smb election results prediction competition 2010.

[My Boy Harry]

Originally Posted by Locke's SAFC

Tories form the government with a majority. No hung parliament.

Never mind what the polls say.

Werent the polls hopelessly wrong last time?

[Gingga]

I will be glad when its over, i am sick to the back teeth of all this lying shite from all the crooks that we wont see again till the next election comes around.

[watermonkey]

Originally Posted by janiep

Tory 278
Labour 261
Lib Dem 82
Other 29

be interesting to see votes polled and seats won


~22k lab
~44 con
~96 lib
votes

per seat...........Last time (if i have understood correctly)

[janiep]

Originally Posted by watermonkey

be interesting to see votes polled and seats won


~22k lab
~44 con
~96 lib
votes

per seat...........Last time (if i have understood correctly)

I actually just nicked my figures from one of the latest opinion polls. In reality, I think the Tories will win outright.

[sbc]

In a repeat of 1992, exit polls on bbc will say hung parliament cons 10-20 short, but a series of 'unlikely' gains will get the cons into majority territory by 2am - all they need is a repeat of some results like the crewe by-election (and don't see why they won't) and they are home and dry

[Medulla]

I hate to boast like...

[watermonkey]

Originally Posted by Medulla

I hate to boast like...

did you win, are you bluffing, who scored it? i was rubbish, i thought lib dems would win a load more seats, but although their vote went up they lost seats.....this is why i keep out of betting shops and just bet for fun

[Medulla]

Originally Posted by watermonkey

did you win, are you bluffing, who scored it? i was rubbish, i thought lib dems would win a load more seats, but although their vote went up they lost seats.....this is why i keep out of betting shops and just bet for fun

Got the Tory seats dead on, overestimated the Lib Dems by two and underestimated Labour by six.

What do I win?

[watermonkey]

Originally Posted by Medulla

Got the Tory seats dead on, overestimated the Lib Dems by two and underestimated Labour by six.

What do I win?

as you live in london, looks like you will be able to enjoy your pint from shepherd88 - well done

[riffraff]

Originally Posted by Medulla

I hate to boast like...

Awesome stuff from Medulla!

Ive just been working the results out (ignoring the seat thats being decided next month btw). Ill post the full results in a few minutes when there in order.

Reet then the final results are in (cant be arsed to wait for the other one).

Medulla: 0(con),6(lab),2(libdem),5 (others). Which gives a total of 13 minus the 27 day handicap and a final score of -16.

Rex: 15, 15, 3, 2. Total 32-27= final score of 5.
Buzzer: 9, 7, 13, 4. Total 33-27= final score of 6.

Gold Medal: Medulla -16.
Silver Medal: Rex 5.
Bronze medal: Buzzer 6.

Excellent preformances Im sure everyone agrees. Interesting thing is taht the people who entered on the first day which was a full 27 days before the election were ALL more accurate than those who entered on polling day even before the "handicap" was factored in!
Which maybe tells us that the "medias influence meant less than initial gut reactions to the whole affair.

Reet then the full results below, with the scores before "date handicapping" in brackets. SMBrs below the dotted line entered on election day thus no date handicap score was applied.

Medulla -16 (11)
Rex 5 (32)
Buzzer 6 (33)
Porridge 14 (41)
Lordy 18 (45)
Cockney Mackem 22 (49)
RiffRaff 46 (73)
Mackem Legend 48 (75)
-----------------------------------------------------------
JanieP 57
Lou Carpenter 69
Rowley2 75
Dan The Man 85
Lankaster Merrin 108
Lobon 109
WaterMonkey 113
Shepherd88 155
Makum102 195
------------------------------------------------------------

Those that predicted 27 days before the election were wrong by an average of 44.8 seats while the election day guessers were wrong by 107.3 seats.

Only JanieP and Lou Carpenter of the "on the day" entrants were as accurate as the worst of the 9th April entrants and Janie admiited upthread hat she just copied her figures from a poll.

I think the media skewed peoples perceptions of the realities of the publics intentions here.

So we now know that Medulla is the SMB's "in the know" person regarding British Election Results. Stick a few bob on next time marra cos thats an amazing performance.

Apoloies to Lou Carpenter of the final dayers who was more accurate than one of the 9th April entrants and to Janiep who bettered two of em.