Better GD than Cov in 2nd...



People on here don’t agree I know but if we want to win the division we need 6 points this week. Two six pointers. It could feasibly give is a three point lead on Cov which would require them to win their game in hand which isn’t always that easy with pressure as we know. Plus it adds a lot of pressure onto The other 4 around us.
 
If you look at the probabilities columns, they have us as more probable to be promoted than Coventry, but that we're also more likely to end up in the play offs than them.
 
Coventry are 2nd because it is sorted by probability to win the league.
Or let me rephrase that. They are not 2nd, as there are no final numbers mentioned at all.
 
bernardbresslaw said:
I don't know what you mean? They're predicting that both of us end up on 80 points and also we will have the better GD, but they put us finishing behind them.
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I know, so what I'm suggesting is the way they've done their calculations might take points per game (or something similar) into consideration, where teams don't always finish on a whole number. They might conclude that Coventry will finish on 80.4 points, and we'll finish on 80.2. They're slightly ahead of us, but both points tallies round to 80.

Or they could have just made a mistake.
Vicham said:
Coventry are 2nd because it is sorted by probability to win the league.
Or let me rephrase that. They are not 2nd, as there are no final numbers mentioned at all.
Click to expand...

Or this.
 
bernardbresslaw said:
I don't know what you mean? They're predicting that both of us end up on 80 points and also we will have the better GD, but they put us finishing behind them.
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Predictions and analytics etc don't always work with solid numbers so if they are saying Coventry will gain 2.46 points per game and us 2.48, it could mean that Coventry has 80.4 and us 80.2 and just not bothered to iron out the irregularities.
 
They reckon Coventry has a 24% chance of winning the league whilst we have only a 22% chance, but they also reckon we have a 21% chance of finishing second to Coventry's 19% chance, so we both have a 43% chance of automatic promotion.

The others are: Rotherham 59%, Peterborough 18%, Portsmouth 12%, Fleetwood 8%, and Oxford 10%, Wycombe 4%, and the rest 2% or less. So Oxford are more likely to pip us than Fleetwood?

PS Our SPI "Soccer Power Index" is better than Coventry's, as are both our offensive [sic] and defensive figures. In fact, our SPI and defense are the best in the league according to that table.
 
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