Would this team beat the Mags?

[Rise Sir Axl Rose]

This thread is painful. Painful
As you were

 

[hardtackle]

The top is stronger, the bottom is weaker. It is a great achievement for NUFC to make top 4 as there are more strong sides than there were in the 90's but equally the bottom 6 is statistical weaker - not just one team (i.e. DCFC) but as a collective they are weaker. The average quality is likely higher (i.e. top increased more than bottom has declined) but since all we are discussing is SAFC staying up all we are interested in is finishing 4th bottom of a ten team league.

I will leave you think about the data rather than you coming back with kneejerk reactions and making it all about NUFC bias.

Erm, I was not making it all about NUFC bias whatsoever. I actually agree with some elements of what you said in this post. But if you checked all my comments my view has been consistent. The standard of the PL overall is not in some sudden decline this season. It is not rational to say that it is (as many people here do) simply because NUFC are doing well. You appear to acknowledge this.

I would note that this conversation was not about Sunderland staying up initially but my view on that remains as it was when I initially said that you will need to invest heavily (and well) to hope to stay up. Why? because this league is tougher than many people suddenly (ie this season) think it is.

 

[Tuno]

You’ve done well this season there’s no disputing that…. However the league has been lifting , even a sensible Mag would agree. Be telling if you can replicate it next season

We're probably going to need 72 points if we want to finish top 4, it's only needed more than that 5 times in the 28 seasons the PL has had 20 teams to reach that position previously.

 

[splorty]

As other have suggested here it doesn't matter if you can win a derby or not because if you lose Sunderland fans will claim it is not a level playing field so the result does not count/does not matter, and in doing so have convinced themselves that it is a no-lose scenario for Sunderland. Of course should you scrape together a win it will claimed it as the biggest underdog victory since David vs Goliath.

The more interesting question (and the one I eagerly await seeing answered) is how will you do against all the other Premier League teams?

I have been reliably informed on this forum that this season the PL is terrible and NUFC are only 3rd because of a combination of luck and everyone else being crap. Of course this is not true, the only team that is really significantly underachieving is Chelsea. Citeh continue to be Citeh, Arsenal and Man U are both having their best season in years. Liverpool started badly but look strong again now, Spurs are as consistently inconsistent as ever. And now there is NUFC, Brighton and Villa who can compete with these teams. So the fact is the PL is in fact more competitive then ever before.

I am pretty sure that if Sunderland get promoted this season the standard of the PL will have miraculously improved over the summer and next season no one will be saying the PL is crap because it become impossible to make that argument when you are getting hammered by Brentford (yet another good team)

The reality is you are not just far behind Newcastle, you are far behind all the teams in the PL and need at least about 8 players to have any hope of staying in the PL. The choice that the club will be faced with will be either doing what Forest did and bringing in lots of players in a gamble to stay in the PL, or playing safe thereby virtually ensuring relegation.

Some elements of truth here. The standard hasn’t really dropped but those at the top have bunched up somewhat. However the current squad (when fully fit) could finish anywhere between 10th and 20th imo. Maybe they haven’t overachieved this year. Maybe they are just starting to click. Who knows… but in watching football for 47 years some of the football I have witnessed from this team has been the best I’ve ever seen. We all have an opinion as to what would happen if we went up, but no one really knows.

You’re right re the Derby. It would be completely lop sided in your favour to the point we can’t lose. If we got any result it eld be pretty amazing. You lot, even if you win, have proved nowt other than money talks. 1992 and the premier league was the ruination of football and is why I’m not too worried about going up I r enjoyed this year so much.

 

[hardtackle]

Some elements of truth here. The standard hasn’t really dropped but those at the top have bunched up somewhat. However the current squad (when fully fit) could finish anywhere between 10th and 20th imo. Maybe they haven’t overachieved this year. Maybe they are just starting to click. Who knows… but in watching football for 47 years some of the football I have witnessed from this team has been the best I’ve ever seen. We all have an opinion as to what would happen if we went up, but no one really knows.

You’re right re the Derby. It would be completely lop sided in your favour to the point we can’t lose. If we got any result it eld be pretty amazing. You lot, even if you win, have proved nowt other than money talks. 1992 and the premier league was the ruination of football and is why I’m not too worried about going up I r enjoyed this year so much.

A fair and balanced response.

 

[Deleted member 1169]

Erm, I was not making it all about NUFC bias whatsoever. I actually agree with some elements of what you said in this post. But if you checked all my comments my view has been consistent. The standard of the PL overall is not in some sudden decline this season. It is not rational to say that it is (as many people here do) simply because NUFC are doing well. You appear to acknowledge this.

I would note that this conversation was not about Sunderland staying up initially but my view on that remains as it was when I initially said that you will need to invest heavily (and well) to hope to stay up. Why? because this league is tougher than many people suddenly (ie this season) think it is.

But this is just your opinion. The data tells you the bottom teams are earning fewer points. The average quality may be increasing but the lower half is garbage. For info Southampton managed 11 seasons in the Prem with a net spend of 205m, less than 20m per season. That is hardly heavy investment given the TV money.

