Russia invading Ukraine (NEWS/UPDATES) - Please put sensitive content behind a spoiler



Hate to say it but 500k troops if true thrown into the fight will be a formidable opponent regardless of what level of training and equipment they have. Particularly when coupled with Russias tactics of not giving a toss about casualties.

My hope at this stage would be the Russian troops would be completely ineffective due to logistic (Partly Russian incompetence and partly Ukraine targeting them) and morale. But Bakhmut shows that even if it comes at a massive cost they are still able to move forward through sheer numbers.

Hopefully Ukraine have got a few tricks up their sleeve but the momentum might swing a bit to Russia in the next few weeks and the news might not be as positive as it had been for months prior to Christmas
 
MonkeyLove said:
Hate to say it but 500k troops if true thrown into the fight will be a formidable opponent regardless of what level of training and equipment they have. Particularly when coupled with Russias tactics of not giving a toss about casualties.

My hope at this stage would be the Russian troops would be completely ineffective due to logistic (Partly Russian incompetence and partly Ukraine targeting them) and morale. But Bakhmut shows that even if it comes at a massive cost they are still able to move forward through sheer numbers.

Hopefully Ukraine have got a few tricks up their sleeve but the momentum might swing a bit to Russia in the next few weeks and the news might not be as positive as it had been for months prior to Christmas
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I suppose a lot depends on what kit the Russians have. If the Ukrainians have well prepared defenses and can target the supply lines then it could go either way. Thousands of dead Russians might just have an impact on the population back in Russia.
 
Market Where? said:
I suppose a lot depends on what kit the Russians have. If the Ukrainians have well prepared defenses and can target the supply lines then it could go either way. Thousands of dead Russians might just have an impact on the population back in Russia.
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They need to split the Southern part then take out the Kerch bridge.
 
MonkeyLove said:
Hate to say it but 500k troops if true thrown into the fight will be a formidable opponent regardless of what level of training and equipment they have. Particularly when coupled with Russias tactics of not giving a toss about casualties.

My hope at this stage would be the Russian troops would be completely ineffective due to logistic (Partly Russian incompetence and partly Ukraine targeting them) and morale. But Bakhmut shows that even if it comes at a massive cost they are still able to move forward through sheer numbers.

Hopefully Ukraine have got a few tricks up their sleeve but the momentum might swing a bit to Russia in the next few weeks and the news might not be as positive as it had been for months prior to Christmas
Click to expand...

Bakhmut does not show that.

It shows that a well defended and well prepared settlement can hold out for an improbable period of time against poorly coordinated attacks consisting of mainly unsupported infantry.

We’re just now on the verge of thinking it might fall in the next month or so but only because of the risk of encirclement.
 
Gelan said:
They need to split the Southern part then take out the Kerch bridge.
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Got to repel any Russian offensive first. The good thing is that if the Russians are throwing 300-500000 troops at it then they can’t hide where the attack will be giving the Ukrainians chance to prepare.
An offensive that big will likely determine the outcome of the war. If the Ukrainians repel it and inflict massive casualty and equipment losses then you would think the Russian military will pretty much give up.
Mind even if the Russians win and roll over a lot of Ukrainian territory they still have to keep it with a load of experienced Ukrainian resistance against them.
 
Market Where? said:
Mind even if the Russians win and roll over a lot of Ukrainian territory they still have to keep it with a load of experienced Ukrainian resistance against them.
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This is what I don't get...if they lose thousands taking a few fields and hundreds more holding them, how the hell are they going to occupy the whole of Ukraine? Think they'd lose a million just trying, plus if they can't support 150,000 how will they support half a million.
 
MonkeyLove said:
Hate to say it but 500k troops if true thrown into the fight will be a formidable opponent regardless of what level of training and equipment they have. Particularly when coupled with Russias tactics of not giving a toss about casualties.

My hope at this stage would be the Russian troops would be completely ineffective due to logistic (Partly Russian incompetence and partly Ukraine targeting them) and morale. But Bakhmut shows that even if it comes at a massive cost they are still able to move forward through sheer numbers.

Hopefully Ukraine have got a few tricks up their sleeve but the momentum might swing a bit to Russia in the next few weeks and the news might not be as positive as it had been for months prior to Christmas
Click to expand...

Given their known areas of weakness, I would expect a large proportion of the troops would be logistical or support rather than front line. Lets say a tooth to tail ratio of 50% for Russia, which seems fair although there are reports that it has been significantly less, even with the early 2000 reforms. That would put 250,000 well supported troops onto the front line for an equivalent of 20 new Brigades (unless the 500k includes the current estimated 300k). Whether this is fanciful, catastrophising, or fearmongering remains to be seen.
 
Gelan said:
This is what I don't get...if they lose thousands taking a few fields and hundreds more holding them, how the hell are they going to occupy the whole of Ukraine? Think they'd lose a million just trying, plus if they can't support 150,000 how will they support half a million.
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They aren’t. And I don’t think that’s their actual goal.

Their actual goal will be the four illegally annexed oblasts, cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea and creating a land corridor to the Moldovan / Romanian border, and regime change in Kiev leaving what remains of the country as a sort of puppet state like Belarus.
 
Belch said:
Wagner Group dwindling numbers may make things more difficult for R.F.

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Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ The Wagner Group's 'human wave' attacks, which have left the area around Bakhmut and Soledar strewn with the bodies of dead Wagner fighters, have been described in detail by a Russian source. It exp...…
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The political struggle there is something that has the potential to cause a huge problem for Russia.

The fact they’re deploying multiple semi-autonomous groups like Wagner, like the Chechens, the DPR/LPR territorial militias and the RF Armed Forces has probably been a contributor to their organisational issues.
 
30,000 troops since Christmas is insane, it's 275,000 a year, where are these troops getting the weapons, I imagine as many rifles are picked up by Ukraine as kept by Russia and a lot of them will have been damaged.
EDIT, I hope these figures are an underestimation.
 
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