25th January Stats



I wonder how many will die worldwide from the effects of lockdowns...the cancer deaths predictions alone are a bit scary.
 
It doing a comparison, within a small time period, those particular 4 weeks are likely the best to sample IMO.
Great footy song you wrote Oldie, but how the hell did you load it up to my youtube channel, and why does your missus look exactly like mine.

ps. Mackem DJ might know :D
 
It doing a comparison, within a small time period, those particular 4 weeks are likely the best to sample IMO.
Why?
You've previously said you're concerned about the effects of lockdown. Surely then it'd make more sense to look at all year mortality rather than January with the increased prevalence of respiratory illnesses?
Not to mention the vastly different situations with Covid, the prevalent strains and the massive differing immunity to flu and Covid?

What have you inferred from looking at the few weeks data?
 
Why?
You've previously said you're concerned about the effects of lockdown. Surely then it'd make more sense to look at all year mortality rather than January with the increased prevalence of respiratory illnesses?
Not to mention the vastly different situations with Covid, the prevalent strains and the massive differing immunity to flu and Covid?

What have you inferred from looking at the few weeks data?
We don't have a full year's data though so this is a reasonable sample to get an inkling of the lay of the land?
 
We don't have a full year's data though so this is a reasonable sample to get an inkling of the lay of the land?
There's weekly data readily available to the public going back to 8 Jan 2010. Why not go back further or does something magical happen when the year changes?

What have you learned about the lay of the land then?

There's only 2 weeks of provisional data from this year that's available to the public anyway, so God knows how you analysed 4 weeks.
 
There's weekly data readily available to the public going back to 8 Jan 2010. Why not go back further or does something magical happen when the year changes?

What have you learned about the lay of the land then?

There's only 2 weeks of provisional data from this year that's available to the public anyway, so God knows how you analysed 4 weeks.
I didn't analyse anything just commented. Personally I always take the entire winter period, which of course spans over two different years, in this instance I'd take out 20/21 and compare Nov 21 - Jan 22 against the remaining previous years. I don't really need to do any analysis as the consistent hospital/ICU figures speak for themselves to show the lay of the land at this point in time.
 
Probably because 2020 was the deadliest year in the UK since 1918 with over 695k deaths and an excess of 75,000.
2021 had an excess of 55k. You can only die once.

If it's measured on a five year average then they'll be hugely influenced by the appalling numbers from last year where the early weeks of the year we were averaging a weekly excess of over 5000 deaths.
Then there's the massive increase in immunity too.
I read something about how the 5 year avg isn't going to include the death rate of covid or something, and some kind of stat magic is going to take place so that moving forward the 5 year avg isn't all to buggery for the next few years.

We also had 52k excess winter deaths in 2017-18 iirc, so not sure what I read but did read something has to be taken into account to keep the stats worth while with covid.

Hand on heart no idea how this is going to be done and I may have misunderstand it, but I understand how last years numbers really does mess things up.
 
I read something about how the 5 year avg isn't going to include the death rate of covid or something, and some kind of stat magic is going to take place so that moving forward the 5 year avg isn't all to buggery for the next few years.

We also had 52k excess winter deaths in 2017-18 iirc, so not sure what I read but did read something has to be taken into account to keep the stats worth while with covid.

Hand on heart no idea how this is going to be done and I may have misunderstand it, but I understand how last years numbers really does mess things up.
That seems reasonable.
I did notice when I was looking at the weekly 2021 figures that there was a row of average weekly deaths for 2015-19 and then 2020 was all on it's own.

Makes sense now!
 
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