14th September Stats



DoctorMick said:
Wow, some pretty significant drops there. Admissions are actually at the lowest they’ve been for a month. @Locke's SAFC have you seen this data? Hospitalisations, the most reliable indicator because they don’t experience a reporting lag ( :lol: ), are dropping significantly.
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That's not what the chart is telling you. And, I'd have a look at Lambton Worm's daily threads for further clarification.
DaveH said:
That is interesting in that the admissions has not grown that much in the last month, but the total number in has grown more rapidly. It suggests people are staying in for longer.
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It's because a much larger proportion of those being hospitalised are over 60. That's the indicator that really matters for obvious reasons: they are much more unlikely to pull through. I posted the age breakdown on another thread. The number of over 75s being infected has more or less doubled in a month and as a result many more in that age group are being hospitalised.

The reason we ended up in a lockdown was not because of the under 50s being hospitalised.
 
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Locke's SAFC said:
That's not what the chart is telling you. And, I'd have a look at Lambton Worm's daily threads for further clarification.
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This graph doesn’t say:
a) hospitalisations over the last 3 days have dropped (correction, 9th to 12th as there is a couple of days lag on the England data as well) and are lower than the same day in the preceding week
b) the 7 day average for hospitalisations is dropping


You’ll have to explain that one to me cos it seems pretty clear unless this data can change but you said it can’t.
 
DoctorMick said:
This graph doesn’t say:
a) hospitalisations over the last 3 days have dropped (correction, 9th to 12th as there is a couple of days lag on the England data as well) and are lower than the same day in the preceding week
b) the 7 day average for hospitalisations is dropping


You’ll have to explain that one to me cos it seems pretty clear unless this data can change but you said it can’t.
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Aye, if you want to pick say there days in a chart that shows an upwards trend since the beginning of July, you can try and make it look like something it's not. That's why 7 day averages are used as a more reliable indicator. You will see that within that upward trend since the beginning of July there were similar small reductions and then it rose again.

There is that, and then there is the fact that the thread we're all replying to is UK figures.

And then, as said, what really matters is that the proportion of people most likely to be ill from the virus are making up a larger proportion of the total number. And then, the number of infections among those over 75 has doubled in a month.

So, whichever way you paint it, it is going to get worse before it gets better.

Only people who see a few greens on a post, or don't look beneath the headline figures, or take a few days' figures and draw a conclusion, or post graphs to support their argument one day and use those same graphs to support a different argument the next day, or simply aren't interested and are only here for an argument on a message board; will think it's going to get better in the coming weeks. It can't: more of the vulnerable are being infected; more of the vulnerable are being hospitalised. They're making up a larger proportion of the total number. These are the people who tell the story on what could happen in terms of restrictions because they're the people likely to require more and more hospital resources.
 
Locke's SAFC said:
Aye, if you want to pick say there days in a chart that shows an upwards trend since the beginning of July, you can try and make it look like something it's not. That's why 7 day averages are used as a more reliable indicator. You will see that within that upward trend since the beginning of July there were similar small reductions and then it rose again.

There is that, and then there is the fact that the thread we're all replying to is UK figures.

And then, as said, what really matters is that the proportion of people most likely to be ill from the virus are making up a larger proportion of the total number. And then, the number of infections among those over 75 has doubled in a month.

So, whichever way you paint it, it is going to get worse before it gets better.

Only people who see a few greens on a post, or don't look beneath the headline figures, or take a few days' figures and draw a conclusion, or post graphs to support their argument one day and use those same graphs to support a different argument the next day, or simply aren't interested and are only here for an argument on a message board; will think it's going to get better in the coming weeks. It can't: more of the vulnerable are being infected; more of the vulnerable are being hospitalised. They're making up a larger proportion of the total number. These are the people who tell the story on what could happen in terms of restrictions because they're the people likely to require more and more hospital resources.
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3 days figures? I mentioned the 7 day average which is also decreasing (lowest since 15th August) and doesn’t even include the last 3 days but no doubt you’ll dismiss that even tho it’s “a more reliable indicator”.

You’re right that the thread is uk figures but the England figures were brought up because you’ve continuously said the hospitalisation numbers have no lag but it turns out they’re 5 days behind cases in terms of reporting.
 
Locke's SAFC said:
Aye, if you want to pick say there days in a chart that shows an upwards trend since the beginning of July, you can try and make it look like something it's not. That's why 7 day averages are used as a more reliable indicator. You will see that within that upward trend since the beginning of July there were similar small reductions and then it rose again.

There is that, and then there is the fact that the thread we're all replying to is UK figures.

And then, as said, what really matters is that the proportion of people most likely to be ill from the virus are making up a larger proportion of the total number. And then, the number of infections among those over 75 has doubled in a month.

So, whichever way you paint it, it is going to get worse before it gets better.

