“Normal”



southstander said:
Fail to plan, plan to fail.

My guess is summer with a following wind and people not behaving like complete knob heads before then.

Assuming 80% take up for herd immunity, you have to vaccinate 53 million people twice.
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Have you not taken off the millions who have had it since February? plus by end of March at 40k to 50k a day infections thats another 4 to 5 million with immunity on top. Throw in another group of people who do not get infected at all due to natural immunity. Also a lot of those people who have been infected since February will be those that have been going to work, school, shops etc generally those that are out and about.
 
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Hoping April cos me and my mate thought that would be far enough away to start getting tickets for gigs again and it's coming round a lot quicker than I thought it would.

Also I've had one birthday locked down and it would be nice to get to the pub for the next one.

There was a thread on here the other day that someone posted a proposed timeline that would see those that want it vaccinated by then. Overly optimistic for me but things have been moving quick, so who knows. Once they've got the go ahead I can't imagine they'd waste any time with getting us jabbed and back to work.
 
Kevsgreat said:
Hoping April cos me and my mate thought that would be far enough away to start getting tickets for gigs again and it's coming round a lot quicker than I thought it would.

Also I've had one birthday locked down and it would be nice to get to the pub for the next one.

There was a thread on here the other day that someone posted a proposed timeline that would see those that want it vaccinated by then. Overly optimistic for me but things have been moving quick, so who knows. Once they've got the go ahead I can't imagine they'd waste any time with getting us jabbed and back to work.
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Great positive post, miserable twats be along soon to tell us we will be in lockdown until 2067
42 said:
Once all the over 50's are vaccinated. Late spring / early summer should be realistic
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Aye surely this is the craic, the biggest killer of COVID is age
 
Frijj said:
We don't need to vaccinate the whole country. Roughly speaking, we need to vaccine - at a minimum - the 17.2m people who qualify for the flu vaccine through either age or clinical risk.

Now that is no small undertaking, but through a combination of general practice, hospitals and vaccination hubs we could do it.

Let's take County Durham - the North East's largest local authority by population - as an example.

County Durham has 174,000 patients who qualify for a flu vaccination through either age or clinical risk.

To vaccinate every single one of those people within a 30-day period would require 5,800 vaccinations per day, every day.

County Durham has around 65 GP practices, meaning on average (though they vary significantly in size) each one would provide 89 a day.

That's exceptionally achievable. Larger practices would have to vaccinate something like 6,000 people would need to hit 200 a day, whilst some smaller practices could get through their entire list in a week - hell, Durham's smallest practice has about 600 eligible patients.

GP practices already have the skills, the experience and the organisation to deliver vaccination programmes on a large scale. They do the flu vaccine every year.

Hospitals already have the skills, the experience and the organisation to deliver vaccination programmes to their staff. They do the flu vaccine every year.

The skills are there, the numbers are achievable. As long as the logistics themselves do not become an issue, such as keeping the vaccine cold or providing transportation and storage, I think it's exceptionally achievable to vaccinate the core group of patients who are going to need the vaccine.

Vaccinating the rest of the adult population is going to be somewhat harder and take quite a bit longer.
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Hi @Frijj are they not talking about using military and even veterinary support as well - would these make much of a difference
 
Frijj said:
Absolutely they could. Every single qualified and competent vaccinator they can spare, would help.

Wouldn’t fancy a vet doing mine though. Probably wake up three hours later with your balls missing.
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Just give me the kit and I ll self administer if it gets me to Tenerife next year.
 
I'm not sure we are looking at the full picture on this thread. As someone who is classed as clinically extremely vulnerable, I do appreciate and understand the concern regarding deaths from covid as the primary issue but there is another side to things. While it is true that the under 40s are extremely unlikely to die as a result of covid, there is the issue of long covid among younger people. There seem to be several types of long covid and some may resolve themselves over time but if the long covid is neurological such as chronic fatigue syndrome then the condition may be for life. If such a form of long covid became common then the effects on society and the economy will be bad over the longer term. One medical expert I read earlier said that mass vaccination may not start until the summer.

We have to be careful what we wish for and make sure we don't run ahead of ourselves. While the saving of lives among the vulnerable is essential we have to be careful we don't sacrifice the long term health of the younger generation. We will get there. There is hope but let's remain patient. We've been through as lot this year, a few more months of being careful wont harm which is why I still think it will be later next year before we see a return to true normality.
Then we can all have the mother of all parties.
 
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Scottish Government have said 1 million by end of January. That is around 15% of population, which accounts for the most vulnerable. 6 weeks to make sure it is having desired effect, while rolling out another 1 million. Back to close to normal by Easter.
 

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