25th January Stats

Mackem DJ said:
that has been said on numerous occasions.


I really dont know. Doubtful. I’d have probably copied the measures implemented by Scotland & Wales tbh but no worse. It’s obvious we can’t & won’t go back to lockdowns.
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Do you think copying wales and Scotland would have stopped people most of these people from dying?

What’s your actual point? You didn’t want a lockdown but you are having a pop at people for doing what exactly? Living their lives?

Strange.
 


Andy_Roker1983 said:
Do you think copying wales and Scotland would have stopped people most of these people from dying?

What’s your actual point? You didn’t want a lockdown but you are having a pop at people for doing what exactly? Living their lives?

Strange.
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Every day he tells the forum I'm Oldie...you can use that as a guide to his sanity :D
 
Harry Angstrom said:
It is obvious why but he won’t acknowledge the reason.
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I’m not sure it is obvious, although a part of it is, obviously! Incidental covid infections will be playing a part, a couple of weeks ago something like 8% of the population had a positive covid test within 28 days so that will inflate the covid deaths figure but I have no idea what total deaths from all causes were within that period. There could be other factors tho such as covid infecting people who wouldn’t be put on ventilation. I think it’s something that should be looked into and not just dismissed (from either side of the argument).
 
DoctorMick said:
I’m not sure it is obvious, although a part of it is, obviously! Incidental covid infections will be playing a part, a couple of weeks ago something like 8% of the population had a positive covid test within 28 days so that will inflate the covid deaths figure but I have no idea what total deaths from all causes were within that period. There could be other factors tho such as covid infecting people who wouldn’t be put on ventilation. I think it’s something that should be looked into and not just dismissed (from either side of the argument).
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There is a tiny chance that omicron causes a few people to die without any intervention but the numbers stack up for dying with not of covid. There are no excess deaths in January 2022 so far. In fact thousands less than normal are dying. probably because the flu has not taken hold because we are being careful.

estimated number of positive tests for week ended 15 January was nearly 3million. 5% of population. So assuming 28 days then 12 million people will have tested positive.

That is a huge number. the amount of deaths with covid is around 10%. The figures seem to indicate that most are dying with covid and that would be backed up by the ventilator numbers.


I'm hope I'm not wrong but if I am I am happy to say I was.
 
Harry Angstrom said:
There is a tiny chance that omicron causes a few people to die without any intervention but the numbers stack up for dying with not of covid. There are no excess deaths in January 2022 so far. In fact thousands less than normal are dying. probably because the flu has not taken hold because we are being careful.

estimated number of positive tests for week ended 15 January was nearly 3million. 5% of population. So assuming 28 days then 12 million people will have tested positive.

That is a huge number. the amount of deaths with covid is around 10%. The figures seem to indicate that most are dying with covid and that would be backed up by the ventilator numbers.


I'm hope I'm not wrong but if I am I am happy to say I was.
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What % of the 20% of the population who have tested positive would be expected to die within 28 days as well.

A hell of a lot of deaths are 'incidental' to COVID.
 
Brian Griffin said:
A hell of a lot of deaths are 'incidental' to COVID.
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What do you mean by a hell of a lot?

What about death certificates with Covid on them? The ones assessed by a doctor and deemed to be covid related, rather than an arbitrarily going from 28 days after a test.

Those numbers are 22,500 higher than than those within 28 days of a positive test.

There will be incidental deaths in the 28 day number but the impact of Covid is more than the 28 day figure suggests, not less.
 
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rudd said:
What do you mean by a hell of a lot?

What about death certificates with Covid on them? The ones assessed by a doctor and deemed to be covid related, rather than an arbitrarily going from 28 days after a test.

Those numbers are 22,500 higher than than those within 28 days of a positive test.

There will be incidental deaths in the 28 day number but the impact of Covid is more than the 28 day figure suggests, not less.
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I think the problem is its just not clear cut and with the raw data its really hard to understand for the lay-person, I dont fully understand it at all and have had to rely on experts helping me out, by explaining things in a format I can understand better, but that stills leaves room to interpret things differently depending on your view point.