Only people who see a few greens on a post, or don't look beneath the headline figures, or take a few days' figures and draw a conclusion, or post graphs to support their argument one day and use those same graphs to support a different argument the next day, or simply aren't interested and are only here for an argument on a message board; will think it's going to get better in the coming weeks. It can't: more of the vulnerable are being infected; more of the vulnerable are being hospitalised. They're making up a larger proportion of the total number. These are the people who tell the story on what could happen in terms of restrictions because they're the people likely to require more and more hospital resources.
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Hospital admissions for older groups are 12% to 18% of what they were at the peak and we have opened up society completely for 2 months. Why do you still peddle this nonsense?
 
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Locke's SAFC said:
Aye, if you want to pick say there days in a chart that shows an upwards trend since the beginning of July, you can try and make it look like something it's not. That's why 7 day averages are used as a more reliable indicator. You will see that within that upward trend since the beginning of July there were similar small reductions and then it rose again.

There is that, and then there is the fact that the thread we're all replying to is UK figures.

And then, as said, what really matters is that the proportion of people most likely to be ill from the virus are making up a larger proportion of the total number. And then, the number of infections among those over 75 has doubled in a month.

So, whichever way you paint it, it is going to get worse before it gets better.

Only people who see a few greens on a post, or don't look beneath the headline figures, or take a few days' figures and draw a conclusion, or post graphs to support their argument one day and use those same graphs to support a different argument the next day, or simply aren't interested and are only here for an argument on a message board; will think it's going to get better in the coming weeks. It can't: more of the vulnerable are being infected; more of the vulnerable are being hospitalised. They're making up a larger proportion of the total number. These are the people who tell the story on what could happen in terms of restrictions because they're the people likely to require more and more hospital resources.
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Told you months ago you are posting to the folk that don't give a ....
 
DoctorMick said:
3 days figures? I mentioned the 7 day average which is also decreasing (lowest since 15th August) and doesn’t even include the last 3 days but no doubt you’ll dismiss that even tho it’s “a more reliable indicator”.

You’re right that the thread is uk figures but the England figures were brought up because you’ve continuously said the hospitalisation numbers have no lag but it turns out they’re 5 days behind cases in terms of reporting.
Click to expand...

Wow, some pretty significant drops there. Admissions are actually at the lowest they’ve been for a month. @Locke's SAFC have you seen this data? Hospitalisations, the most reliable indicator because they don’t experience a reporting lag ( :lol: ), are dropping significantly.

The above is your original post. The 7 day average figures in the chart are pretty stable with a couple of small peaks and troughs, and so they are not dropping significantly which you claimed.

Also, as said, the proportion of those most likely to be at risk, being infected or hospitalised, are making up a larger proportion of the total number when compared with say 6 weeks ago, which is an even more important indicator as to how it is going.
 
Locke's SAFC said:
Aye, if you want to pick say there days in a chart that shows an upwards trend since the beginning of July, you can try and make it look like something it's not. That's why 7 day averages are used as a more reliable indicator. You will see that within that upward trend since the beginning of July there were similar small reductions and then it rose again.

There is that, and then there is the fact that the thread we're all replying to is UK figures.

And then, as said, what really matters is that the proportion of people most likely to be ill from the virus are making up a larger proportion of the total number. And then, the number of infections among those over 75 has doubled in a month.

So, whichever way you paint it, it is going to get worse before it gets better.

Only people who see a few greens on a post, or don't look beneath the headline figures, or take a few days' figures and draw a conclusion, or post graphs to support their argument one day and use those same graphs to support a different argument the next day, or simply aren't interested and are only here for an argument on a message board; will think it's going to get better in the coming weeks. It can't: more of the vulnerable are being infected; more of the vulnerable are being hospitalised. They're making up a larger proportion of the total number. These are the people who tell the story on what could happen in terms of restrictions because they're the people likely to require more and more hospital resources.
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You were Tolstoy in a previous life weren't ya.
 
Locke's SAFC said:
Wow, some pretty significant drops there. Admissions are actually at the lowest they’ve been for a month. @Locke's SAFC have you seen this data? Hospitalisations, the most reliable indicator because they don’t experience a reporting lag ( :lol: ), are dropping significantly.

The above is your original post. The 7 day average figures in the chart are pretty stable with a couple of small peaks and troughs, and so they are not dropping significantly which you claimed.

Also, as said, the proportion of those most likely to be at risk, being infected or hospitalised, are making up a larger proportion of the total number when compared with say 6 weeks ago, which is an even more important indicator as to how it is going.
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The numbers for 11th September are the lowest since 8th August, the numbers for 12th are also lower than any other day since 8th August excluding 11th September. 7 day average the lowest it has been in a month. Significant.

Interesting that you're moving from being adamant that hospitalisations are the key indicator that we should all hang our hat on to "what really matters is that the proportion of people most likely to be ill from the virus are making up a larger proportion of the total number." because the hospitalisation data doesn't marry up with the doom and gloom you're predicting.
 
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Encouraging numbers when you compare to a week or two ago.

It’s been a rollercoaster for the last few months though, been up and down constantly. Hopefully we’re at the endgame now but I said the same thing around two months ago.
 

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