If there wasn't a vaccine, what do you think would happen this year?

Qwerty

Qwerty

Striker
What are people's theories of what this year would be like without a vaccine. Lockdowns, restrictions etc.
No slanging matches please.
 


If we had no vaccine then it would just be like last year, with us basically living a bit from May till start of September then locked up for winter. Then released and locked up and repeat and repeat by Government, Sage, the opposition and the Covid virtue signallers. Until a party came along to break the cycle with the public having had enough.
 
If no vaccine available a long term herd immunity was the only answer.
No way could the country continue to loss so much money and jobs, it had to end.
A long journey allowing all business to run with social distancing and hygiene the only tool.
But how that would run alongside other countries and if holidays was possible is another unknown.
 
Although restrictions would be in place they probably wouldn't have been harsh as what they are know. Reckon they would have ploughed on with schools even if just primary and possibly kept gyms open
 
Frijj said:
Eventually lockdown fatigue would set in, but in the absence of a vaccine, we would have to move beyond COVID eventually.

Such a hypothetical world would have a far greater death toll and would be for many, a stressful and miserable experience for the longer term.
Click to expand...
Aye, it would be bleak. Possibly years till herd immunity made any difference.
mackemquaker said:
If we had no vaccine then it would just be like last year, with us basically living a bit from May till start of September then locked up for winter. Then released and locked up and repeat and repeat by Government, Sage, the opposition and the Covid virtue signallers. Until a party came along to break the cycle with the public having had enough.
Click to expand...
Think it might have been crack on, there's not any money to support you, take your chance out there.
 
Last edited:
Qwerty said:
Aye, it would be bleak. Possibly years till herd immunity made any difference.

Think it might have been crack on, there's not any money to support you, take your chance out there.
Click to expand...
But way way way down the line
 
Nothing would change, advice from the government on public behaviour and for the vulnetable but nothing would differ casualties wise. Let that sink in.
 
SAFCOldie said:
Nothing would change, advice from the government on public behaviour and for the vulnetable but nothing would differ casualties wise. Let that sink in.
Click to expand...
You've posted some nonsense on this topic, but even for you that is ridiculous.

There is already data to suggest that is a clearly a complete load of bollocks.
 
Qwerty said:
What are people's theories of what this year would be like without a vaccine. Lockdowns, restrictions etc.
No slanging matches please.
Click to expand...

restrictions not much different until September , then a ramp up in Q4

biggest difference the number of fatalities
 
North Yorks Mackem said:
You've posted some nonsense on this topic, but even for you that is ridiculous.

There is already data to suggest that is a clearly a complete load of bollocks.
Click to expand...

Nope, I've done the calculations based on the model and it will end up pretty much the same by the next winter if you follow that modelling. The model said , based on R2 that 500k would die (upto end winter 2021/22) if nothing changed, but if we took the steps we took it would be under 30k according to the model 🤷‍♂️ Now you might say that means the model suggests its under estimated, but we were never at R2. Adjust his model backdown to R1 factoring in human behaviour and you find the optimum casualties for no restrictions would be 160k (by 2021/22 winter end), which is what I would expect with the restrictions in place. Of course we have the control groups of places like Stockholm and Malmo, I can't be doing with anymore analysis suffice to say I know in my heart nothing much would change, due to common sense behaviour.
 
SAFCOldie said:
Nope, I've done the calculations based on the model and it will end up pretty much the same by the next winter if you follow that modelling. The model said , based on R2 that 500k would die (upto end winter 2021/22) if nothing changed, but if we took the steps we took it would be under 30k according to the model 🤷‍♂️ Now you might say that means the model suggests its under estimated, but we were never at R2. Adjust his model backdown to R1 factoring in human behaviour and you find the optimum casualties for no restrictions would be 160k (by 2021/22 winter end), which is what I would expect with the restrictions in place. Of course we have the control groups of places like Stockholm and Malmo, I can't be doing with anymore analysis suffice to say I know in my heart nothing much would change, due to common sense behaviour.
Click to expand...
With all due respect you need to get a new calculator mate.
 
SAFCOldie said:
😊😊 it has been a few months since that analysis but vaccines, mutations and nonsense permitting I think those calculations are about right.
Click to expand...
If there were no vaccines and we returned to normal there would be significantly more deaths than an additional 30,000.

It is beyond dispute (as much as you seemingly try) that vaccines reduce the possibility of picking up severe illness from covid. It is now beyond dispute that they cut transmission. Therefore, the vaccines will have a significant impact on reducing deaths.

If you're arguing against that now, you are arguing against proven facts, but most likely just on a big wind up..
 

Back
Top