Russia invading Ukraine (NEWS/UPDATES) - Please put sensitive content behind a spoiler

One thing I can’t understand is where Russia have got this latest Southern reinforcement from.

Ukraine‘s presidential advisor was saying tonight that their are at least 8-10 Russian battle groups moving to shore up Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Potentially up to 25 BTGs.

Suggestion is they are moving from Donbas but if that’s the case surely we should see Ukraine make progress in Donetsk oblast.

I can’t help but think Russia would have already done it if they could just pull 10-25k troops out of this air. If they can’t and they are relocating from other fronts in the East then surely we should expect to see Ukraine make some progress there.

If Russia can shore up the south and continue to make, albeit slow, progress in the East then it suggest Ukraine are really up against it
 


MonkeyLove said:
One thing I can’t understand is where Russia have got this latest Southern reinforcement from.

Ukraine‘s presidential advisor was saying tonight that their are at least 8-10 Russian battle groups moving to shore up Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Potentially up to 25 BTGs.

Suggestion is they are moving from Donbas but if that’s the case surely we should see Ukraine make progress in Donetsk oblast.

I can’t help but think Russia would have already done it if they could just pull 10-25k troops out of this air. If they can’t and they are relocating from other fronts in the East then surely we should expect to see Ukraine make some progress there.

If Russia can shore up the south and continue to make, albeit slow, progress in the East then it suggest Ukraine are really up against it
Click to expand...
from reading the updates from reputable sources like our intelligence services and the ISW, the guff that’s shouted about the Russian army being a spent force is just that. Guff.

Some people dont want to hear it but there’s a long long way to go yet and the longer this conflict drags on the more a meat grind works against the Ukrainians and the more Putin believes he can weaponise power and weaken support for the Ukrainians.

in other news my neighbour has been asked to drive in an aid convoy to Kharkiv organised by a Polish charity based in the Toon and I’ve offered to relief drive. Slim chance I’m needed but it would be good to do a bit to help.
 
Feed the Monster said:
from reading the updates from reputable sources like our intelligence services and the ISW, the guff that’s shouted about the Russian army being a spent force is just that. Guff.

Some people dont want to hear it but there’s a long long way to go yet and the longer this conflict drags on the more a meat grind works against the Ukrainians and the more Putin believes he can weaponise power and weaken support for the Ukrainians.

in other news my neighbour has been asked to drive in an aid convoy to Kharkiv organised by a Polish charity based in the Toon and I’ve offered to relief drive. Slim chance I’m needed but it would be good to do a bit to help.
Click to expand...

I agree with the bit about this has a long long way to run. Not sure I agree with who would be in the meat grinder though.

At the moment Ukraine have a large number of trained forces (They have put 700k through two years military service since 2014), their problem is mobility in moving them due to a lack of armour and APCs, and too a lesser extent weaponary. They are also training new groups with Western help from World leading forces in the UK, US and Canada.

Russia on the other hand are supposedly desperately trying to sign on new recruits, are using mercenaries and supposedly conscripting anyone who can walk and hold a gun in the occupied territories.

Russia are no where near done, but from what I’m reading neither are Ukraine. They have reserves and with Bi Partisan support in the US, the same in the UK and a number of other key European allies also being politically solid I can’t see Western weapons drying up any time soon
 
MonkeyLove said:
One thing I can’t understand is where Russia have got this latest Southern reinforcement from.

Ukraine‘s presidential advisor was saying tonight that their are at least 8-10 Russian battle groups moving to shore up Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Potentially up to 25 BTGs.

Suggestion is they are moving from Donbas but if that’s the case surely we should see Ukraine make progress in Donetsk oblast.

I can’t help but think Russia would have already done it if they could just pull 10-25k troops out of this air. If they can’t and they are relocating from other fronts in the East then surely we should expect to see Ukraine make some progress there.

If Russia can shore up the south and continue to make, albeit slow, progress in the East then it suggest Ukraine are really up against it
Click to expand...

Some interesting analysis here:

www.linkedin.com

Robin Horsfall on LinkedIn: The clever General will win the next phase of this war Putin has moved… | 211 comments

The clever General will win the next phase of this war Putin has moved his armies to reinforce Kherson in response to the build up of Ukrainian forces. In so… | 211 comments on LinkedIn
www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
 
lurker said:
I think it’s all relevant, it helps to understand the ‘Muscovite mindset’ they think they’re indestructible.

A tanned arse on the world stage is what they need. Worked wonders for Japan.
Click to expand...
Hiroshima & Nagasaki? at least Russia has not resorted this kind of scenario yet and let's hope they don't
 
Feed the Monster said:
from reading the updates from reputable sources like our intelligence services and the ISW, the guff that’s shouted about the Russian army being a spent force is just that. Guff
Click to expand...

