Oxford vaccine

I though there was some very interesting stuff in this interview :-


Particularly this bit, hopefully correct

How do you see the virus playing out from here?
I invited a modeller on to Indie Sage who is one of the top neuroscientists in the world, a UCL professor called Karl Friston. He does modelling of brain waves. A total genius. He has come up with a totally different approach to modelling to Neil Ferguson and Adam Kucharski, who are very good epidemiologists. He thinks the herd immunity level to stop this epidemic is probably a lot lower than 60%. He thinks it’s around 25-30%. What he says is that around half your population is either sequestered or shielded, so are not exposed. Up to a half of the rest are not susceptible, like kids, because they’ve got good mucosal immunity. And others may get symptoms but not transmit it very easily. We’ve just sent a letter off to the Lancet about this. If our assumptions are right it may mean that this crisis ends earlier than we expect. But coronavirus won’t be eradicated without a vaccine.

Prevention and treatment
There are no vaccines or antiviral drugs to prevent or treat human coronavirus infections. Treatment is only supportive. A number of antivirial targets have been identified such as viral proteases, polymerases, and entry proteins. Drugs are in development which target these proteins and the different steps of viral replication. A number of vaccines using different methods are also under development for different human coronaviruses.[43]

There are no antiviral drugs to treat animal coronaviruses.[citation needed] Vaccines are available for IBV, TGEV, and Canine CoV, although their effectiveness is limited. In the case of outbreaks of highly contagious animal coronaviruses, such as PEDV, measures such as destruction of entire herds of pigs may be used to prevent transmission to other herds.[43]
 


Towns like Barrow and Gateshead, and areas of London, Birmingham, Edinburgh and Liverpool won’t be too far off 25%.

A lot is hindsight but I agree with this:-

"He thinks it’s around 25-30%. What he says is that around half your population is either sequestered or shielded, so are not exposed. Up to a half of the rest are not susceptible, like kids, because they’ve got good mucosal immunity. And others may get symptoms but not transmit it very easily. We’ve just sent a letter off to the Lancet about this. If our assumptions are right it may mean that this crisis ends earlier than we expect."

I said something similar on another thread.
 
A lot is hindsight but I agree with this:-

"He thinks it’s around 25-30%. What he says is that around half your population is either sequestered or shielded, so are not exposed. Up to a half of the rest are not susceptible, like kids, because they’ve got good mucosal immunity. And others may get symptoms but not transmit it very easily. We’ve just sent a letter off to the Lancet about this. If our assumptions are right it may mean that this crisis ends earlier than we expect."

I said something similar on another thread.
Hopefully he's right, but I think his % of people not being exposed is probably a little high. More people are being exposed by returning to work bases along with shops and services opening.
 
Which one? There's 148 being developed. I do like the idea of the molecular clamp vaccine that's about to enter stage I trials in Australia, sounds very clever.


Yes,you're right.

120 volunteers were injected today at Queensland uni for the molecular clamp vaccine.Testing expected to last for one year.

They must have been busy for animal testing down here,the animal testing was carried out in Holland.

Novovax shares are at $95 now. Ah well ,easy come easy go,I'll have a look at them once in a while.See how much I missed out on .
 
Prevention and treatment
There are no vaccines or antiviral drugs to prevent or treat human coronavirus infections. Treatment is only supportive. A number of antivirial targets have been identified such as viral proteases, polymerases, and entry proteins. Drugs are in development which target these proteins and the different steps of viral replication. A number of vaccines using different methods are also under development for different human coronaviruses.[43]

There are no antiviral drugs to treat animal coronaviruses.[citation needed] Vaccines are available for IBV, TGEV, and Canine CoV, although their effectiveness is limited. In the case of outbreaks of highly contagious animal coronaviruses, such as PEDV, measures such as destruction of entire herds of pigs may be used to prevent transmission to other herds.[43]

The second bit is not completelyly true - there is a feline condition (FIP) which is caused by a coronavirus where there is a new treatment (GS 441 and another one which I can't remember) which work by attacking the proteins on the virus, it was found by a bloke researching it in the US but uses an active ingredient in Remedesvir so they aren't keen to test it for approval in animals in case it shows negative effects and nixes the human approvals. You can use it to treat cats (and many have already used it) but need to buy it from alternative sources where it is marketed as a "food supplement" but it does work and allows treatment of a previously close to 100% fatal condition however 1 off 5 ml vial is between 50 and 150 USD to buy so it is expensive.
 
Not an update as such but the word is some results are due (likely from phase 1 trials) within the next 2-3 weeks and one of the people who worked on it (Andrew Pollard) is giving a talk on YouTube next Tuesday so I'll be watching that.

Hopefully some good news

3pm tomorrow Andrew Pollard will be giving an update on trials etc. Ill watch it see if anything positive to report.
 
Yes,you're right.

120 volunteers were injected today at Queensland uni for the molecular clamp vaccine.Testing expected to last for one year.

They must have been busy for animal testing down here,the animal testing was carried out in Holland.

Novovax shares are at $95 now. Ah well ,easy come easy go,I'll have a look at them once in a while.See how much I missed out on .
I think there was funding from the Dutch government (and Bill Gates but sssshhhh, they're watching)
Cheers
 
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3pm tomorrow Andrew Pollard will be giving an update on trials etc. Ill watch it see if anything positive to report.

Finished watching

Nothing really to report. Pretty much said everything that has already been said.

Nothing negative said apart from can't give any specific dates on when it may be ready.

Phase I data will be due soon but again no date given.

5,000 to be vaccinated in Brazil with 2,000 to be vaccinated in South Africa.

AstraZeneca starting USA trial next month and manufacturing is continuing.

It really is a case of just waiting now and see how the virus transmission plays out.

Still feeling optimistic it will come through. Personal opinion I think by Christmas they will have all the information and if that is the case by early to mid 2021 they could have this nailed at least in the UK.

Just have to be patient.
Sarah Gilbert due to speak again on Thursday night. Will try and catch that

Shes provides better information than the bloke who was on earlier

Will try and take out the main points as always
Not Oxford related

First data could be released tomorrow and sounding positive according to Robert Peston
 
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