 

[Ohnonotagain]

With a full strength team no we wouldn't, not yet anyway.

 

[hardtackle]

But this is just your opinion. The data tells you the bottom teams are earning fewer points. The average quality may be increasing but the lower half is garbage. For info Southampton managed 11 seasons in the Prem with a net spend of 205m, less than 20m per season. That is hardly heavy investment given the TV money.

And everything you say is just your opinion too you haven't really shown data that proves your point. You can possibly demonstrate how garbage the lower half is next season. I shall await that eagerly....

 

[Deleted member 1169]

And everything you say is just your opinion too you haven't really shown data that proves your point. You can possibly demonstrate how garbage the lower half is next season. I shall await that eagerly....

I have given data that supports it. Unfortunately you are unable to interpret the data.

Anyway, not wasting my time on a stranger any longer.

 

[wigwams]

Using an economic concept - concentration ratio - when NUFC finished 2nd in 1997 the top 10 accounted for 59% of the points, this year they have accounted for 65%. The bottom of the table is gash. The top has got better with the top 6 accounting for 42% compared to 39% in 1997. In the first year of the PL the top 10 only accounted for 55% of points and the top 4 36% of points. HHI comes to the same conclusion that over time the PL has become more concentrated in the top 10. This isn't an anti NUFC message but hopefully reinforces the fact that a SAFC side that may scrape up essentially has to compete in a 10 team league of sides that are not as strong as they were in the 1990's.

Doesn’t it go hand in hand with financial gap between top and bottom? I know it’ll be more complex than that but there must be some correlation

And everything you say is just your opinion too you haven't really shown data that proves your point. You can possibly demonstrate how garbage the lower half is next season. I shall await that eagerly....

Just your opinion

Literal facts

 

[hardtackle]

Doesn’t it go hand in hand with financial gap between top and bottom? I know it’ll be more complex than that but there must be some correlation

Just your opinion

Literal facts

What is a literal fact? That it is likely that you need to invest heavily in your team to survive in the PL?

 

[Biglicks]

With investment in the right 3 or 4 players why not…..
This squad would be a free hit but no.

 

[hardtackle]

I have given data that supports it. Unfortunately you are unable to interpret the data.

Anyway, not wasting my time on a stranger any longer.

Agreed. I am not wasting further time on this chat either. We can agree to disagree.

 

[Deleted member 1169]

Doesn’t it go hand in hand with financial gap between top and bottom? I know it’ll be more complex than that but there must be some correlation

Exactly. Perhaps a better phrase would be "disparity". In 1992 the ratio of sum of top half points over sum of bottom half points was 126%. This season it is 180%. Overall every team may be better than in 1992 but the relative improvement of the top 10 relative to the top 10 is significant (180% v 126%). Likewise in 1992 the ratio of top 4/bottom points was 151%, now it is 255%. The gap between haves and have nots has never been bigger. But IF we went up we wouldn't be looking at top half or top 4 merely survival and as the data (in my opinion) confirms the bottom half are winning relatively fewer points which makes survival "easier".

 

[Keith S30S]

The rest of the league being “lifting” isn’t our problem. I’d say it’s ultra competitive and quite a few teams have stepped up their game , Brighton, Villa to name 2 others . Chelsea have spent a lot of money but been mis managed .Spurs nothing special , Liverpool coming good, Man Utd are nothing special just 3 “names “ that folk seem to think have a right to be top 6 . Maybe they do but under performing is their problem , we have had a tremendous season regardless of where we finish . Qualification for Europe was maybe an aim from day 1 of this season and we have achieved it so job done , rest is a massive bonus “if” achieved.

You've basically just made a case for the weakness of the league.

Villa were awful for half a season and sacked their manager! You are bulling them up!

Liverpool have had their worse season in several years!

Chelsea have a chance of finishing in the bottom half of the table for the first time in 20 years!

At least 4 regular champions league teams have seriously underperformed this season. Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea and Spurs. 2 have sacked their managers.

Hopefully next season 4 of the big 6 won't have stinkers.

 

[Pukkapad 2]

You've basically just made a case for the weakness of the league.

Villa were awful for half a season and sacked their manager! You are bulling them up!

Liverpool have had their worse season in several years!

Chelsea have a chance of finishing in the bottom half of the table for the first time in 20 years!

At least 4 regular champions league teams have seriously underperformed this season. Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea and Spurs. 2 have sacked their managers.

Hopefully next season 4 of the big 6 won't have stinkers.

Yep and none of it our fault is it , we weren’t expected to be anywhere near the top 4 . Anyhoo get here and you will see how tough it is to win a game , don’t underestimate any team , this football is on a different level to the championship.

They have unlimited money to spend. We don't have a pot to piss in. The outcome isn't rocket science. Fkn awful thread.

Yep

 

[RAW-dave]

Might have to hang on until season after next to have a go

 

[ODIN]

I honestly believe it would, especially with Ross and Ballard back.

Absolutely not

 

[StanleyRednWhite]

mags stink of piss

 

[Orange]

No, I don’t think so.