Russia invading Ukraine (NEWS/UPDATES) - Please put sensitive content behind a spoiler



I can't see any way that Russia, with its current societal structure, can ever allow a direct neighbour to flourish unhampered as anything like a liberal democracy. It's too much of an existential threat. The Russian elite have too much to lose and the Russian people have too little representation or power to break the cycle - the mind boggles at the systemic change necessary to turn the Russian juggernaut.

It panders to the Russian national pysche and the self interest of the ruling class to have a state of constant frozen or proxy war. Removing Putin alone won't be enough I fear. Real change might take a generation and only with the genuine will to see it through.

On the other side, I don't trust the Corporate West to allow unhindered reform.

It's all a bit bleak...
 
I can't see any way that Russia, with its current societal structure, can ever allow a direct neighbour to flourish unhampered as anything like a liberal democracy. It's too much of an existential threat. The Russian elite have too much to lose and the Russian people have too little representation or power to break the cycle - the mind boggles at the systemic change necessary to turn the Russian juggernaut.

It panders to the Russian national pysche and the self interest of the ruling class to have a state of constant frozen or proxy war. Removing Putin alone won't be enough I fear. Real change might take a generation and only with the genuine will to see it through.

On the other side, I don't trust the Corporate West to allow unhindered reform.

It's all a bit bleak...
Having taught and worked with Russians they are simply living the same brainwashed nonsense as China and America. There are others on here might say the same about the foreign countries they.ve lived and worked in. Spain being one example.

they were all just normal, decent people. It's the oppressive governments...I don't think we'll get out of this as a species for another 100 years. Regardless of the country.
 
Part of the deal to allow Finland and Sweden into NATO. Kurdish autonomy paid a heavy price, the two countries had to sever ties with the PKK and affiliates they have been supporting.

Cheers. Shame we can't just chuck them out of NATO, but clearly, they are aware that they are indispensable.
 
Having taught and worked with Russians they are simply living the same brainwashed nonsense as China and America. There are others on here might say the same about the foreign countries they.ve lived and worked in. Spain being one example.

they were all just normal, decent people. It's the oppressive governments...I don't think we'll get out of this as a species for another 100 years. Regardless of the country.
I sort of made an expanded version of this in my fucked up head Probability Calculator and give our species 15 years at the most.

We are royally screwed it's sad to say :(
 
Every day the game gets easier for Ukraine and harder for Russia and we only have to look at the map that the Russians have gone nowhere since the first fortnight of the war.
Mate I admire your continued optimism in this thread but what I've quoted here is so wildly detached from the reality of the situation. Even Zelenskiy said at the G7 that he needs this war to be over before the winter starts or else Ukraine will face catastrophic challenges (a lot of the country already has no gas, water or electricity, and it's only summer now). And your comment about Russia going nowhere since the first fortnight of the war is simply untrue. They've taken over almost the entirety of the east and south of the country, which is also the lifeblood of the Ukrainian economy. We're all rooting for Ukraine to win but we need to be realistic, and that means listening to what the Ukrainian military and political leadership itself is saying, rather than the same unnamed "US officials" or "an expert from a US-based think tank" who have been predicting the collapse of the Russian army "within the next few weeks" ever since early March.
 
Mate I admire your continued optimism in this thread but what I've quoted here is so wildly detached from the reality of the situation. Even Zelenskiy said at the G7 that he needs this war to be over before the winter starts or else Ukraine will face catastrophic challenges (a lot of the country already has no gas, water or electricity, and it's only summer now). And your comment about Russia going nowhere since the first fortnight of the war is simply untrue. They've taken over almost the entirety of the east and south of the country, which is also the lifeblood of the Ukrainian economy. We're all rooting for Ukraine to win but we need to be realistic, and that means listening to what the Ukrainian military and political leadership itself is saying, rather than the same unnamed "US officials" or "an expert from a US-based think tank" who have been predicting the collapse of the Russian army "within the next few weeks" ever since early March.

He’s basically right though. That strip of land on the Southern Coast broadly between Mariupol and Odessa was taken in the first 2-3 weeks of the invasion. All they’ve really achieved since then is going into reverse around Kiev, Sumy and Kharkiv to redeploy and consolidate in the east by pounding cities to rubble and advancing at a snails pace.

Now they can keep doing that of course, but for how long? We’ve already seen how bad they are at supplying troops when there was no prospect of supply line disruption. That’s now changed. Withdrawal from Snake Island as a ‘goodwill gesture’, legislation to allow men up to age 65 to join the army, use of anti-ship weapons on land. All points to things not being rosy for them. One thing we know is they cannot keep going indefinitely. Their aim is likely consolidation once (if) the Donetsk region is fully under their control. Will that be tenable as more and more western weaponry and more and more trained soldiers arrive?

It’s incumbent on Zelensky to reiterate the urgency of the situation to the West. It’s in his interest for them to do more and more.
 
I think the next 2-3 weeks are critical. The Russians resorted to pounding the fuck out of everything with artillery and then taking the ground as the Ukrainians seem to be carrying out fighting withdrawals but did not have the ability to take on the Russian artillery. However they still reportedly caused massive Russian casualties. In the last few days they seem to have received much more accurate and long range weapons and look to be targeting Russian ammo supplies and command centers. Smart move as if you take on the guns then it takes a long time to knock them all out but take out the supply and command centers and things may turn quickly. The Russians have also blown everything up so resupply is not going to be easy.
Add in the withdrawal from snake island and now apparently guerilla activity behind Russian lines then it’s going to be tough for them. I can see a Russian announcement that the worst of the Ukrainian “nazi’ forces were destroyed in their special operation and now they are withdrawing.
Ukraine are drawing our Russian resources of manpower and hanging on until their recruits are ready to feed into the fight and at the point when the Russians are at the point of collapse.

All along they have said things will change about from August.
 

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