player valuation

[MonkeyLove]

Im quite surprised by the number of people on here questioning the cost of NZog and suggested it is over priced.

There was a thread on a Villa forum last night comparing his stats last season to Downing and Young and they were favourable. In a much poorer side and he is over a year younger then them both.

I know everyone loves a bargain but to me even at 9 or 10 million is a very very decent price. There is a difference between cost and value but its the value thats important and even at that price if you tied him up on a 3/4 year deal in the current climate he would probably instantly be worth twice that.

[GyanTheMan]

Originally Posted by MonkeyLove

Im quite surprised by the number of people on here questioning the cost of NZog and suggested it is over priced.

There was a thread on a Villa forum last night comparing his stats last season to Downing and Young and they were favourable. In a much poorer side and he is over a year younger then them both.

I know everyone loves a bargain but to me even at 9 or 10 million is a very very decent price. There is a difference between cost and value but its the value thats important and even at that price if you tied him up on a 3/4 year deal in the current climate he would probably instantly be worth twice that.

mint

[Cheddar Collar.]

Seems a fair price to me too marra.

He maybe in the last year of his contract but so was Ashley Young & he went to Manure for around £15M....

£10M isn't a great deal of money in football terms for someone proven in the Prem who will score & create goals on a regular basis.

[sb022x1030]

Good for Villa

[Il Postino Pat]

It's the fact that he would be available on a free transfer next summer. Not a problem if you are the only club interested and can wait, it is if you need a left winger and are not the only club interested.

[chr1s1973]

Aye, but he wouldn't be as you'd have to pay a fortune to pay up his contract.

If say Downing moves for 20m, you take off the fact he's almost 2 years older than him, add the English player premium. If you then take in to account he only has one year left on his contract, it's hard to justify paying half of the Downing fee, even ignoring that seems like an over-payment and assuming that they are of an equal standard.

So yes, I think 10m is over the top for him.

[Cheddar Collar.]

Originally Posted by Il Postino Pat

It's the fact that he would be available on a free transfer next summer. Not a problem if you are the only club interested and can wait, it is if you need a left winger and are not the only club interested.

For me we would have no chance if we waited until his contract expired, his wage demands & signing on fee would be fook'n huge.

I think we will act now if we are generally interested......

[MonkeyLove]

Io

Originally Posted by chr1s1973

Aye, but he wouldn't be as you'd have to pay a fortune to pay up his contract.

If say Downing moves for 20m, you take off the fact he's almost 2 years older than him, add the English player premium. If you then take in to account he only has one year left on his contract, it's hard to justify paying half of the Downing fee, even ignoring that seems like an over-payment and assuming that they are of an equal standard.

So yes, I think 10m is over the top for him.

This was my point though. If he still had 3 years remaining Wigan would quite likely be, and probably justifyably in relative terms to other current transfers, asking 20 million for him.

The 9 or 10 is already a huge knock down price as in reality you wouldnt get a proven prem player with his record at his age for that if he wasnt in the final year.

But to an extent its irrelavant to me whoever gets him even at ten million could quite easily argue on a long deal in the current climate he is worth twice that. So to me its in no ways overpriced

[Kernowmac]

the reason that a players value drops when they near their contract is because they will be available on a free i a years time or whatever, but if you need that player now, it has no bearing on the transfer for the club involved. Also, that value changes the moment the player signs a new contract so it is not that relevant really. If you have two very similar players but one has a year remaining and another has three remaining, you may be able to get the former for less money, but when is all said and done, they will be worth the same after they sign.

So although Nzogbia's valuation should drop because he is nearing the end of his contract, if the selling club is not prepared to drop the price and will only entertain full market value, then we should go for him anyway. if he had four years on his contract and we could get him for £10 million we would all be saying what a great deal it is for the club.

[Hulkster]

You are still signing the same player however long is left on his contract.

Maybe if you are the only club in for a player you can use the threat of signing him on a free, but once there is competition I doubt it makes much of a difference.

If you sign them in a 'free' you end up paying most of whatever you've saved in increased fees and wages anyway.