People seem to have forgotton that, despite being a shambles at limited overs cricket, we still have a solid test team - not perfect and not the most exciting to watch at times but solid. It was only a couple of years ago that we swatted away the mighty Australia and New Zealand at home (drew in New Zealand as well, which was seen as a disappointment at the time). The only real shitters we've had recently at Test level, off the top of my head, were Sri Lanka at home (which was only a 2 test series IIRC) and obviously the latest Ashes debacle.
Our batting line-up is a good opener away from being very good (Ballance and Root in particular are really looking the part), I rate Buttler and I've even seen signs that Cook is starting to get back to some sort of form. Our bowling is the problem - Anderson is quality but Broad is declining rapidly, I'm not 100% sold on Moeen yet tbh and we're desperately lacking other options - the likes of Jordan and Stokes are decent but nothing more. It's a shame Tremlett got injured and Finn lost the plot, a couple of beasts who can consistently bang them in at 90mph is what we're desperately lacking. However, perhaps in home conditions we can get away with it with swing coming into play.
I reckon we'll beat New Zealand and the series against Australia will be closer than people think, perhaps even a draw.