Aye. Getting a bit sick of all the happy clapping about the state of the war while drip feeding them the weapons they need, tying their hands and refusing to get our own hands dirty. Iran, China and NK are sensing weakness and getting involved. Are we going to expect Ukraine to kill 100k North Koreans?
raindog said:
Hiroshima & Nagasaki? at least Russia has not resorted this kind of scenario yet and let's hope they don't
Click to expand...

Whataboutism
 
Last edited:
luvulongtime said:
they never had any
Click to expand...
No spetnatz ??
Monty Pigeon said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1555900945929732097
Click to expand...
Brilliant, get one on side of Lenin's tomb.
Feed the Monster said:
Agree about St P but have to disagree about Moscow. Horrible, sprawling concrete eastern block monstrosity, St Basils and some stunning underground stations excepted. Thought it was a really ugly city myself, granted not having had too many chances to see it in detail as I was always there for work.
Click to expand...
Went Moscow in 2001. Red Sq and St Basil's , Kremlin , the Lubjanka (sic) all great to see having read/heard about them, but as you say, not a particularly attractive city at all, and the people were not friendly. Glad I went, but wudnt bother returning.
 
Last edited:
Kevj said:
Some interesting analysis here:

www.linkedin.com

Robin Horsfall on LinkedIn: The clever General will win the next phase of this war Putin has moved… | 211 comments

The clever General will win the next phase of this war Putin has moved his armies to reinforce Kherson in response to the build up of Ukrainian forces. In so… | 211 comments on LinkedIn
www.linkedin.com www.linkedin.com
Click to expand...
Feels like hopium. Ukraine doesn't seem to have the firepower for major offensives yet. They may never have it if we don't deliver heavy weapons in a big enough chunk to make a quantum impact.

The area south of Izyum was low hanging fruit (difficult to defend flat terrain) which is why I thought it would fall if Russia removed troops. Pushing further north will require a river crossing and assaulting higher ground which would require firepower they don't yet have.
 
smoker said:
Feels like hopium. Ukraine doesn't seem to have the firepower for major offensives yet. They may never have it if we don't deliver heavy weapons in a big enough chunk to make a quantum impact.

The area south of Izyum was low hanging fruit (difficult to defend flat terrain) which is why I thought it would fall if Russia removed troops. Pushing further north will require a river crossing and assaulting higher ground which would require firepower they don't yet have.
Click to expand...
Hearing Reports Ukraine have themselves some F16s and HARM missiles.

Russia have nothing that can counter that sort of heat if true.
 
lurker said:
Hearing Reports Ukraine have themselves some F16s and HARM missiles.

Russia have nothing that can counter that sort of heat if true.
Click to expand...

Great news if true, but how? The US bill to train the pilots only got passed last month and the reports reckoned six months to train the pilots.

I'd laugh if they came from Turkey.
 
smoker said:
Great news if true, but how? The US bill to train the pilots only got passed last month and the reports reckoned six months to train the pilots.

I'd laugh if they came from Turkey.
Click to expand...
Contingency planning from February and lots of volunteer pilots with, up until now, nothing to fly I’d say!

Wonder if that’s what sank that ship?
 
I see the Ivans going full Jonestown at the Zaporizhzia nuclear power plant. Be a hell of a bang if it goes up.

Looks like Ivans strategy in Kherson is just blow it up if it cannot be held. Scorched earth policy.
 
Blyth_Pirate said:
I see the Ivans going full Jonestown at the Zaporizhzia nuclear power plant. Be a hell of a bang if it goes up.

Looks like Ivans strategy in Kherson is just blow it up if it cannot be held. Scorched earth policy.
Click to expand...
Aye, bastards.

If the Ukrainians are getting f16s should go on the offensive over the border with them.

Israel does it to Iran all the time.
 
lurker said:
Aye, bastards.

If the Ukrainians are getting f16s should go on the offensive over the border with them.

Israel does it to Iran all the time.
Click to expand...
Putin only understands power, something the Western leaderships appear to lack in abundance. Vlad is basically blackmailing the whole world.
 
smoker said:
Any links? Russians are supposed to be gearing up for an offensive there, not retreating. You don't move in 30k troops to retreat.
Click to expand...
Probs to counter the Ukrainian offensive. 30,000 unmotivated and in many cases pressed gang recruits. One hopes there's a lot of quick Russian fatalities. Could be some cracking targets for Himars, from what I've seen thus far the Russian troops are severely lacking in basic field craft, even basic soldering.
 

Back
Top