Russia invading Ukraine (NEWS/UPDATES) - Please put sensitive content behind a spoiler

What’s promised and what’s been delivered
 


BBC article on Russian volunteers sent to Ukraine:

"Every week, Russia sends hundreds of armed men, whom Moscow calls volunteers, to Ukraine. As it became known to the BBC, now it is the detachments made up of volunteers who are fighting in the most active sectors of the front. At the same time, the preparation of new recruits before sending lasts only three to seven days."

 
UK Defense Ministry: Ukrainian coastal defense neutralizes Russia's ability for sea control.

That would be the first time Ukraine has used Harpoon in anger in the conflict.

They've also taken out three of the natural gas rigs Russia appropriated during the annexation of Crimea (media were quiet about that one at the time).


You can still see the fires on NASA Firmap.
 
Some suggestions that the Us Himars are now in Ukraine. The US said it would be by the 1st July but they gave a vague date being the interest Russia has in destroying these.

Some of the video of recorded strikes suggests they have arrived.

May only be 7 (4 X Us and 3 x UK) but these things are an absolute beast. They fire 6 or 12 missiles in a pod in 1 minute. 5 minutes to reload. A truck can carry 4 pods so essentially just one will go through 2.5 trucks worth of resupply an hour. 60 trucks a day to keep them fully supplied.

X even the 4 US ones and they will need a gargantuan supply effort just to keep those 4 busy.

But even with scoot and shoot tactics to avoid being destroyed they have such a good range they will be able to hit Russia right behind the front line. Rail terminals, supply lines, ammo dumps etc…

Keep them safe and supplied and the 4 alone will rain down an absurd amount of fire on Russian positions daily.

In theory over 5,000 precision strikes a day. 10,000 when the Uk 3 arrive
 
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Something to ponder perhaps:

Last Soviet occupier left Czechoslovakia 31 years ago
The last Soviet military transport left Czechoslovakia on June 21, 1991. (Source: TASR)

The story of Czechoslovakia's occupation began in summer 1968, bringing political reforms in the communist country to an end. People did not expect the invasion.

It took 23 years to end the occupation.

June 21 became a red-letter day not too long ago to mark the exit of the last Soviet occupiers from Czechoslovakia.

1968 Invasion: Here's a timeline of the 1967-1969 events, including a reform process known as the Prague Spring, the invasion, and normalisation.

Quote: "The 23-year-long 'temporary' stay held us hostage behind the Iron Curtain — and it taught us that turning a blind eye to aggression dooms entire generations," said President Zuzana Čaputová on June 21, 2022.


 
The war could be won through the loss of technical personnel. It takes months to train a combat pilot, if not years. All UKR has to do is keep up the attrition. My main worry is still manpower on the ground, Russia has a massive advantage in this respect. I still believe that it will come down to the will of the Russian people.
 
A big rise in tanks and APV's which probably suggests the HIMARS are on the field of play. Russian troops daily dead has been 150-200 for a couple of weeks and now up to 300 from yesterday. Big news if accurate for the trajectory of losses with the new hardware.


I was reading earlier that the personal death count could be closer to 40,000. This is because they are possibly not reporting the full number of deaths in APC's etc.

I suspect if things continue how they are going we will see the collapse of the Russian Federation as we know it, and potentially each Federal Subject becoming its own country.

If we see political upheaval in Chechnya then I am certain this will happen it is not helped by the fact that a lot of the soldiers that Putin is sending to Ukraine appear to be from the Caucasus region, which would leave them open to a civil war and change of leadership and political direction
 
The Telegraph was reporting an overnight operation to liberate Snake Island. The Russians claim they shot down fifteen drones there yesterday. They also reckon Ukraine tried this back in May and lost a load of aircraft and special forces (no photographic evidence either way).

While strategically important I'm not sure how easily Ukraine could hold Snake Island. Its a risky place to get supplies in and out of.
 
The Telegraph was reporting an overnight operation to liberate Snake Island. The Russians claim they shot down fifteen drones there yesterday. They also reckon Ukraine tried this back in May and lost a load of aircraft and special forces (no photographic evidence either way).

While strategically important I'm not sure how easily Ukraine could hold Snake Island. Its a risky place to get supplies in and out of.

Don't think it's a case of Ukraine holding Snake Island but a case of stopping the Russians from holding it. Just had a look at how big it is and it's about 42 football pitches so considering it's about 20 miles from mainland Ukraine you wouldn't want to be there if Ukraine decided to saturate it with howitzer fire.

Just make it a killing zone for anyone foolish enough to think they can hold it unmolested.
 

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