Russia invading Ukraine (NEWS/UPDATES) - Please put sensitive content behind a spoiler



Lord Potts said:
Putin falls down stairs and craps himself.

www.mirror.co.uk

Vladimir Putin 'falls down stairs and soils himself' after claims he has cancer

Russian Telegram channel named General SVR has regularly claimed that Vladimir Putin is plagued by a number of health conditions, including cancer, despite the Kremlin's insistence that the despot is in good health
www.mirror.co.uk www.mirror.co.uk

Read in to that what you might.
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Works for me, Im choosing to suspend my disbelief and believe it. Cracking start to the weekend.
 
Wild Card said:
Honestly, im not sure.

I would like to think Russia can be pushed right out of Crimea and all other territories . However, who knows what Zelensky is prepared to accept behind closed doors. Who knows how much strain leaders are actually under beneath the surface domestically. He might feel its a fair trade, he might not of course.

At least it looks like Putin is calming down and he is speaking to people again. Would rather see him dead mind.

Maybe his words were chosen carefully and he is telling Putin, there is your off ramp take it or leave it?

I would love to be a fly on the wall in these discussions.
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i'd sooner see him in prison tbh. i'd like him to have plenty of time alone in a cell alone to contemplate what he's done. that goes for the rest of his lickspittles.
 
Bulwell said:
I would think of it like a chess game, if you're a Queen up you won't be taking a draw, a Queen down and you'll snap their hand off for a draw.

Ukraine won't be giving up territory in this position, Russia have probably shot their bolt. Russia have much less hardware than at the start, could well need another mobilisation and their economy will start to bite.

Ukraine on the other hand are very comfortable, Russia have been going nowhere for months and it looks like NATO countries will not allow them to lose. ATACMS, F16's and western tanks haven't been sent yet because I think NATO don't want Russia to collapse, they want Russia to bleed out slowly. Plenty more left in the tank if Russia find another gear.

This war has become protracted and Russia may only still be fighting it because they don't have a better alternative. Russia can't afford to be fighting this war for years with no outcome in sight. For Ukraine this war is existential so they have no choice and are plenty willing and the west will rebuild them, no one is coming to Russia's rescue.
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I wouldn't describe Ukraine as comfortable.

Shivering in the dark is nee fun at all - especially if you're old, unwell or have babies to care for
 
smoker said:
The only way Ukraine loses this war is if the west stops supporting them, which would be pretty idiotic given the much higher cost of another Cold War or Round 2 in Poland or the Baltics.
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Think it also shows that no one rogue nation can stand up to the might of a united western front.

12ft |

12ft.io 12ft.io

Oil cap on Russia oil exports finally agreed.

Didn't realise that part of the hold up was from Poland because they wanted to cut them deeper with the cap
 
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MonkeyLove said:
I think the Kremlin did have plans to take over all Ukraine. I’m not convinced though about plans to kill the leadership.

As dodgy as Russias missiles are they are accurate enough that they could today fire a barrage of a hundred and take out the Rada and Zelenskys office that he has been very open about working from. They have had the means from the start but despite all their other indiscriminate firing and targeting energy infrastructure they have never targeted Ukraine’s political leadership. Which to be honest they do have the capability to do:
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I remember from the first couple of weeks of the invasion that there were special ops/under cover Russians in Kyiv hunting down Zelensky. He moves around the whole time so they could not find him. He was trolling the Russians by appearing in videos appearing to be openly walking around the streets of Kyiv. The plan was to remove Zelensky and install their own puppet (previous corrupt President Yanukovych who used to have ostriches strutting around the grounds of his palace). He had been living in exile in Russia. Seemigly, he was waiting for this to happen just over the border in Belarous.
 
jcrossan said:
Can't see how Ukraine will get Crimea back. Not unless NATO (The US) provides massive amounts of air and sea capabilities. Geographically how do you launch an invasion? Would have to be by sea and air ( you can hardly just cross into the area by that big bridge - it would be shooting fish in a barrel) - but there is nowhere near that capability at the moment and doubt the US will provide lots of fighters/bombers even if you could train pilots.

Heck D Day was years in the planning and needed the biggest invasion force in history. Meanwhile expecting a mass uprising by those in Crimea is unlikely. Many don't care for Russians but many others dont care much for Ukrainians either.
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Crimea will be the easiest to get back. If Ukraine can get down to the Sea of Azov and split the Russians in two then the only way for Russia to supply Crimea and Kherson Oblast is by the Kerch Bridge. The Russians can be suffocated like they were in Kherson City.

Once all of Kherson is liberated then all of Crimea is in HIMARS range so the Russians won't be able to use the port of Sevastopol and the Kerch Bridge will be taken out properly.
 
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jcrossan said:
Can't see how Ukraine will get Crimea back. Not unless NATO (The US) provides massive amounts of air and sea capabilities. Geographically how do you launch an invasion? Would have to be by sea and air ( you can hardly just cross into the area by that big bridge - it would be shooting fish in a barrel) - but there is nowhere near that capability at the moment and doubt the US will provide lots of fighters/bombers even if you could train pilots.

Heck D Day was years in the planning and needed the biggest invasion force in history. Meanwhile expecting a mass uprising by those in Crimea is unlikely. Many don't care for Russians but many others dont care much for Ukrainians either.
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It's a peninsula not an island. There's a 7 mile wide land bridge in the west.
 
Bulwell said:
Crimea will be the easiest to get back. If Ukraine can get down to the Sea of Azov and split the Russians in two then the only way for Russia to supply Crimea and Kherson Oblast is by the Kerch Bridge. The Russians can be suffocated like they were in Kherson City.

Once all of Kherson is liberated then all of Crimea is in HIMARS range so the Russians won't be able to use the port of Sevastopol and the Kerch Bridge will be taken out properly.
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The only way this will end is if Ukraine are prepared to give up Crimea, unpalatable as that is. Holding onto it now that it’s been populated by Russians would be hard enough. It’s gone. Get the rest back and seek peace, with guarantees from the allies.
 
Feed the Monster said:
bingo.
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Where are they then? I don't think it was a controversial statement at all. Returning Ukraine to its pre 2014 borders is wishful thinking, as a result of this conflict anyway.

However, Russia have got a raft of crippling economic sanctions and hard economic borders to overcome now, which are unlikely to be softened off the back of any peace negotiations. Any land they take will wither with them.
 
TexasMackem said:
Where are they then? I don't think it was a controversial statement at all. Returning Ukraine to its pre 2014 borders is wishful thinking, as a result of this conflict anyway.

However, Russia have got a raft of crippling economic sanctions and hard economic borders to overcome now, which are unlikely to be softened off the back of any peace negotiations. Any land they take will wither with them.
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Oil embargo starts tomorrow as well.
 
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SurreyMackem said:
Russian losses, troop numbers still high at 550, equipment losses creeping back up but very little reporting from the Ukraine side to justify these estimates amid lots of claims from pro-Russian sources of heavy Ukrainian casualties
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The loss numbers are guesses and wishes from the Ukraine propaganda department. No one knows what the losses of either side are on a day by day basis, although Ukraine are probably better placed to understand at least their own losses (at some point afterwards) as they do seem to care about them.

Trying to justify guessed losses against armchair experts pontificating on the course of the war is a pointless exercise. We're still not entirely sure of losses in some ww2 campaigns.
 

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