Lifting Covid restrictions by March 'a disaster', says Sage scientis

Brian Griffin said:
Same here - I've been bang on since last March.

And that's not what I'm saying at all.

I'm saying you shouldn't mingle until you're told it's safe to.
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The government said it was safe to mingle in households for 5 days over Christmas before changing their minds, Johnson said on live TV schools would stay open and are safe only to change his mind 24 hours later.
 


Brian Griffin said:
can't get my head around the fact you don't think they'll go straight back up again if we lift restrictions earlier than when most adults have been vaccinated.
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There has to be a point where you look at hospitalisations and deaths figures and accept that life now goes back to before. I'm not going to put a number on that. I suppose everyone will have a different figure in mind. One thing is for certain though, when the restrictions start being lifted we need to stop looking at case numbers and start focusing on hospitalisations and deaths.

By the way, anyone have the latest figures on the % of people currently in hospital with covid who are under 60?
 
Frijj said:
It's a very tricky path for them to walk. Hopefully by the time they're meeting to make these decisions we're in a situation where everyone over 70 has been vaccinated, which will make their jobs a lot easier.
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f***ing hell lad I hope they aren't waiting till then before sitting down to make decisions. They should be sitting down now, and spending the next 4 weeks brainstorming and planning, speaking to experts, running through scenarios, weighing up risk v reward, monitoring the numbers, making contingencies, looking back over the plans, scrutinising them, tidying them up, making them clear and effective as possible... And only then communicating them to the public . That type of shit takes a lot of time. They have time now. They won't have time if they only start thinking about it in mid February
 
Jap Stammer said:
If they do, surely that would suggest the vaccines don't work as intended or expected.
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At 73% efficiacy or whatever it is initially, we'll still see infections, hospitalisations and deaths for sometime.

Hospitals will be full for at least a month after all the over 70s are done.

This might be the last lap, but it's not the final sprint, IMO.
 
Brian Griffin said:
At 73% efficiacy or whatever it is initially, we'll still see infections, hospitalisations and deaths for sometime.

Hospitals will be full for at least a month after all the over 70s are done.

This might be the last lap, but it's not the final sprint, IMO.
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Way higher efficiency than any flu jab has ever been though?
 
redandwhiterob said:
Given the vaccine isn't 100% effective when will it be 'safe' to do so?
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When all over 70s and vulnerable have had both vaccinations

And probably a month after 80% of all adults have had their second vaccination.

Easter will be the risk v reward loosening scenario....Autumn will be the 'it's very safe for most people' scenario.

In my opinion.
 
Brian Griffin said:
At 73% efficiacy or whatever it is initially, we'll still see infections, hospitalisations and deaths for sometime.
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I agree.

I also expect we'll still see them for years.

But there has to come a point where the numbers are deemed as 'acceptable' or 'within expected and/or normal parameters', and at that point society has to restart.
 
Billericay Dichio said:
So you haven't actually been 100% bang on then? The other nine months don't count?
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The rules from August to October were very ambiguous, I'd be amazed if anyone even knows if they have been 100% bang on. Especially those who are out working all day every day

I've certainly never been down to stand in a. Fish n chip shop queue at the beach with 100 other people, even though that is still technically within the rules.
 
Brian Griffin said:
When all over 70s and vulnerable have had both vaccinations

And probably a month after 80% of all adults have had their second vaccination.

Easter will be the risk v reward loosening scenario....Autumn will be the 'it's very safe for most people' scenario.

In my opinion.
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From day one on this you've been chief doom monger tbf and dont take peoples own personal situations into any equations.
 
Brian Griffin said:
At 73% efficiacy or whatever it is initially, we'll still see infections, hospitalisations and deaths for sometime.

Hospitals will be full for at least a month after all the over 70s are done.

This might be the last lap, but it's not the final sprint, IMO.
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I think we'll see a massive fall off in hospitalisation by the end of this month. Scruffy Maths at work here and please correct my figures but upwards of 80% of people in hospital now with covid belong to the groups who are currently or have already been vaccinated. Bare in mind we have already vaccinated about 7% of the adult population. That means a huge number catching the virus between now and then should be protected.
 
redandwhiterob said:
From day one on this you've been chief doom monger tbf and dont take peoples own personal situations into any equations.
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I haven't like.

I've been pretty much bang on.

I didn't think kids would back to school in September - I was wrong. But hey, then it all got closed down again.

There are no personal situations in reality that outweigh the greater good - ie keeping as many people safe as possible.

Support bubbles for single people should have been the biggest concession we made - and loads took the mick.
 
Brian Griffin said:
I repeat - Global Health Pandemic - 2m dead, 5% from UK and you're moaning about restriction of liberty?

Lost anybody in this?
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Forgive me for being frustrated that everything I enjoyed in life has been taken away from me and I haven’t seen members of my family for 10 months.
 
Brian Griffin said:
I haven't like.

I've been pretty much bang on.

I didn't think kids would back to school in September - I was wrong. But hey, then it all got closed down again.

There are no personal situations in reality that outweigh the greater good - ie keeping as many people safe as possible.

Support bubbles for single people should have been the biggest concession we made - and loads took the mick.
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There are millions of people out there all with different personal situations. To lump them all in together shows you have no empathy or understanding of a lot of family situations. Its simply not a question of black or white, its way more complex than that. Thousands if not millions sre struggling to get through day to day, never mind week to week or month to month. If these people tske all necessary precautions for a bit outside socialising to get them through a day or week than thats fair enough imo
 
redandwhiterob said:
There are millions of people out there all with different personal situations. To lump them all in together shows you have no empathy or understanding of a lot of family situations. Its simply not a question of black or white, its way more complex than that. Thousands if not millions sre struggling to get through day to day, never mind week to week or month to month. If these people tske all necessary precautions for a bit outside socialising to get them through a day or week than thats fair enough imo
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Some people in their 20’s are dying of cancer that was deemed treatable 9 months ago, to give the most awful example.
 

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