I keep thinking its a lot like the AIDS issue early days, people weren't dying FROM aids but other issues, but without AIDS these people wouldn't have died.

I think atm we have a kind of same thing happening, the weak and high risk with problems just cant cope with the added stress of covid and the body gives in, just like what happens with flu, I think we have a very small number of deaths counted "with" which is confusing the issue more.

in my lay-mans view the first waves hit the weak very hard, hate to put it this way but the easy to kill, then the virus changed to delta and we saw more fit and healthy people dying to covid and now its changed again to a less likely to kill a person without issues, but it still can if your unlucky and if your high risk, its gone endemic.

Vaccines , Lockdowns and a touch of luck has saved millions of lives world wide, but we can never save everyone and some winters i guess the deaths from covid will be very high, its the nature of the beast now.
 
chrismisterx said:
I think the problem is its just not clear cut and with the raw data its really hard to understand for the lay-person, I dont fully understand it at all and have had to rely on experts helping me out, by explaining things in a format I can understand better, but that stills leaves room to interpret things differently depending on your view point.

I keep thinking its a lot like the AIDS issue early days, people weren't dying FROM aids but other issues, but without AIDS these people wouldn't have died.

I think atm we have a kind of same thing happening, the weak and high risk with problems just cant cope with the added stress of covid and the body gives in, just like what happens with flu, I think we have a very small number of deaths counted "with" which is confusing the issue more.

in my lay-mans view the first waves hit the weak very hard, hate to put it this way but the easy to kill, then the virus changed to delta and we saw more fit and healthy people dying to covid and now its changed again to a less likely to kill a person without issues, but it still can if your unlucky and if your high risk, its gone endemic.

Vaccines , Lockdowns and a touch of luck has saved millions of lives world wide, but we can never save everyone and some winters i guess the deaths from covid will be very high, its the nature of the beast now.
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Can't say I disagree with any of that other than the endemic bit. I don't think we can say we're quite there yet but it is somewhat subjective.

David Oliver writes a weekly piece in the BMJ and he did an article about the reporting of deaths early last year which was quite brief but puts the picture across well.

www.bmj.com

David Oliver: Mistruths and misunderstandings about covid-19 death numbers

I want to set the record straight about some serious misinformation surrounding covid-19 death certification and mortality statistics. I will paraphrase some of the claims that I have heard repeatedly in the media: “People are not dying from, but with, covid-19.” “Deaths classified as from...
www.bmj.com www.bmj.com
 
chrismisterx said:
I think the problem is its just not clear cut and with the raw data its really hard to understand for the lay-person, I dont fully understand it at all and have had to rely on experts helping me out, by explaining things in a format I can understand better, but that stills leaves room to interpret things differently depending on your view point.

I keep thinking its a lot like the AIDS issue early days, people weren't dying FROM aids but other issues, but without AIDS these people wouldn't have died.

I think atm we have a kind of same thing happening, the weak and high risk with problems just cant cope with the added stress of covid and the body gives in, just like what happens with flu, I think we have a very small number of deaths counted "with" which is confusing the issue more.

in my lay-mans view the first waves hit the weak very hard, hate to put it this way but the easy to kill, then the virus changed to delta and we saw more fit and healthy people dying to covid and now its changed again to a less likely to kill a person without issues, but it still can if your unlucky and if your high risk, its gone endemic.

Vaccines , Lockdowns and a touch of luck has saved millions of lives world wide, but we can never save everyone and some winters i guess the deaths from covid will be very high, its the nature of the beast now.
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Covd has been scaringly logical, almost a cull as in survival of the fittest. Nature is super smart and will always make the neccersary adjustments, so maybe it's about time we started showing it some respect.
 
Think I read today that 2/3 of omicron cases are re infections from previous strains. Pretty sure the daily case numbers from the gov do not include re infections so actual daily cases could conceivably been / are way higher in the uk ? ( might have mis read though )
 

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