executive order.

Furthermore, the geographical and climate differences across the US mean that you can quite easily sit outside in Texas in March. It's 27c in El Paso tomorrow, 24c in Fort Worth and 25c in San Antonio. In Detroit it's 12c tomorrow and in Portland, Maine it's 7c.

However, let's get into it...just how well is Texas performing when you compare it to states with similar climates and similar levels of vaccine rollouts?

Let's compare Texas to 5 states at broadly similar latitudes, with and without statewide mask mandates, with similar levels of vaccination uptake. If restrictions aren't needed, then California, Arkansas and Louisiana, where masks are mandated, will have similar or higher case rates, than Texas, Florida and Georgia, where masks aren't mandated.

California - Masks mandated, 29% first dose

Arkansas - Masks mandated, 25% first dose

Louisiana - Masks mandated, 25% first dose

Florida - Masks not mandated, 26% first dose

Georgia - Masks not mandated, 22% first dose

Texas - Masks not mandated, 24% first dose

Now as this chart from the Financial Times shows us, we can clearly see that whilst the incidence rate of COVID-19 cases has stabilised in these states...those three states without mask mandates, are stubbornly higher. Given Texas' large population, the impact of that larger incidence rate is magnified.

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Looking specifically at the last 7 days from March 27, we can see that those three states with mask mandates are performing significantly better than those three without.

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Finally, we can see here that there is some rather unfortunate evidence that cases may be beginning to rise again in Texas. Which is not good news for anyone. Suspicious timing too, 14 days after the mask mandate was abandoned. Given the lag between people mixing again, the virus taking time to cause symptoms and then people getting tested, that looks like it could be attributable to the loss of the mask mandate.

 
Firstly, if you believe any of the numbers coming out of Texas and Florida (where they sent police to invade the home of an employee who blew the whistle on corrupt reporting) or Louisiana (where they are simply inept) I have a recent photo of a full NUFC trophy cabinet to sell you.

California numbers MAY be a little more truthful but even here it is expedient for the about to be recalled Governor to not encourage testing and allow low case numbers to be reported. To get a true picture (anywhere) you need to consider cases, admissions and deaths and have consistent reporting to even compare this week with last let alone different places. So currently California cases / 100k are running a bit ahead of the UK but our 7 day rolling death rate is still over 200 day so around 6x as high on a population basis. Looking at deaths for example, then (if you believe them) Texas is actually doing a little better than California, and Florida quite a lot better.

One of my work duties is some statistical reporting and it drives me nuts to see some of the stuff purporting to be trend analysis that comes from executives fed by some of their managers who have no grasp of simple mathematics.
 
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sanjose_boro said:
Firstly, if you believe any of the numbers coming out of Texas and Florida (where they sent police to invade the home of an employee who blew the whistle on corrupt reporting) or Louisiana (where they are simply inept) I have a recent photo of a full NUFC trophy cabinet to sell you.

California numbers MAY be a little more truthful but even here it is expedient for the about to be recalled Governor to not encourage testing and allow low case numbers to be reported. To get a true picture (anywhere) you need to consider cases, admissions and deaths and have consistent reporting to even compare this week with last let alone different places. So currently California cases / 100k are running a bit ahead of the UK but our 7 day rolling death rate is still over 200 day so around 6x as high on a population basis. Looking at deaths for example, then (if you believe them) Texas is actually doing a little better than California, and Florida quite a lot better.

One of my work duties is some statistical reporting and it drives me nuts to see some of the stuff purporting to be trend analysis that comes from executives fed by some of their managers who have no grasp of simple mathematics.
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There is of course this to consider. I took the figures at face value for simplicity but no doubt political issues influence testing, reporting and disclosure to some degree
I wonder where Hulkster has gone.
 
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lurker said:
Even if it only makes one or two per cent difference that could mean the difference between life and death for thousands, if not millions, of people.

We need to stop this from spreading.
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One the other hand, there's absolutely no evidence at all that masks make any difference. Given that those vulnerable to the virus have now been offered the vaccine, to tell the entire population they must wear masks is frankly bizarre. Much like flu and the common cold, covid 19 will never be completely irradicated. Small numbers of people will continue to die from it forever, just like other viruses.

I would say if you want to clad the entire population in masks, something that has never been done before throughout human history, then we need a stronger case than "you never know, it might make a small difference".

Like so much of the response to covid, this is all very much "something must be done! Here something!".
 
Hulkster said:
One the other hand, there's absolutely no evidence at all that masks make any difference. Given that those vulnerable to the virus have now been offered the vaccine, to tell the entire population they must wear masks is frankly bizarre. Much like flu and the common cold, covid 19 will never be completely irradicated. Small numbers of people will continue to die from it forever, just like other viruses.

I would say if you want to clad the entire population in masks, something that has never been done before throughout human history, then we need a stronger case than "you never know, it might make a small difference".

Like so much of the response to covid, this is all very much "something must be done! Here something!".
Click to expand...
There is a mountain of scientific evidence to support mask wearing. Peer reviewed academic papers.
 

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