Playoff Chances - 35%


I think the odds are a bit higher than that. My gut feeling is that we will make it, and that feeling is growing stronger after watching a potential Blackburn winning goal crash into the bar and straight down near the goal line in the final few minutes against Luton. If that thing was 1 cm lower Blackburn would have taken 3 points.
 
but you need to win - we will probably be able to lose and still be ok

somebody just put up on the cov site

Blackburn have lost 1 of their last 14 v millwall
Sunderland have not won in their last 7 v preston

A Blackburn win would be right up our street.

I can well imagine our record at most of the teams this season wasn't too good before this season. We're 4th best in the league away from home. I'm not saying Coventry will miss out. Our helping hand will come in the Millwall Blackburn game.
 
I think Coventry are a bit too high, us a little too low and Blackburn and WBA a bit too high too.
For Coventry not to make it, a load of results need to go against them, in addition to their losing: we would need a win; and / or WBA would need to win by four or five goals; and / or Millwall need to win, or Blackburn need to win 15 - 0, or Millwall draw, but Coventry lose 5 - 0. When you look at how much stuff has to go wrong for Cov to founder, 90% looks pretty realistic. That said, they lose, us and Millwall win looks much less secure than 90%. I don't know, it's one or the other, or both, or neither.
 
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I think Coventry are a bit too high, us a little too low and Blackburn and WBA a bit too high too.

Disagree. For Coventry not to qualify, they'd need to lose. That alone is unlikely as they've lost just 1 in their last 15 matches.

Not only would they have to lose, but it would require a Millwall win (unless Coventry lose by 5 goals and Millwall draw) and a Sunderland win. West Brom could only go above Coventry if they were to overturn a 5GD difference.

This means the only realistic scenario for Coventry not to be in the Playoffs is Boro (in awful form) to win Coventry (only lost one in 15), Millwall to win Blackburn (Blackburn still have a small chance of getting a playoff spot), and us to win Preston (we'll win Preston 3-0).

If you think that it's less likely than 80% that Coventry will go up, then you can get quite good odds for it. The odds of Millwall winning, Us winning, and Coventry Losing is roughly 8/1. £90 back from a tenner.

Coventry will be in a play-off position come Tuesday morning though.
 
For Coventry not to make it, a load of results need to go against them, in addition to their losing: we would need a win; and / or WBA would need to win by four or five goals; and / or Millwall need to win, or Blackburn need to win 15 - 0, or Millwall draw, but Coventry lose 5 - 0. When you look at how much stuff has to go wrong for Cov to founder, 90% looks pretty realistic. That said, they lose, us and Millwall win looks much less secure than 90%. I don't know, it's one or the other, or both, or neither.
you can get good odds on a Sunderland / Millwall / Middlesbrough treble at the bookies (around 7/1)
to be fair a few of our side are doing that so that if worse comes to worse, it will soften the blow
 
I think the odds are a bit higher than that. My gut feeling is that we will make it, and that feeling is growing stronger after watching a potential Blackburn winning goal crash into the bar and straight down near the goal line in the final few minutes against Luton. If that thing was 1 cm lower Blackburn would have taken 3 points.
Blackburn have provided some decent late drama recently!
 
Problem is Boro can't move anywhere so Carrick could quite possibly rest half his team ready for their playoff game which will probably be against cov anyway
of course he'll rest the main players imagine the stick Uncle Tone would get if we were in their position played a full side and got a few injuries, this board would self combust
 
you can get good odds on a Sunderland / Millwall / Middlesbrough treble at the bookies (around 7/1)
to be fair a few of our side are doing that so that if worse comes to worse, it will soften the blow

Don’t get that logic mind. How can winning a few quid soften the blow of missing out on a potential return to the top flight after over 20 years?
 
Just had a look at recent (last six matches) form for Preston (H), SAFC (A), Boro (H), Cov (A), Millwall (H) and Blackburn (A)
Preston 14 points (4 Wins, 2 Draws) play SAFC 10 Points
Boro 14 points play Cov 12 points
Millwall 7 points play Blackburn 6 points
All close match ups!
 
Michael Carrick will NOT want Boro to lose 3 on the bounce......he ll want to arrest this losing run before the play offs.....he ll use this game to kick start their play offs. Therefore i see Boro win
 
Just had a look at recent (last six matches) form for Preston (H), SAFC (A), Boro (H), Cov (A), Millwall (H) and Blackburn (A)
Preston 14 points (4 Wins, 2 Draws) play SAFC 10 Points
Boro 14 points play Cov 12 points
Millwall 7 points play Blackburn 6 points
All close match ups!

Three draws then 🥴
Michael Carrick will NOT want Boro to lose 3 on the bounce......he ll want to arrest this losing run before the play offs.....he ll use this game to kick start their play offs. Therefore i see Boro win

Draw. Suits both.
 

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