Digsys dinner
Winger
When do you lot think we will be able to live. “Normal” by that I mean be able to meet up with multiple households in pubs etc, I’m going April
“Normal”
- Thread starter Digsys dinner
- Start date
SurreyMackem
Striker
I am hoping I will be able to go on holiday in March but I wouldn't expect any sort of normal until June.
Mercia Blackcat
Striker
April? Not a cat in hell's chance.
Next November.
Next November.
gegsongegsonlegs
Midfield
Hopefully you are right mate.. can’t wait to have a “normal “ day out..
But if your prediction is right then vaccine etc have been successful and we might just have gotten the upper hand on this virus.
What makes you think that mate, genuinely curious
Edinburgh Black Cat
Striker
If you mean 2022 then you're probably right
Mercia Blackcat
Striker
The logistics of administering a double dose to enough people indicate to me it will be some time yet. Next Summer will help but it will be the autumn before we are back to normal imo.
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Digsys dinner
Winger
Fuck me a depression session on here 
don’t we have a vaccine being rolled out within weeks?
don’t we have a vaccine being rolled out within weeks?
D
Deleted member 32773
Guest
Next March/April
Digsys dinner
Winger
Sgt Pepper
Striker
I’d snap your hands off right now for April, fear it’ll be longer than that but hopefully on that journey there we get gradual lifts of the restrictions along the way.
gegsongegsonlegs
Midfield
Cheers
Have you stopped to consider the logistics required to vaccinate 60+ million people twice?Fuck me a depression session on here
Silly Point
Winger
Autumn next year imo but I’m hoping by April we can have something similar to last summer, plus reduced crowds at county cricket
Hank Scorpio
Striker
If the Oxford vaccine is safe, it will be rolled out extremely quickly and we will see normality starting to return in March.
Mercia Blackcat
Striker
Well roughly speaking to achieve herd immunity we will need to vaccinate around 40 million people with 2 doses. That's around 80 million doses. That will take time. Assuming we require herd immunity before returning to fully normal.
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Mercia Blackcat
Striker
It would be great but hope wont speed up production, availability, delivery and vaccination. Once the vaccine is available its all on the logistics.
Still the fact effective vaccines are on the way does give us hope for later in the year.
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Digsys dinner
Winger
When these lockdowns are over am I f***ing going for a pint with you, laugh a minute
Yeah I think this will be the craic
We don't need to vaccinate the whole country. Roughly speaking, we need to vaccine - at a minimum - the 17.2m people who qualify for the flu vaccine through either age or clinical risk.
Now that is no small undertaking, but through a combination of general practice, hospitals and vaccination hubs we could do it.
Let's take County Durham - the North East's largest local authority by population - as an example.
County Durham has 174,000 patients who qualify for a flu vaccination through either age or clinical risk.
To vaccinate every single one of those people within a 30-day period would require 5,800 vaccinations per day, every day.
County Durham has around 65 GP practices, meaning on average (though they vary significantly in size) each one would provide 89 a day.
That's exceptionally achievable. Larger practices would have to vaccinate something like 6,000 people would need to hit 200 a day, whilst some smaller practices could get through their entire list in a week - hell, Durham's smallest practice has about 600 eligible patients.
GP practices already have the skills, the experience and the organisation to deliver vaccination programmes on a large scale. They do the flu vaccine every year.
Hospitals already have the skills, the experience and the organisation to deliver vaccination programmes to their staff. They do the flu vaccine every year.
The skills are there, the numbers are achievable. As long as the logistics themselves do not become an issue, such as keeping the vaccine cold or providing transportation and storage, I think it's exceptionally achievable to vaccinate the core group of patients who are going to need the vaccine.
Vaccinating the rest of the adult population is going to be somewhat harder and take quite a bit longer.
Now that is no small undertaking, but through a combination of general practice, hospitals and vaccination hubs we could do it.
Let's take County Durham - the North East's largest local authority by population - as an example.
County Durham has 174,000 patients who qualify for a flu vaccination through either age or clinical risk.
To vaccinate every single one of those people within a 30-day period would require 5,800 vaccinations per day, every day.
County Durham has around 65 GP practices, meaning on average (though they vary significantly in size) each one would provide 89 a day.
That's exceptionally achievable. Larger practices would have to vaccinate something like 6,000 people would need to hit 200 a day, whilst some smaller practices could get through their entire list in a week - hell, Durham's smallest practice has about 600 eligible patients.
GP practices already have the skills, the experience and the organisation to deliver vaccination programmes on a large scale. They do the flu vaccine every year.
Hospitals already have the skills, the experience and the organisation to deliver vaccination programmes to their staff. They do the flu vaccine every year.
The skills are there, the numbers are achievable. As long as the logistics themselves do not become an issue, such as keeping the vaccine cold or providing transportation and storage, I think it's exceptionally achievable to vaccinate the core group of patients who are going to need the vaccine.
Vaccinating the rest of the adult population is going to be somewhat harder and take quite a bit longer.
Mercia Blackcat
Striker
It's not that bad mate. My grandparents wet through WW1 and the 1918-1919 flu pandemic. My parents went through WW2 and the swine flu epidemic of the early 1950s. I'm sure we can hang on till the spring and with the help of a warm summer will have turned the corner in just over a year. We can do that.
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