15th September Stats

[Jap Stammer]

The vaccines should save us but lots of evidence, even new stuff coming out of Israel today, showing their effectiveness is wearing off massively after 6 months. Which unfortunately impacts our most vulnerable as they were jabbed first. Need to get the boosters out.

Could that have something to do with them administering the second doses after three weeks?

The much-maligned eight week strategy used here might mean we don't get that same level of drop-off.

 

[DEfromBC]

Sage says they could.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said its modelling suggested hospitalisations could reach 2,000 to 7,000 per day next month.

I really love the government advisors, they’re a really special bunch.

They obviously don't know as much as us on the message board. I am surprised that they don't just take their modelling numbers off here as we have so many experts

How come testing has taken a hit this week?

Hopefully because less people are feeling ill if the transmissions are reducing

 

[joemcdokes]

They obviously don't know as much as us on the message board. I am surprised that they don't just take their modelling numbers off here as we have so many experts

Hopefully because less people are feeling ill if the transmissions are reducing

It's the range, I reckon anyone on here could come up with those figures.

 

[42]

A few charts on waning of vaccine efficiency

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[DaveH]

A few charts on waning of vaccine efficiency

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Any idea how that relates to the delta variant, or is that the dominant one now? A lad at work claims vaccines are largely ineffective against delta, though most people claim he is full of shit about most things.

 

[42]

Any idea how that relates to the delta variant, or is that the dominant one now? A lad at work claims vaccines are largely ineffective against delta, though most people claim he is full of shit about most things.

Delta is pretty much the main one now making up about 90% of cases, so I'm guessing those charts relate to the delta varient.

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[joemcdokes]

So actually your suggesting their modelling last time was too positive where as now your claiming they are being too pessimistic?

Directionally they were right last time

No I'm saying they were off the mark last time as they advised on keeping the schools open thinking it was just the pubs and restaurants that would be enough to keep things in control.
How wrong they were.

 

[Locke's SAFC]

The number of people losing their lives is going to increase over the next few weeks in terms of the 7 day average simply because the proportion of those being admitted into hospital has been more weighted towards those most susceptible.

But, that hospital admissions number is something to be positive about, even if it is only 1 day. No doubt about it. There have been peaks and troughs within a wave and so it isn't necessarily the sign of a trend, but going down on one day is better than it going up.

 

[Gazoliver]

7k would be 3k more than at the height of the previous peak!

Presumably it's Reasonable Worst Case Scenario

 

[Locke's SAFC]

Sage says they could.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said its modelling suggested hospitalisations could reach 2,000 to 7,000 per day next month.

I really love the government advisors, they’re a really special bunch.

I think at this point all of the information is telling us not to bank on anything.

 

[joemcdokes]

Presumably it's Reasonable Worst Case Scenario

Anyone can do that, Chris Whitty has stood up on the podium answering questions along side Boris then said completely different things later in the media.

All they have done is covered their backs throughout this and for me have not came across very well at all.

I think at this point all of the information is telling us not to bank on anything.

As it has throughout.

 

[MonkeyLove]

Could that have something to do with them administering the second doses after three weeks?

The much-maligned eight week strategy used here might mean we don't get that same level of drop-off.

US as well according to this that Pfizer released today.

They are presenting to the FDA in the US on Friday but have pre released that their studies outside Israel also show its waning.

Not a surprise really almost all vaccines wane hence boosters are common

Pfizer Says Booster Shots of Vaccine Restore Waning Immunity

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Locke's SAFC]

As it has throughout.

I wouldn't say so. This time last year it was obvious what was coming. At this point, the vaccines may save us but I wouldn't bet a lot of money on it.

 

[joemcdokes]

I wouldn't say so. This time last year it was obvious what was coming. At this point, the vaccines may save us but I wouldn't bet a lot of money on it.

You could see 1600 deaths a day in January?

Maybes you should be a modeller.
This time last year the average weekly deaths were less than 20.

 

[Locke's SAFC]

You could see 1600 deaths a day in January?

Maybes you should be a modeller.
This time last year the average weekly deaths were less than 20.

You could see it getting out of a hand and a lockdown. The threads are still there from last year for you to look at. I started one.

 

[joemcdokes]

You could see it getting out of a hand and a lockdown. The threads are still there from last year for you to look at. I started one.

You’re far more obsessed than I thought, link the thread it’ll take me ages to find the one you want me to.

 

[DaveH]

Delta is pretty much the main one now making up about 90% of cases, so I'm guessing those charts relate to the delta varient.

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Cheers. That is what I did say at work. Delta variant most common, deaths and hospital cases massively down according to infections. But apparently this means it is not really effective. I thought I'd leave the office at that point!

 

[Locke's SAFC]

You’re far more obsessed than I thought, link the thread it’ll take me ages to find the one you want me to.

I really don't want you to find it. It's more that you're another one making blanket statements with nothing to back them up. 'Seems to be a feature of this board. 'Just carry on, Joe, in your own blinkered world.

 

[joemcdokes]

I really don't want you to find it. It's more that you're another one making blanket statements with nothing to back them up. 'Seems to be a feature of this board. 'Just carry on, Joe, in your own blinkered world.

Blinkered?
I have everything I need to look at regarding cases, deaths, vaccinations and hospitalisations.

I can tell you anything you need to know but what are the blanket statements?

Seems like you’ve spat your dummy out to me.

 

[DoctorMick]

The number of people losing their lives is going to increase over the next few weeks in terms of the 7 day average simply because the proportion of those being admitted into hospital has been more weighted towards those most susceptible.

But, that hospital admissions number is something to be positive about, even if it is only 1 day. No doubt about it. There have been peaks and troughs within a wave and so it isn't necessarily the sign of a trend, but going down on one day is better than it going up.