An analytical assessment of league one this season


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Well actually it's all based on statistical probability, we can't prove the model wrong with one season's results for one team.
If he wants to believe that it's like the Red Dwarf episode (Quarantine) and that all the SAFC players have simply ingested the luck virus...
 
For those who are interested, some interesting stats via Mark O'Haire's Twitter.

Sunderland are currently 16th on the expected goals measure, which has been discussed to death here, but are 6th when you only look at expected goals from open play. While the first measure predicts that Sunderland should concede more than they score, the open play measure suggests the opposite. The only other team who have a similar discrepancy between figures are Walsall, who have also overperforming their stats. While Sunderland are 10th for expected goals scored in general, they're 4th for expected goals from open play.

Ignoring the expected goals measure, Sunderland are 17th in the league for shots in the box compared to their opponents. on average, Sunderland take 7.12 shots in the box (3 less than Barnsley) while their opponents average 8.31 (3 more than Barnsley's opponents). The only teams to take less shots in the box this season are Oxford, Fleetwood, Peterborough and Bradford. Interesting that two of the top three are in the bottom 5 for shots taken in the box.

More surprisingly, for me at least, is that they are 21st in the league for touches in the box compared to their opponents, and that includes having the joint second lowest touches in the box (29.4, higher than only Fleetwood). On average, Sunderland's opponents have 7.1 more touches in the box compared to them, while Barnsley have 9.5 more touches in the box than their opponents.

I'm not an analyst of this, but it suggests a few things to me:

1) Sunderland and Peterborough are very clinical, taking less chances to score than most other teams. Both teams have better attackers than the rest of the league, so obviously quality is a factor in this.

2) Sunderland are more reliant on scoring from open play than other teams in the league.

3) Sunderland are letting opponents have more touches and shots in the box than other top teams, but those teams aren't taking advantage of this. This suggests good goalkeeping or luck and either poor defending or a defense that's happy for teams to have the ball in the box so long as they aren't threatening.

Mark O'Haire on Twitter
BTW I know, I know. We’re nearly top of the league etc. However these stats are telling us that we’ve got plenty to work on. And it’s not like the stats are telling us anything our eyes aren’t, either.
 
FYI the OP is gonna have another go at winning this argument. He’s asked statsbomb to do some analysis/vis on us:lol:
I'd be legit interested in their analysis. All of the stats contradict themselves, it seems. Low expected goals, but actually great goal difference. That suggests better offensive and defensive players, but that contradicts the touches and shots in box data, as better players should also create and prevent chances in the box. As a semi-neutral, I'm interested in what we can learn from it.
 
I'd be legit interested in their analysis. All of the stats contradict themselves, it seems. Low expected goals, but actually great goal difference. That suggests better offensive and defensive players, but that contradicts the touches and shots in box data, as better players should also create and prevent chances in the box. As a semi-neutral, I'm interested in what we can learn from it.
I agree completely. I’m a big fan of statsbomb. Just found it funny that a Luton fan was still salty about the argument a week later that he would ask for data on us rather than on his own team.
 
Imagine how Arsenal fans must have felt when they saw stats that said they couldn’t go a season unbeaten.

I’m equally if not more depressed by this. Might not be able to enjoy myself ever again tbh.
 
I’m sure this will be dismissed out of hand again, but some may find it interesting regarding how sustainable our results are:

Ted Knutson on Twitter
I’d agree with what he’s implying.
Most matches I’ve not actually thought we have been loads better than who we have played, it’s just that our keeper is tremendous, and we have 3/4 players (McGeady , gooch , maguire / Maja ) who have a bit of class for this league.

Plymouth probably had the same quality chances as us last Saturday , and with camp / Steele in goal , we would definitely have conceded.

That’s why we will win the league though, too good a keeper, and players who can create a bit of magic and score.
 
I’d agree with what he’s implying.
Most matches I’ve not actually thought we have been loads better than who we have played, it’s just that our keeper is tremendous, and we have 3/4 players (McGeady , gooch , maguire / Maja ) who have a bit of class for this league.

Plymouth probably had the same quality chances as us last Saturday , and with camp / Steele in goal , we would definitely have conceded.

That’s why we will win the league though, too good a keeper, and players who can create a bit of magic and score.
I think we have quality all over the pitch for this league, and we are just starting to click, which is brilliant as the players didnt even know each other at the seasons start.
 
First question - 'Is it just simply because sunderland have better finishers?'

Blokes reply - 'It's not as simple as you have better finishers than any team in the world, so probably not'

Once again, forgetting that the 'best finishers in the world' play against the best keepers in the world, and the best defences wont allow them onto their correct foot etc. in dangerous positions (another thing XG doesn't account for, as far as I know).

Perhaps, and I have no way to prove this, the differential between our strikers finishing ability and the average ability of the opponents keeper is something that hasn't been seen in a league setting on more than a handful of occassions. And basically, its ruining any value the XG stat has in this situation.
 
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