Six games (hopefully) a litmus test of LJ’s credentials to manage SAFC going forward.


Status
Not open for further replies.
I keep hearing this but don't really understand the relevance.

It's down to who you played and when - for example we've played Hull and Lincoln home and away under Johnson.

Johnson has taken a side from 10th (or wherever we were) up to 3rd. Surely that tells you he's managed better than Parkinson
It tells me that others have slipped up, since we aren't getting any more points than we were before and yet have risen in the table. Put it this way, he was sacked with us in 8th, 7 points off top (Hull). We were 5 points off Peterborough who were second and we had a game in hand. They ultimately remained the top two and we are now 9 behind Peterborough (without a game in hand) and 13 behind Hull (which can become 10 if we win the game in hand). That's not any type of progression.

And yes, of course it depends who you play and when, but it's still a decent indicator. If you have a manager so shit that you sack them in November you'd expect the next manager to do at least a bit better by the time he's had 30 games. In terms of who you play and when, in his 13 games Parkinson played (and beat) Peterborough, beat Oxford, drew with Charlton, played (but lost to) Portsmouth and beat Ipswich who at the time were 2nd. So it's not like it could be claim he had all the easy fixtures or anything. It's relevant because, ultimately, how many points you get from your games is all that matters
 
we arent playing particularly worse than we were playing when we went on an amazing run of good results. its fine margins. we arent very good, and the other teams around us aren't very good.

defence has went from 'solid' to 'shakey', and wyke went 5 games without a goal. owt could happen
Absolutely. In this past 6 games that have caused so much anger amongst SAFC fans, the balance of play should have brought us an extra 7-10 points. We played better in some of these draws and defeats than we did during some of the games in the winning run!

The squad that has been assembled has fundamental flaws. Add to this the sheer volume of the injury crisis that has been experienced and it's probably surprising we're where we are. Remember that thread at the start of the year that compared the injury load experienced by PP and LJ? Well, since that we've spent the last two months with only one fit centre half. Ultimately we are what we are. Just as there was an overreaction to the somewhat stuffy run we went on to get into automatic contention, there has also been an overreaction to the correction we've now seen.
 
It tells me that others have slipped up, since we aren't getting any more points than we were before and yet have risen in the table. Put it this way, he was sacked with us in 8th, 7 points off top (Hull). We were 5 points off Peterborough who were second and we had a game in hand. They ultimately remained the top two and we are now 9 behind Peterborough (without a game in hand) and 13 behind Hull (which can become 10 if we win the game in hand). That's not any type of progression.

And yes, of course it depends who you play and when, but it's still a decent indicator. If you have a manager so shit that you sack them in November you'd expect the next manager to do at least a bit better by the time he's had 30 games. In terms of who you play and when, in his 13 games Parkinson played (and beat) Peterborough, beat Oxford, drew with Charlton, played (but lost to) Portsmouth and beat Ipswich who at the time were 2nd. So it's not like it could be claim he had all the easy fixtures or anything. It's relevant because, ultimately, how many points you get from your games is all that matters

So if we are 5 points behind someone after 23 games, and 7 points behind after 46, is that an improvement on ppg or worse off because we are 7 behind ?

It's simply down to league placings. The only time ppg is/was relevant was last season and that ended in a farce
 
Credit to @samaistonsrightfoot for the analysis. It won't have got any better for Johnson after this thread was created. In fact, straight after it, we dropped down to only one fit centre half - a situation we're yet to come out of. PPG is a useful metric that helps to describe what is happening - and Johnson is far from perfect - but we have to look at all things that have happened to draw conclusions. If we'd got even half of the points that we 'should' have got from the last 6 would we be seeing the reaction we currently are?
I can't see any of the teams who might end up in the playoffs beating us over two legs. In a one off final it's anybody's game
Agree with this. We're a better team than any of the teams we're likely to face. Over two legs you'd hope that this will tell. In a one-off game, these errors that have started to happen could well kill us. If we can find a way to somehow eliminate these from our game, our attacking quality (that we showed again even on Saturday) should carry us through.
 
Last edited:
So if we are 5 points behind someone after 23 games, and 7 points behind after 46, is that an improvement on ppg or worse off because we are 7 behind ?

It's simply down to league placings. The only time ppg is/was relevant was last season and that ended in a farce
Its not an improvement on PPG. Under Parkinson we were 1.77 points per game, and under Johnson we're 1.69 points per game. Hull have slowed down in terms of how far ahead they're getting because they've dropped from 2.31 points per game whilst Parkinson was here, to 1.77 since Johnson was appointed. And it's worse because we're now further behind.

To be honest I wasn't really going to get into a debate about ppg and its merits, other than to point out that when someone said "we've moved up in the table, surely that means he's doing something right", it isn't necessarily true. We're not winning points with more regularity than we were under Parkinson so the moving up the table thing is a bit misleading. Don't get me wrong, with Covid and the defensive injuries there's certainly an element of mitigating circumstances there, but you certainly can't judge that he's improved things just because we're in a higher position
 
Say we forget what’s happened in the recent past (oh if we could) and look at what the next (potentially) six games could mean not only for the future of the club but as a test of Lee Johnson’s managerial credentials.

It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that 3 wins from the next six games could ensure promotion.

For arguments sake say we draw tomorrow night (1-1 anyone?) and win at Plymouth at the weekend.

Northampton, a side desperate for a result to stay in the league then come to Sunderland and secure the point that keeps them up.

That would leave us on 78 points which I think would be enough to secure 3rd or at worst 4th place in the final table.

