smoker
Striker
The Russians reinforced their troops from 12k to 25-30k. Ukraine operate operational secrecy but impartial sources reckoned they had about 60:40 advantage in Kherson prior to the reinforcement. This would give them 18,000 troops.
This would give Russia 58:42 to 62:38 advantage which is roughly the same numerical superiority they had in Severodonetsk but in a flatter topography that offers less defensive protection. Even Arestovych, Ukraine's Comical Ali has said the Russians will attempt to launch an offensive from the Kherson salient, towards Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih.
Russian numbers are inflated by reservists but you don't really need high quality infantry when your strategy is to indiscriminately shell your opponent's lines and occupy the rubble.
We are being too complacent about Russia's military power because of the feel good factor of Himars. Russia has a backlog of 10-15 million artillery rounds. They could keep shelling at their current rate till March 2023 and then re-supply from some ne'er-do-well regime like NK or China. Himars provides temporary disruption to logistics but it needs supplying and Russia are not going to run out of shells any time soon.
TL;DR: Ukraine needs more shells and missiles quicker. Shorten the supply line by sending NATO troops to defend Ukraine's western (Transnistria) and northern (Belarus) borders and their western nuclear power stations (there's another one just North of Mykolaiv BTW). A pretext could be built very easily, based on their hooliganism at Zaporizhia.
