15th June Stats

billyboy said:
Doesn’t that tend to be the case with viruses? The more transmissible it becomes results in milder symptoms. Been reported today the most common symptoms now are runny nose and sneezing with very few patients with respiratory problems!
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snarlz II said:
Sir Simon Stevens just said two doses of vaccines against the Indian variant give better results than against the Kent variant, this has got to be good news. Wonder if this virus is becoming less deadly as it becomes more transmissible.
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I hope so but It looked pretty deadly when it was rampaging through India.
 


Sunderland hospital figures have been fine for a while now , hoping the slight rise of cases doesn’t change this
 
tunstallhill said:
what numbers are you looking at? the last 7 days have seen pretty much level number of cases. no rise, no fall overall.

you are talking a very small rise in hospitalisations, that will level off in the next week if it follows the trend of lagging behind case numbers.

and death numbers have been averaging 8 per day for the past 3 weeks, without any real rising or falling.

what would cause the case numbers to start rising all of a sudden? we've had the 3rd wave. its topped out clearly
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You know best
 
garyswc said:
Average deaths 9 up from 7 two weeks ago, be back up to 1,800 a day soon then.....
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We have average deaths of 9 a day, go back to May date pubs reopened nearly a month ago was 2000 cases so 7000 now will that mean in 3 weeks the average (in proportion) is about 27.
 
tunstallhill said:
if tomorrows is 7540 or less, then it will have halted the rise. that trend is generally on a downward trajectory over the last few days, so no reason it wont be. and even if it just totters along around 7500 for the next few days, the average will stop going up.
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I admire your optimism but cases have only levelled off and turned downwards 3 times long term during this pandemic, lockdown 1, 2 and 3. There are the odd minor bumps here and there for a few days, but I can’t see any reason why cases should suddenly turn. Looking at the trend, cases will be around 8.2k by Friday or Saturday. Obviously I hope I’m wrong.
 
Of course the cases are going up. And unfortunately hospitalisations and deaths will do. This virus will get round those who have and have not had the jab, but the impacts have been severely reduced.

Keep getting people jabbed. Cases will level off.
 
DaveH said:
I admire your optimism but cases have only levelled off and turned downwards 3 times long term during this pandemic, lockdown 1, 2 and 3. There are the odd minor bumps here and there for a few days, but I can’t see any reason why cases should suddenly turn. Looking at the trend, cases will be around 8.2k by Friday or Saturday. Obviously I hope I’m wrong.
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aye and they also rarely rise, then level off, then start to rise again without some outside influence. restrictions and general living hasn't really changed over the past 5 weeks, so why would the cases suddenly start going up again? what would cause that?

the rise last week was totally expected as it was a result of the previous easing of restrictions a couple of weeks earlier. we are over that now. why do you think it will rise again?

how can the trend be at 8.2k by this friday, when it topped out at 8125 last friday and has been lower ever since?

am i missing something?
 
tunstallhill said:
aye and they also rarely rise, then level off, then start to rise again without some outside influence. restrictions and general living hasn't really changed over the past 5 weeks, so why would the cases suddenly start going up again? what would cause that?

the rise last week was totally expected as it was a result of the previous easing of restrictions a couple of weeks earlier. we are over that now. why do you think it will rise again?

how can the trend be at 8.2k by this friday, when it topped out at 8125 last friday and has been lower ever since?

am i missing something?
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Cases are rising because of increased mixing and a new variant. The more people who have this, the more it spreads.

What is your prediction for Friday or Saturday?
 
DaveH said:
Cases are rising because of increased mixing and a new variant. The more people who have this, the more it spreads.

What is your prediction for Friday or Saturday?
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well, unless that has been some major change in behaviour all of a sudden, or a series of massive super spreading events, i would predict the numbers for the next few days based on the trend of the previous 7, or 14 or whatever, so:

(previous 7 days) 7540, 7393, 8125, 7738, 7490, 7742, 7673............(next 3 days) 7500, 7500, 7500 ????


not sure how you can look at those first 7 numbers and forecast it'll be 8200 by friday? are you taking something into account that i am not?
 
tunstallhill said:
well, unless that has been some major change in behaviour all of a sudden, or a series of massive super spreading events, i would predict the numbers for the next few days based on the trend of the previous 7, or 14 or whatever, so:

(previous 7 days) 7540, 7393, 8125, 7738, 7490, 7742, 7673............(next 3 days) 7500, 7500, 7500 ????


not sure how you can look at those first 7 numbers and forecast it'll be 8200 by friday? are you taking something into account that i am not?
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I was just looking at the general trend of 7 day average along with accounting for figures on a weekend usually being lower.

Pointless arguing about it. We will see in a few days. I have said Friday or Saturday to cover me a little ;)
 
DaveH said:
I was just looking at the general trend of 7 day average along with accounting for figures on a weekend usually being lower.

Pointless arguing about it. We will see in a few days. I have said Friday or Saturday to cover me a little ;)
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for the 7 day average to be 8200 by saturday, the next 4 days would have to have reported cases of around 8623 each day, as the last 3 days have been averaging 7635.

this would give an average over the 7 days of 8200.
 
What happened to the stats that used to tell you the ages of those that have unfortunately died and whether there was underlying conditions etc? Deaths aren’t reflecting case numbers compared to last year, vaccines work.
 

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