Another draw in our first leg play off semifinal is followed by a narrow victory in the return leg taking us back to Wembley having achieved two wins from five.

A final victory would ensure promotion achievable from a win every other game in our last six.

Looks pretty straightforward....... what could possibly go wrong?

Over to you Lee
Blackpool tomorrow is a real barometer for the playoffs. They really have to win.

It is probable one more point (certainly 3) will ensure playoffs anyhow. It is practically impossible to flunk it.

Plymouth are about the worst form team in the country. Not sure what has happened since mid-season when they were play off contenders and dominated at the SOL.

It would add the pressure if still waiting on that win into the last game but Northampton are probably down by then - unless they get something out of Blackpool in their next game.

If Sunderland lose the next two (highly unlikely) it is equally unlikely they could enter the last fixture in 7th place. If that was to happen Charlton and Portsmouth would have to go on a winning streak. Including Charlton beating Lincoln!

It really is a question of momentum into the playoffs.
 
So if we are 5 points behind someone after 23 games, and 7 points behind after 46, is that an improvement on ppg or worse off because we are 7 behind ?

It's simply down to league placings. The only time ppg is/was relevant was last season and that ended in a farce

Eh? That makes no sense. That would only make any sense if Hull had gained the exact same amount of points per game since LJ came in. They haven’t they’ve achieved considerably worse, as have Sunderland.

Put plain and simple, if we kept performing at the same ppg with Parkinson, despite how bad and shit he obviously was, we’d actually have more points than we have now under Johnson.
 
Eh? That makes no sense. That would only make any sense if Hull had gained the exact same amount of points per game since LJ came in. They haven’t they’ve achieved considerably worse, as have Sunderland.

Put plain and simple, if we kept performing at the same ppg with Parkinson, despite how bad and shit he obviously was, we’d actually have more points than we have now under Johnson.
Using ppg as a guide makes no sense, it's the league placings that matter.

Always has done, always will do - except for last season's exceptional circumstances
 
People love ignoring context on this forum.

the injuries we have had under Johnson, for example, have been nightmarish. He also picked up a poorly assembled squad which he could only marginally impact with signings because of the salary cap and lack of places. The covid outbreak shortly after his arrival didn’t do him any favors either.

It’s far too simple just to say “PPG is worse”, it leaves out so much important information.

The recent run has been frustrating but we haven’t actually played that badly in most games, more that key decisions and crucial moments in play have gone against us where they were going for us previously.

The worry for me is that as much as I think Johnson has done very well to drag us into top two contention, we have also bottled it again when the stakes were raised. Maybe that’s just a hangover from recent seasons on my part and I’m reading too much into a blip at an unfortunate time but it does make me nervous about certain players ability to cope with pressure ahead of play offs. If Burge could stop throwing the ball in his own net that would be a huge help for example.

I can understand why people are disappointed but the reaction has been way over the top from many. In the general consensus, Johnson has gone from doing a great job to utterly useless in the space of a couple of weeks which is ridiculous.

Hopefully we can use the last couple of games to re-set, get some confidence and unity back, then give it a real go in the play offs. Sanderson coming back would be huge.
 
Recruitment that happened under a wage cap that no longer exists. I'd also argue we're not going to know what Stewart is capable of until next season, given he had four months out and has only played largely as a sub.
He’ll offer just the same as Wyke at best an out and out target man who’ll struggle without service and are we saying the others were just spending for sake of it ? Or are they the level Johnson believes can do a job ?
 
Using ppg as a guide makes no sense, it's the league placings that matter.

Always has done, always will do - except for last season's exceptional circumstances
There's definitely value in PPG.It shouldn't be dismissed. However, equally the dismissal of the fact that we were the 8th best team in league one when PP was fired and are now the 3rd best team in league one is a bit disingenuous. As with everything, there is no single stat or data point that can answer definitively what is going on. It has to be a combination of factors.
 
There's definitely value in PPG.It shouldn't be dismissed. However, equally the dismissal of the fact that we were the 8th best team in league one when PP was fired and are now the 3rd best team in league one is a bit disingenuous. As with everything, there is no single stat or data point that can answer definitively what is going on. It has to be a combination of factors.

Like playing everybody twice. Then you get a genuine reflection on how you've performed against your peers
 
we arent playing particularly worse than we were playing when we went on an amazing run of good results. its fine margins. we arent very good, and the other teams around us aren't very good.

defence has went from 'solid' to 'shakey', and wyke went 5 games without a goal. owt could happen
Central defence has been decimated by injury and our keeper appears to be going through some sort of decision making crisis, all of which hasn't helped and you can hardly blame the manager for.
 
bu parkisons points per game ratio is higher than johnsons..implying parkinson did better with the same group?
ppg is nonsense if its not a level playing field for instance we played hull/posh/pompey all away under LJ but home under PP , didn't play Lincoln/Blackpool at all under LJ ,we were all complaining last season about Wycombe going up but its the same thing.
 
ppg is nonsense if its not a level playing field for instance we played hull/posh/pompey all away under LJ but home under PP , didn't play Lincoln/Blackpool at all under LJ ,we were all complaining last season about Wycombe going up but its the same thing.
of course stats have to be seen in that context..also the context of..LJ had 300k and more o spend in january...parkinson didint.
 
More Winchester’s Vodkin’s and Stewart’s ?
Forgetting the salary cap that was still in play at that moment? It only stopped after the window had closed, no surprise we had to hunt around for the players you mentioned.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top